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Democrats now have a 51 percent chance of holding the Senate
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/09/16/democrats-now-have-a-51-percent-chance-of-holding-the-senate/ ^ | September 16,2014 | Chris Cizilla

Posted on 09/16/2014 3:41:55 PM PDT by Chgogal

Democrats are now (very slightly) favored to hold the Senate majority on Nov. 4, according to Election Lab, The Post's statistical model of the 2014 midterm elections.

Election Lab puts Democrats' chances of retaining their majority at 51 percent — a huge change from even a few months ago, when the model predicted that Republicans had a better than 80 percent chance of winning the six seats they need to take control. (Worth noting: When the model showed Republicans as overwhelming favorites, our model builders — led by George Washington University's John Sides — warned that the model could and would change as more actual polling — as opposed to historical projections — played a larger and larger role in the calculations. And, in Republicans' defense, no one I talked to ever thought they had an 80 percent chance of winning the majority.)

So, what exactly has changed to move the Election Lab projection? Three big things:

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: democrats; elections; senate; win
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The three things that changed: Colorado; Iowa; and Kansas.
1 posted on 09/16/2014 3:41:55 PM PDT by Chgogal
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To: Chgogal

I don’t believe this poll for a second.


2 posted on 09/16/2014 3:42:32 PM PDT by Puppage (You may disagree with what I have to say, but I shall defend to your death my right to say it)
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Comment #3 Removed by Moderator

To: Chgogal

And yet Massacheusets looks seriously competitive now.

Still however, it does look as if the pathetic GOPe, through their actions in Mississippi and elsewhere have pi%%ed off the base enough to repeat 2012.

Congrats Karl Rove! The perennial loser!


4 posted on 09/16/2014 3:43:48 PM PDT by Viennacon (ILLEGALS ARE VIRAL WEAPONS!!)
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To: Chgogal

Way to go GOPe! You know how to pick ‘em!


5 posted on 09/16/2014 3:43:55 PM PDT by Hostage (ARTICLE V)
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To: Chgogal

I believe it.

Anyone hear anything from the EXEMPT GOP?

Nope. The EXEMPT GOP is arming al Qaeda (”rebels”).

Nope. The EXEMPT GOP is supporting ObamaCARE/RomneyCARE.


6 posted on 09/16/2014 3:44:52 PM PDT by Diogenesis (The EXEMPT Congress is complicit in the absence of impeachment)
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To: Chgogal

this story is crap.

Obamacare’s employer mandate is coming soon


7 posted on 09/16/2014 3:45:42 PM PDT by RockyTx
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To: Chgogal

I’m not that excited about voting in November. I’m not that excited about the NFL football season either and for about the same reason.

Tired of the BS and nothing to hope/vote for.


8 posted on 09/16/2014 3:46:20 PM PDT by Tenacious 1 (Tagline deleted at the request of an offended FReeper.)
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To: Chgogal

Do what the Dems do,,use the info to raise more money for the Conservatives,,the SCF should do this. Instead of letting it get under our skins,,use it!


9 posted on 09/16/2014 3:47:07 PM PDT by austinaero
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To: Chgogal

They’re just trying to motive the VERY unmotivated far left to get out and vote.


10 posted on 09/16/2014 3:47:49 PM PDT by what's up
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To: Chgogal

GIGO


11 posted on 09/16/2014 3:49:03 PM PDT by piytar (So....you are saying that Hilllary (and Obama) do not know what the meaning of the word "IS" IS?)
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To: RockyTx

What are the Republicans going to do about ObamaCare if they get the Senate?

Nothing.


12 posted on 09/16/2014 3:50:05 PM PDT by dfwgator
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To: Chgogal

I dont buy this BS for a second, at least I hope its not true..but after watching this POS Obama win not once but twice, I guess anything is possible..Obama wants to bring out the freeloaders, the ones who sit on their asses waiting for their welfare and food stamp checks to arrive..those are the votes he is counting on to retain control of the Senate, that and of course the illegal aliens who have brought us disease and other vermin


13 posted on 09/16/2014 3:50:15 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: Chgogal

Only via voter fraud.


14 posted on 09/16/2014 3:50:20 PM PDT by Jane Long ("And when thou saidst, Seek ye my face; my heart said unto thee, Thy face, LORD, will I seek")
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To: Chgogal

I don’t know whether or not to raise the BS flag on this.

But I do know that the Republican Party is doing little more than sitting on their hands and watching the days tick by on the calendar. Their campaign slogan isn’t much more than “We need to win the Senate”, and the only time they appear energized about anything is when they attack a major flank of their base: the Tea Party.

It’s theirs to lose, and perhaps they want to.


15 posted on 09/16/2014 3:50:43 PM PDT by LostInBayport (When there are more people riding in the cart than there are pulling it, the cart stops moving...)
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To: Chgogal

Good news for democrats. They got it in the bag. Their voters can stay home. The union guys don’t have to make up trunkloads of “recently discovered ballots” of the votes of cartoon characters and dead house pets.

Don’t worry, dems. You got this.


16 posted on 09/16/2014 3:51:47 PM PDT by henkster (Do I really need a sarcasm tag?)
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To: LostInBayport

Republicans don’t want power, they want perks without the responsibility.


17 posted on 09/16/2014 3:52:40 PM PDT by dfwgator
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To: Chgogal

Did republicans under perform for senate seat in 2010? And again in 2012?


18 posted on 09/16/2014 3:52:41 PM PDT by Bulwinkle (Alec, a.k.a. Daffy Duck)
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To: Chgogal

Start of disinformation campaign!


19 posted on 09/16/2014 3:54:07 PM PDT by Empireoftheatom48 (God help the Republic but will he?)
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To: Viennacon

This is what happens when your only message is Democrats bad, Harry Reid evil.

The National GOP leadership has not offered Americans a message,
a plan, a vision, anything of what they would do if given power.
Democrats bad, Harry Reid evil is not enough.
Americans need reasons to vote for, not just against.


20 posted on 09/16/2014 3:55:03 PM PDT by tennmountainman (True conservatives don't like being rained on by their own party!)
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