Posted on 01/21/2012 4:23:48 AM PST by Jim Robinson
Newt Gingrich, who had trailed Mitt Romney by a double-digit margin in South Carolina in several polls conducted just after the New Hampshire primary, may instead be headed to a big victory there, recent polling suggests.
Mr. Gingrich leads Mr. Romney 38-30 in the FiveThirtyEight forecast of South Carolina, which has been updated with polling through Friday evening.
(Newt 82% chance of winning, chart at source link)
Much of the reason for the relatively clear lead for Mr. Gingrich is that he has very clear momentum in the race. In a survey conducted by Public Policy Polling, for instance, Mr. Gingrich led Mr. Romney by 4 percentage points in interviews conducted on Wednesday night, based on a detailed break-out of nightly results provided to FiveThirtyEight by Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling. But Mr. Gingrich’s lead expanded to 6 points in interviews conducted on Thursday. And Mr. Gingrich led by 14 points in about 700 interviews conducted on Friday night, which postdated the Thursday night debate in North Charleston, and the interview given to ABC News by one of Mr. Gingrich’s ex-wives.
In primaries, especially in the early-voting states, momentum is a strong predictor of the results, and it is usually correct to give considerable weight to the most recent data.
South Carolina has been surveyed by more than a dozen distinct polling firms over the past week, and the surveys are in agreement that Mr. Gingrich gained significant ground on Mr. Romney following the Monday night debate in Myrtle Beach. If Mr. Gingrich was also helped by the Thursday night debate, as the Public Policy Polling data suggests, his margin of victory in South Carolina could be impressive — perhaps reaching into the double-digits.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...
Polls are now open in South Carolina
Its gonna be a Newtiful day !!!
How difficult will Florida be if Newt wins SC?
Good chance?
:)
“Gingrich led by 14 points in about 700 interviews conducted on Friday night”
Wow, IF Newt wins SC by 14, he wins FL by 7, imho.
I think EVERY -except maybe one- SC winner (since they’ve gone first in the South) has won FL.
(AND of course, EVERY SC winner has been our nominee since that time.)
Go Newt!
Fact is...we are sick and tired of the liberal media nominating our candidates for us...Romney=Dukakis...I’m for Newt, warts and all.
See, this is the power of a Jim Thompson endorsement. ;’)
INTRADE.COM
Newt Gingrich to win the 2012 South Carolina PrimaryEvent: South Carolina Primary (Republican)
85.0%
chance
Mitt Romney to win the 2012 South Carolina PrimaryEvent: South Carolina Primary (Republican)
17.4%
chance
Rick Santorum to win the 2012 South Carolina PrimaryEvent: South Carolina Primary (Republican)
0.1%
chance
Ron Paul to win the 2012 South Carolina PrimaryEvent: South Carolina Primary (Republican)
0.1%
chance
Yeah, between the liberal MSM and the Republican Establishment shoving Romney, McCain, Dole, and Bush Sr down our thoats, this truly is a war.
One thing, I’ve noticed over the years is, except for Bush Jr, EVERY candidate I like, the Establishment hates and smears 24/7 with a passion.
I think that’s a good thing.
And it would be no small amount of joy to watch Newt verbally eviscerate Obama for the next 10 months.
The rats are sweating, he he he he he...........
Newt is going to be speaking in my hometown 9:00 AM Thursday. I have to admit I would be in line at 4:00 AM if it were Sarah Palin. I am considering going though because it does not happen everyday that you get to meet a future President.
God Speed South Carolina. The eyes of the republic are upon you...
There’s an ad running in SC, where Romney, in his own words, comes out for abortion and he attacks families. That ad is killing Romney in pro-family values SC.
I had Romney down for a third place finish, but Santorum isn’t doing as well as I expected. I expected him to finish #2. Oh, well.
I do think, though, that Newt will get 40% of the SC vote and easily win SC.
This really did happen...
A few minutes ago a about 7:45 a violent storm roared passed my house here in SE TN..
Extreme winds, lightning, thunder, very loud..
There are probably tornadoes not far away..
the first voters in SC must have answered that they voted for Newt when asked by the pollsters..
Willie Mitty is blowin mad ...
It was a freak storm..
its blown over for now
just a lot of thunder around the hills..
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