Posted on 06/23/2020 7:26:22 AM PDT by wise_caucasian
Cahaly has just released his first poll of the 2020 cycle, a survey of likely voters in Michigan showing Trump trailing Joe Biden by a single point, 46%-45%.
Cahaly’s survey, using the same methodology he employed four years ago but with an enhanced system for targeting likely voters, shows the race in Michigan as extremely competitive. The pollster also continues to see signs of “shy” or “reluctant” Trump voters in the electorate. Known as “social desirability bias,” it refers to the effect of respondents not telling the truth about whom they will vote for because they think their choice will be viewed unfavorably by others, including those conducting the survey. In a phone interview today, Cahaly said the social desirability bias he is seeing is “worse than it was four years ago.”
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Or, that it goes on your permanent marketing record.
I just hope Trump wins in a landslide and we all say, yea, I could have seen that coming but am a bit surprised after the 24/7 attacks by the media even had me wondering if the world could be this crazy.
The democrats are the terrorist party.
When Obamacare was passed, my wife and her friend at work both were diagnosed with breast cancer. They both changed their registrations to Independent. People aren’t stupid and it’s obvious what the democrats will do to you.
Ever hear a Democrat complain about a conservative being fired? Hell they openly damaged businesses like Walmart and Chick-fil-A.
So if this is accurate, then President Trump leads Biden by 10 - 15%. 8>)
The senate candidate-the black fella-we really need. Has he a chance?
That close eh? Well, I guess the people must be pissed about all that returned manufacturing
John James.
I lie to pollsters every chance I get.
That was before four years of Trump; just wait until this year.
I am betting that number is even HIGHER than in 2016.
This is apples and oranges.
The 2016 poll was taken November 6, two days before the actual election.
THIS current poll is June 2020, almost 6 months before the election.
What did Trafalgar poll in June of 2016?
They had Hillary up by 8!!!
I have no clue how his campaign is going. Being from Louisiana I don't pay much attention to what is going on in Michigan. Just not enough time. 8>)
This all before we have a Debate. There is always a great quote “There you go again” or event like No New Taxes, or Willie Horton Ad, Dukakis riding in a Tank that sways these races. Handicapping this race now is waste of time.
I sincerely hope that his ads feature images of the firebombing of police cars and the defacing/destruction of statues...particularly in the states that he flipped in '16.And I hope that the recent comment made by the bull dyke,Rat Party Attorney General of Massachusetts (Maura Healy) is also featured in his ads.That comment,of course was, "yes,America is on fire but that's how forests grow".
Yep, I am certain Biden will commit an unforced error.
And the fact that they are owned by Republicans, places Nate Silver and RCP dismiss their polling as being outliers. I see another repeat of 2020 polling mishaps by liberal push poll orgs.
Four years ago you would be shouted at, have your car keyed, and maybe threatened. It IS worse than it was 4 years ago. Now they try to cancel you, threaten outright violence, and have calls for you to lose your job.
Real Clear Politics’ claim to fame is ...
an average of OLD polls. Meaningless website.
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