Free Republic

In the race for the Republican Party’s 2016 presidential nomination, there can be only one… establishment candidate. When the news broke late Thursday night that David Kochel, a once loyal Mitt Romney aide who managed the former Massachusetts governor’s Iowa campaigns in 2008 and 2012, had jumped ship and joined former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s camp, it went off like a bomb. The hire signaled to many that Romney’s campaign-in-waiting was floundering and that it was acceptable for donors and former staffers alike to abandon the 2012 Republican presidential nominee. What’s more, by hiring the architect of Romney’s virtual tie...

“Exposing the obvious using statistics” may be the new slogan over at fivethirtyeight.com.  Harry Enten has written two pieces based on his analysis of Republican presidential hopefuls name recognition vs their favorability.  His conclusion?  That Chris Christie and Sarah Palin likely have no chance at the nomination.  Duh.  But their data is much more interesting—and useful—than that. Based on polls taken at this point in the race in presidential elections since 1980, the Manhattan cheeze-wizzes have plotted the candidates name recognition on the X axis and their net favorability rating on the Y axis. The trend line is telling.  I have to quote Motor Trend to really...

(VIDEO-AT-LINK)Chris Cillizza, Editor of the Washington Post‘s The Fix praised Scott Walker, Carly Fiorina, and Ted Cruz’s speeches in Iowa, while saying that Chris Christie was only “so-so” on Monday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” on MSNBC....

Governor Christie moved one step closer to running for president Friday, launching a political action committee with his supporters. The new political action committee, Leadership Matters for America, will give Christie the ability to raise money and assemble a staff for a potential run for president. Christie’s establishment of the committee came just as he was flying to Iowa to woo conservative voters in the first-in-the-nation presidential caucus state. The Wall Street Journal first reported early this morning that Christie’s team filed paperwork to establish the committee with the Federal Election Commission on Friday. The documents have not yet been...

“The most important tax reform we can do is abolish the IRS,” Texas Sen. Ted Cruz told the fired-up audience. The firebrand senator compared the EPA to a locust and got a huge reaction when he demanded to “repeal every word of ObamaCare.” Sarah Palin, too, after telling reporters she’s thinking about a 2016 run, laced her speech with snappy one-liners as she lit into the current president. Of Obama, she said: “America, he’s just not that into you.” The 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee also knocked the idea of a Hillary Clinton run. “Hey Iowa, can anyone stop Hillary?...

Illegal immigration jumped to the front of Iowa conservatives' minds on Saturday when a group of protesters heckled two potential presidential candidates for disagreeing with President Barack Obama's recent moves on the subject. 'If you become president, will you deport our families?' the group of eight shouted over and over from the balcony, after former Texas Gov. Rick Perry spoke about how he had mobilized his state's National Guard troops to patrol America's southern border. (SNIP) Democratic National Committee chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz, a Florida congresswoman in a shrinking House minority, held a small event across the street from the...

There are enough potential candidates for president (on the GOP side at least) that you need an Excel spreadsheet just to keep them all straight. Instead of a complicated algorithm, I've boiled each candidate down to his/her most basic elements. At the end of the day, these are the things more likely to define a presidential wannabe. It's also important to distinguish between durable traits and those that are more ephemeral. For example, low name ID is something easily overcome. But, being on the "wrong side" of the base on key issues can be a campaign killer. This is by...

DES MOINES, Iowa - For months, the 2016 Republican presidential race has been dominated by the "invisible primary" scramble for the backing of the party's donor class. On Saturday, it goes grassroots. At least eight likely candidates will give their pitches to 1,500 conservative activists at the Iowa Freedom Summit in Des Moines, trying to seduce the people who pack a punch in the GOP caucuses, where the first votes of the party's nominating process are scheduled to be cast in a little over a year. "This is the kickoff to the caucus season," said Cody Hoefert, the Rock City...

This weekend’s Iowa Freedom Summit is the first multi-candidate event of the 2016 Iowa Caucus cycle. Several presidential hopefuls will take the stage during the daylong forum. Each is given 20 minutes to address the crowd. There is a lot at stake for those hoping to woo likely Iowa Caucusgoers. The candidates who receive the biggest boost on Saturday will likely be the ones who fire up the crowd of Iowa conservatives the most. A sold out crowd of 1,000 or so likely caucusgoers and 150 members of the media from all the country will attend the summit. This event...

In naming an emergency manager for Atlantic City on Thursday, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie left the door open for the seaside gambling resort to file for bankruptcy if it can’t get its finances under control. The Republican governor and likely presidential candidate appointed a corporate turnaround specialist as the city’s emergency manager, and tabbed the man who led Detroit through its municipal bankruptcy as his assistant. Corporate finance consultant Kevin Lavin will have broad powers over Atlantic City’s finances and operations. Kevyn Orr, who helped lead Detroit through a financial crisis, will serve as special counsel to Lavin. Christie...

Jim VandeHei sees dead people. On today's Morning Joe, the Politico honcho agreed with Joe Scarborough's suggestion that Chris Christie is like Bruce Willis in The Sixth Sense: [politically] dead but doesn't know it. Ironically, Scarborough distanced himself from his own suggestion, twice saying that he didn't believe it. But when he asked his guest if the characterization was fair, Vandehei replied "I think it is. At best he's a live man stumbling." View the video here.

Much of the 2016 political oxygen on the Republican side of the aisle has been sucked up by establishment-leaning figures so far -- Jeb Bush forming his exploratory committee, Mitt Romney heavily weighing launching version 3.0, Chris Christie making telltale moves, etc. On the more conservative end of the spectrum, we have Bobby Jindal almost assuredly running (do read his hard-hitting speech on radical Islamism delivered in London yesterday), Scott Walker staffing up and sounding like a presidential candidate, and Marco Rubio reportedly inching closer to taking the plunge. And then there's Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, Carly Fiorina, Ben Carson,...

South Carolina has been where underdog Republican presidential candidacies die and front-runners begin to look toward November. The only asterisk to its 32-year streak of picking the eventual GOP nominee came in the whack-a-mole 2012 contest that placed former House Speaker Newt Gingrich over eventual nominee Mitt Romney. “Romney never closed the deal with the voters,” said legendary South Carolina Republican strategist Chip Felkel about Romney's inability to win the first-in-the-South primary. “Voters cast with their hearts, not their heads, in that cycle.” Everyone understandably focuses on who is coming and going in Iowa, the first contest of 2016's presidential...

If you're not familiar with the following website, you need to. These guys have systematically all of the data concerning the delegates and nomination process for the parties and how delegates are selected, what counts, and what doesn't count. I've reviewed the list and am currently working on an IA projection map of the caucus and potential vote but waiting until the straw poll when I can start filling in candidates. Yet, when I review the total states, I find it difficult to see how the Establishment loses if they are unopposed by other Establishment candidates. Red States for the...

SAN DIEGO — Mitt Romney's unexpected step into the 2016 presidential contest is drawing enthusiasm from the GOP's most passionate conservatives. But not because they want him to win. For the first time in recent memory, prominent conservatives see a Republican presidential field that could have as much competition among the party's establishment-minded prospects — like Romney — as its fiery conservatives....

On second-and-2 on the Green Bay Packers' opening drive on Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys, quarterback Aaron Rodgers called out an audible that — best guess — had a funny little double meaning. "New York Bozo! New York Bozo!" Rodgers shouted as he scanned over the defense. Hmm, let's see ... who is the most talked-about guest of a certain Cowboys owner? Yes, we imagine this was the Packers' response to New Jersey governor Chris Christie and his infamous red sweater being pals with Jerry Jones and a guest at the divisional playoff game at Lambeau Field, as well as...

If two out of three adults are considered to be overweight in America, it is no surprise that losing weight tops New Year’s resolutions every year. Regardless of age, race, or gender, the battle of the bulge unites many of us. Heck, I even hired a personal trainer since I can’t get it together on my own. And while most of us will abandon our nutrition and exercise routines before January is over, there is a man whose dedication to health in 2015 could make all the difference in the 2016 elections. His name is Chris Christie, governor of New...

For the most part, the gay marriage debate now falls along partisan lines: Democrats support it, But within the crowded field of likely 2016 presidential contenders, there’s a lot of room for nuance. The would-be candidates have made much different arguments and have varying records on the issue. Meantime, the issue continues to change. On Jan. 6, Florida became the second-largest state to recognize gay marriage, bringing the total to 36. And on Friday, the Supreme Court will meet privately to decide whether to consider cases that could lead to a more definitive ruling in favor of same-sex marriage. Here’s...

The primary field on the right is developing in a way that favors candidates closer to the center.Conservatives have many reasons to be pleased about their position within the GOP, even after a quixotic challenge to Speaker John Boehner from the far right failed this week. On almost all issues, the current in the party now flows powerfully toward them. Every newly elected Republican senator ran on a deeply conservative platform. But conservatives also have reason to worry about how the 2016 Republican presidential race is coalescing. The field on the right is developing in a way that could advantage...

RandPAC is trolling other potential GOP contenders early and often with the help of Google ads—and Chris Christie and Rick Perry just might be next. When former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush announced in mid-December that he would “actively explore” running for the Republican presidential nomination, curious parties took to Google to learn more about him. While they were there, many of them were greeted by another politician’s name at the bottom of the page—one they hadn’t searched for. “Join a movement working to shrink government. Not grow it,” read one of the ads, placed by RandPAC, the political action committee...