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Cahaly has just released his first poll of the 2020 cycle, a survey of likely voters in Michigan showing Trump trailing Joe Biden by a single point, 46%-45%. Cahaly’s survey, using the same methodology he employed four years ago but with an enhanced system for targeting likely voters, shows the race in Michigan as extremely competitive. The pollster also continues to see signs of “shy” or “reluctant” Trump voters in the electorate. Known as “social desirability bias,” it refers to the effect of respondents not telling the truth about whom they will vote for because they think their choice will...

As of May 5, the U.S. is at 95 % of Expected Deaths including deaths from COVID-19. COVID-19 Deaths 39,910 Deaths from All Causes 751,953 % of Expected Deaths 95 Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019.

President Trump leads top 2020 Democratic White House hopefuls in theoretical match-ups in Wisconsin, a poll released Wednesday found. Former Vice President Joe Biden, Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg all trail Trump in Wisconsin, according to the new Marquette Law School poll. Last month, all of these candidates except Buttigieg beat Trump. Trump topped Biden, 47 percent to 44 percent, in the new poll. Trump also holds a 3-point edge over Sanders in Wisconsin, 48 percent to 45 percent. Trump's lead is wider against Warren, at 48 percent to 43...

Hope this isn't a mistake. The link is on their website "elections-2016"

Obama won Pinellas Co. by 25K votes in 2012. http://www.votepinellas.com/Election-Results/2016-Election-Results/Unofficial-Voter-Turnout-2016-General-Election

FL D/R voter diffs (incl EV) 2012/2016@1p Duvall +22K D/+2K R Hillsb +63K D/+25K D +62K gain https://twitter.com/FL_for_Trump/status/796059441401577472

RCP now has Trump leading FL and at 266 electoral votes with no tossups. Only trailing NH by 0.6 but that includes the phone WMUR poll with Clinton +11. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

Trump within 2 in NM. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Zia_Poll_NM_November.pdf

Latest Emerson State Polls. Trump up 7 in OH and 6 in MO. Within 1 in NV and NH. Heavily Dem samples. http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_4c95f9bb0b874960a67b0cb7c019efd8.pdf

RCP poll averages now show Trump leading in NH.

Trump now within 1 % of Clinton in RCP polling average for NH. Also within 1% for ME CD2. If Trump wins these plus the states he is currently leading in, he is at 270.

According to RCP poll averages, Trump trails Clinton by only 0.7% in ME CD2 (1 EV), by only 2.4% in CO (9 EVs), NH (4 EVs) and VA (13 EVs) by 4.7%.

Pres. Barack Obama doesn’t talk about “government spending,” he talks about “investing in America,” which sounds more thrilling but amounts to the same thing. And the man who fancies himself our national investment guru will no doubt take tonight’s State of the Union address to pitch us a bunch of new exciting financial opportunities, like some ephebic stockbroker just out of training. If we must endure the rhetoric of investment, it is fair to ask: How is Obama’s portfolio doing? Compared to its slick prospectus, the Obama Fund is a dog, and its metrics — unemployment and growth — are...

So it was it not surprising to see Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA), who is up for reelection in 2012, trying to acclimate himself to the new political reality. In an interview with RealClearPolitics, Webb recalled a conversation with the president about the health care bill. "I told him this was going to be a disaster," the senator is quoted as saying. "The president believed it was all going to work out." Whatever Webb said behind closed doors, his Senate votes are a matter of public record. He was repeatedly an "aye" in favor of advancing what he later called "a...