Free Republic

All things being equal, Republicans should feel reasonably good about winning the Senate in seven weeks. They currently hold a polling lead in six Democratic-held seats. They are within five points in another four seats, and mid-September polling often underestimates the position of the ultimate victor. Meanwhile, the two seats that were long thought to be vulnerable -- Georgia and Kentucky -- look reasonably firm for them. Pat Roberts But this is the Republican party we are talking about, and all else is not equal. Because of Kansas. A new poll by Democratic polling outfit Public Policy Polling puts incumbent...

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is breaking with conservative Sens. Ted Cruz and Mike Lee over the legislative prospects for the post-election lame duck congressional session. While Cruz (R-Texas) and Lee (R-Utah) have been raising alarm surrounding any significant legislation moving through Congress during the lame duck, McConnell told reporters on Tuesday that he had little fear that controversial legislation would be jammed through by senators and representatives that just lost their seats. “There’s almost no likelihood that the House will become Democratic. So I am personally not fearful that bad things will happen to the country during the lame...

Hat tip to our friend Mike Flynn of Breitbart for his column noting that top political odds maker Nate Silver has lowered his forecast for a GOP takeover of the Senate. Two weeks ago, noted Flynn, Silver estimated the GOP had a 64% chance of winning a Senate majority. On Tuesday, Silver lowered his estimate to 55%. The landscape still favors the GOP, says Flynn, but the trend-lines are ominous. As Mike Flynn and others, including CHQ Chairman Richard A. Viguerie, have noted “the GOP could take the majority by simply winning Senate races in states carried by Mitt Romney.”...

House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) criticized Republicans who disagree with his positions on Tuesday, telling members of the International Franchise Association, “I have a few knuckleheads in my conference.” The jibe came in the midst of remarks on the dangers of a politicized National Labor Relations Board with the power to exercise the will of whichever party controls the Oval Office at a given time. Reforming President Barack Obama’s NLRB has been a top Republican priority for some time. From the Senate floor Tuesday, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said that a Republican-controlled Senate could make that goal a reality....

Democrats are now (very slightly) favored to hold the Senate majority on Nov. 4, according to Election Lab, The Post's statistical model of the 2014 midterm elections. Election Lab puts Democrats' chances of retaining their majority at 51 percent — a huge change from even a few months ago, when the model predicted that Republicans had a better than 80 percent chance of winning the six seats they need to take control. (Worth noting: When the model showed Republicans as overwhelming favorites, our model builders — led by George Washington University's John Sides — warned that the model could and...

I’m not Barack Obama. I disagree with him on guns, coal and the EPA.” No. That sentence was not uttered by a right-wing, tea-party, Republican. It was uttered by a Democrat in Kentucky. Barack Obama is, apparently, so politically toxic that moderate Democrats are not content with merely distancing themselves from him; they are now actively campaigning against the Democrat who lives at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. In fact, the ad is downright convincing… Frank Underwood would be proud: Alright. So, Democrat Alison Grimes is no fan of team Obama. Got it. Of course, this kinda raises a few questions, doesn’t...

Independent Greg Orman has opened up a lead in his effort to unseat Republican Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts, according to a new poll from Democratic firm Public Policy Polling. Orman leads Roberts 41-34, with Democrat Chad Taylor — who announced plans to end his campaign earlier this month — capturing 6 percent of the vote. Libertarian Randall Batson earned 4 percent support in the poll, which was first provided to the Huffington Post. The automated phone and online survey of 1,328 likely voters was taken between Sept. 11 and Sept. 14. The margin of error is plus-or-minus 2.7 percentage points....

In a video first released to Breitbart on Tuesday, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) announced his effort to combat President Barack Obama’s potential executive amnesty action, which could come following November’s midterm elections. Viewers are encouraged to visit StopObamasAmnesty.com to sign a petition. “Sen. Ted Cruz is leading the fight to secure the border,” the video explained. “Stop Obama’s amnesty and celebrate legal immigration. But he needs your help to hold Obama and Senate Democrats accountable.” The amnesty effort from Obama would likely include an expansion of his so-called Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program and apply it to an...

Emerging from a GOP leadership meeting Monday evening, Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy signaled that, after the midterm elections, there’s a decent chance the House holds a new vote authorizing military force in the Middle East. Asked during an impromptu hallway interview with a gaggle of reporters whether the House would be working on a new Authorization for Use of Military Force to combat Islamic State terrorists, McCarthy said that “after November,” he thought there would be an “opportunity” to at least debate an AUMF. “I know a lot of members would want start to have that debate, or at least...

As the November elections approach, we’ve heard nothing but deafening silence from the GOP as to why the electorate should put Congress in its hands. Now, I have nothing against the ages-old stratagem of not interrupting an enemy in the process of making enormous mistakes. But, we’re not simply considering a ‘my team good’ vs. ‘their team bad’ situation, as if the outcome was nothing more than a sporting event to be remembered until the next big game. Some fundamental American freedoms have been under assault for decades, and Obama and his party have accelerated the trend. Where is the...

Of all the malfeasant scandals the Clintons have committed, from lying under oath, to Whitewater to the Marc Rich pardon, little compares to the politically craven 1999 clemencies to 16 unrepentant terrorists of the Puerto Rican terrorist group FALN (Armed Forces for National Liberation). Fred DuVal was the co-chair of President Clinton’s White House Interagency Group of Puerto Rico, one of the groups that actively promoted clemency for terrorists. frauncestavernbombingFrom 1974 to 1983, the FALN waged a merciless, bloody war against the United States, attacking civilians mainly in Chicago and New York. On January 24, 1975, the FALN’s most deadly...

Remember how the National Republican Senatorial Committee wanted everyone to know just how terrible the Senate Conservatives Fund is? Remember how NRSC consultants took to op-ed pages, pushed reporters, and tweeted about the lavish and extravagant expenses of SCF? Remember how when a candidate got endorsed by SCF, everyone knew immediately NRSC would support the opposite candidate out of spite? (See e.g. Ben Sasse v. Shane Osborn) Remember how the NRSC, Chamber of Commerce, and other establishment groups poured tons of money into primaries to stop SCF gains and those of other outside groups? Well, NRSC spent so much money...

In his new guise as a political commentator for CNN, former White House Press Secretary Jay Carney dished out conventional wisdom on State of the Union Sunday morning, which in this case meant diagnosing the Democrats’ chances in the upcoming midterms as poor. “It’s not going to be a good year for Democrats by definition,” Carney said. “The sixth year is always particularly bad for a president’s party. You couple that with the fact so many seats are defended by Democrats in red states where Mitt Romney did very well against the president, double-digits in most cases, and there’s no...

We’ve seen three public polls of New Hampshire’s Senate race since July. WMUR put incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen up by 2; YouGov put her up by 6. And now: BREAKING: New CNN-ORC poll in #NHSen race. @SenScottBrown: 48%, @SenatorShaheen: 48%, +/- 3.5%. 5:38 AM - 15 Sep 2014 Think about it, New Hampshire. You have the power in your hands… to make a Princeton professor eat a bug:

It’s hard to miss the WadeMobile. It’s the Nascar vehicle of Delaware politics. Flamboyantly wrapped in neon red, stark white and sky blue with an outsize portrait of Kevin Wade emblazoned on the side, it has been prowling up and down the small state of Delaware ever since Wade, a Delaware businessman and politician, filed at the last minute for the slot as the Delaware GOP’s candidate for the US Senate. The car is an intriguing surprise to generally cool Delawareans, loudly blasting as it plays Wade speaking of his messages of common sense conservatism mixed with the classic country...

Scott Brown, the former senator from Massachusetts who moved to New Hampshire to run in a more friendly environment, appears to be in a dead heat with Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, a new poll shows. A CNN/ORC International poll out Monday finds Shaheen and Brown tied among likely voters, with both obtaining the support of 48% among 735 voters surveyed. A close race could mean bad news for Democrats, who are struggling to maintain control of the Senate. Keeping the seat in the Democratic column is crucial if the party want to maintain a slim majority in the Senate.

Sen. Mary Landrieu's best hope for re-election? Change the letter behind her name from a "D" to an "R," says a Louisiana newspaper. Landrieu is one of the senators in one of the tightest rates this year — and if she loses, her loss could potentially flip the Senate to Republican control. An article in the Baton Rouge Advocate says Landrieu essentially acts like a Republican anyway but that the party label is a scarlet letter. “She has a letter behind her name, D, and it’s toxic,” Joshua Stockley, a political science professor at the University of Louisiana at Monroe,...

Jeb Bush adviser and GOP hack Mike Murphy thinks it may be in Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's (D-NV) interest to throw the Senate to Republicans. In an appearance on Sunday's Meet The Press, the conservative-bashing consultant who has yet to win a presidential election and once referred to Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) as Reid's secret weapon, said if Republicans took back the Senate, it could turn into an "American idol of grievance." Todd snickered and egged Murphy on, showing nothing but contempt for conservatives. "Harry Reid may throw the Senate," Murphy said. "You can argue it's in his interest."...

As the 2014 midterm election campaign heats up, all indications are that Democrats are headed for a trouncing at the hands of Republicans. Most political prognosticators now give the GOP a better-than-even chance of picking up the six seats it needs to win control of the Senate, and the party is expected to expand its majority in the House. The Republican gains may not match those of the Tea Party wave of 2010 that cost Democrats the House and their filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, but it likely will be enough to make President Obama's final two years in office...

Democratic Senator Chris Coons looks comfortably on his way to reelection in Delaware. A new Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Delaware Voters finds Coons leading Republican challenger Kevin Wade by 15 points - 49% to 34%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while 12% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) (Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook. The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Delaware was conducted on September 10-12, 2014 by Rasmussen...