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I have watched as the predictable polls have been produced showing Mitt Romney creeping back into the lead in Michigan by the exiguous margin of 1.6% according to the RealClear Politics Average. But is Willard Mitt Romney really ahead or not? No one knows for certain but I have done a little analysis of the polling during this primary season and have come away with several salient factoids. The first is that Romney nearly always overpolls. He was narrowly ahead in Iowa by 1.3% and he lost by .1%. His lead in New Hampshire was 20, while his margin of...

Friday was supposed to be the moment for Mitt Romney's triumphant return to his birthplace, when he would use the cavernous green of Ford Field to deliver a policy address that established him as the lone Republican capable of both fixing the economy and beating President Barack Obama. But the event served up fresh evidence for Romney critics who say he can't rise to the occasion and rally important elements of the GOP around his candidacy.

White House hopeful Mitt Romney styled himself as a Michigan-bred "car guy" whose wife drives "a couple of Cadillacs" as he tried to woo Motor City voters ahead of a key primary. Giving what was billed as a major economic policy speech days before state Republicans choose their presidential nominee, Romney presented a plan to lower taxes and cut spending -- and insisted that he was the only candidate capable of beating Democrat Barack Obama in the November 6 presidential election. But the speech may be remembered more for its setting and Romney's off-hand remarks rather than its substance. Before...

To understand Mitt Romney, you have to understand the most difficult passage of his political life: how he changed his position on abortion. Not the story he tells about it, but the real story. Romney began his political career as a pro-choicer. In the story he tells, he had an epiphany, a flash of insight, and committed himself thereafter to protecting life. But that isn’t what happened. The real story of Romney’s conversion—a series of tentative, equivocal, and confused shifts, accompanied by a constant rewriting of his past—paints a more accurate picture of who he is. Romney has complex views...

Forget Michigan. If Rick Santorum really wants to hand Mitt Romney his head he ought to challenge him in Massachusetts. It is here, not in Michigan, where Romney, governor for four years, made his political bones, first by running unsuccessfully against the late Sen. Ted Kennedy, and then defeating Democrat Shannon O'Brien for governor in 2002. It is also here where thousands of people -- to their total surprise -- woke up the other day to find that Romney ran the state as a "severely conservative" governor for four years. Who knew? That was before he declined to run for...

The Republican race for President in Arizona looks like a close one, with Mitt Romney leading Rick Santorum only 36-33. Newt Gingrich is third at 16% and Ron Paul fourth at 9%. Santorum is better liked by Arizona Republicans than Romney, but the gap isn't as wide as we're finding in a lot of other states. Santorum's at +34 (61/27), while Romney's at +24 (58/34). One thing to keep an eye on over the next week is whether Newt Gingrich can hold his support. 16% is pretty good for him compared to what we're finding other places right now, but...

Mitt Romney, during campaign stops in Michigan yesterday, embraced his Michigan roots for all they’re worth. As he watches his popularity plummet in the state in which he grew up, he seems to be grasping at anything to keep from sinking any further. Romney tried to hit all the right buttons in order to resonate with Michigan voters leading up to their February 28 primary, by making himself one of them again. “I was born and raised here. I love being in Michigan,” Mr. Romney said. ”Everything seems right here. You know, I come back to Michigan; the trees are...

(TheDailyCaller.com) Rick Santorum is smoking Mitt Romney in a Rasmussen poll of Ohio Republican voters released on Thursday. Santorum gets 42 percent in the swing state, a crucial one in the general election, while Romney sits 18 points behind at 24 percent. Newt Gingrich is in third at 13 percent and Ron Paul is at 10 percent.

As I’ve been noting here, one key metric to determine whether the prolonged GOP nomination process is damaging Mitt Romney’s general election prospects is his standing among independents, many of whom remain sour on Obama’s economic performance. Today’s new Pew poll offers another installment. The topline is striking enough — it finds that Rick Santorum is surging among Tea Partyers and conservatives, again suggesting that they just can’t come to terms with Romney as the nominee. But look, Romney is still likely to get the nomination, anyway. Which is why this slide among independents is also extremely noteworthy: A month...

Some Republicans expressed concern that Mitt Romney's campaign is stuck in neutral and limping, not lunging, toward the party's U.S. presidential nomination. Even before Rick Santorum's sweep of contests in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri Tuesday, the Romney campaign was getting warnings and advice from Republicans concerned about the former Massachusetts governor's performance on the stump, which hasn't improved since the state caucuses and primaries began early in January,

A new survey of Minnesota from Public Policy Polling (D) shows Newt Gingrich with a big lead in this state’s caucuses, which will be held on February 7. And what is more, A Gingrich win here could potentially embarrass Romney very much. The numbers: Gingrich 36%, Romney 18%, Santorum 17%, and Paul 13%. The survey of likely caucus-goers was conducted from January 21-22, and has a ±5.6% margin of error. Romney actually won the Minnesota caucuses in 2008, which were held on the February 5 Super Tuesday event of that year. In that cycle, Romney had emerged as the conservative...

Mitt Romney just can’t close the deal. Twelve days ago, Mitt was the toast of the GOP. This morning he’s just toast.Twelve days ago, he’d won a “historic” two in a row — Iowa and New Hampshire — and he had a double-digit lead in South Carolina.Now it turns out Mitt didn’t even win Iowa.Mitt had the governor of South Carolina with him, but Newt Gingrich had the two real power brokers — Juan Williams of Fox News and, more importantly, John King of CNN. Those were his foils in the two South Carolina debates.Two minutes into the two-hour Thursday...

John Roco argues that a pattern of increasing power enabling access to a female 'of more desire to him' has defined Newt Gingrich for the election, debates, presidential race of 2012, as well as leaving a wife when she was 'baggage' of being ill, and seemingly not to serve his purposes. John Roco also argues of Newt Gingrich's attack ability at debates, whether South Carolina, Florida or future, actually becomes an extreme deficit of one who would want to be leader of our nation, needing to 'contain' outbursts and expressions of ego empowerment. Admiral Patrick Walsh is mentioned as one...

Newt Gingrich, who had trailed Mitt Romney by a double-digit margin in South Carolina in several polls conducted just after the New Hampshire primary, may instead be headed to a big victory there, recent polling suggests. Mr. Gingrich leads Mr. Romney 38-30 in the FiveThirtyEight forecast of South Carolina, which has been updated with polling through Friday evening. (Newt 82% chance of winning, chart at source link) Much of the reason for the relatively clear lead for Mr. Gingrich is that he has very clear momentum in the race. In a survey conducted by Public Policy Polling, for instance, Mr....

The winner of the South Carolina primary has gone on to be the Republican presidential nominee for 30 straight years — and that could be bad news for Mitt Romney, who suddenly finds himself in a real battle with Newt Gingrich in Saturday's vote. Polls suggest support for the former House speaker has surged since his fiery performance in Thursday night's candidates' debate, giving him a slight lead over the former Massachusetts governor and a good chance of grabbing all 25 of the state’s delegates. The two other candidates — former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum and Texas congressman Ron Paul...

CLEMSON, S.C. — With polls opening in less than 24 hours for the important South Carolina presidential primary election, the final Palmetto Poll shows Newt Gingrich leading over Mitt Romney in a gritty battle fraught with personal attacks and breaking news about the candidates’ personal lives.That’s the finding of the third Clemson University 2012 Palmetto Poll, a sample of 429 South Carolina GOP voters who indicated they plan to vote Saturday. The telephone poll was initiated Jan. 13 and recalibrated Jan. 18-19 to measure changing dynamics. Twenty percent of the likely voters remain undecided.“We expect a reaction by the...

GILBERT, S.C. — Mitt Romney and a top surrogate called for Newt Gingrich, Romney's chief rival for the Republican presidential nomination, to release the House Ethics Committee report that led to a reprimand of Gingrich and a $300,000 fine. After Romney was pressed on his tax returns, Gov. Nikki Haley (R-S.C.) stepped in and interrupted Romney. "The people of South Carolina are not talking about tax returns. They're not. They're talking about jobs, spending and the economy," she said before taking a shot at Gingrich, who is neck and neck with Romney in recent polls of South Carolina. "In all...

VIDEO"Uploaded by americanbridge21st on Jan 9, 2012 Though Mitt Romney has spent 5 years of his run for President mired at 25%, there is one group that is signaling their singularsupport: the Washington Establishment. And Karl Rove, the king of conventional GOP wisdom is working double-time to make sure rank-and-file Republicans know it's time to fall in line. Through his constant television appearances and weekly op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, Rove has consistently favored Mitt Romney and done what he does best: work to tear down any credible rival to Romney."

... Mitt Romney set a new all-time record for the lowest winning share of the vote (for either party) in the Iowa caucuses - 25 percent [24.6%] - one point lower than Bob Dole's 26 percent level of support in 1996. That's well below the 31 percent tally that every previous Republican winner except for Dole had achieved... Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich both matched or surpassed the 13 percent level of support that John McCain on his way to winning the Republican nomination received in Iowa... Lastly, Romney failed to equal the 25.2 percent share of the vote that...

Mr. 25% has done it again. Willard Romney has a thing about the number 25. If there are six people in the Republican field his 25% puts him at or near the top. When the field thins out his 25% will have to be increased or he will end up the same way he did in 2008. Rick Santorum is a solid conservative who demonstrated that a candidate’s perceived conservatism will ultimately be the quality that propels one of the Republicans on the stage to the nomination. Whether Rick has the staying power to mount a protracted fight remains to...