Free Republic

“Trump got over 80% of the vote. A new record for a primary in that state. Spin that anyway you want, but it is a major win for Trump”.
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PA was always going to be a nail biter. Trump could eke out a win by skillfully playing up the fracking / energy issue and possibly overcoming the massive fraud machine in Philly. That being said, Georgia is more troubling.

Georgia is a crucial must-win swing state in 2024, and 15.5% of Georgia Republican voters did not vote for Trump in the GOP primary, even though every other GOP candidate had dropped out of the race. He should have carried 98% of the vote.

I’m no fan of Nikki Haley, but her point was valid when she said Trump now needs to earn the votes of those GOP primary voters who have not supported him to date. I’m not sure he can do that in Georgia.

Brian Kemp won a tough gubernatorial race in 2022 going away. It would be ideal for Trump to ally himself with Kemp’s machine in Georgia, but instead he attempted to take Kemp out in the 2022 primary by running Perdue against him.

Trump has his MAGA base in Georgia, but there are also a significant number of Republicans and Independents who have no use for him. It remains to be seen if those voters can stomach voting for the corrupt and feeble Biden in November. If Trump were wise, he would act now to make peace with Kemp.

Agreed. Gaetz is in a safe GOP district (FL panhandle). His replacement would be a conservative Republican. It seems obvious he ousted McCarthy because McCarthy wouldn’t run interference for him with the Ethics Committee. For all the Gaetz fan club members here, just remember when the time came to pick a candidate in the 2016 nominating contest , Gaetz got behind that arch conservative - Jeb Bush!

“Gaetz is correct. We’ve always known there were traitors in the ranks”.
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In 2015, when the time came to select a GOP candidate to be nominated to run against Hillary, Gaetz got on board with that arch conservative - Jeb Bush. Gaetz remains in trouble with the Ethics commitee. McCarthy refused to run interference for him so he took him out.

I would have loved to hear about Jolene making a play for Loretta’s man. Wouldn’t have gone well for Jolene.

Biden shouldn’t be worried about Mike Johnson. MJT is working hard to dump him now.

“Have you ever heard Trump tell the story about the old woman and the snake?...”
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I guess I never heard the story. Have you heard the story about the GOP presidential nominee losing Georgia for the first time since 1992?

Despite the findings of this survey, Ohio has turned red enough in recent years that I doubt Biden will expend resources to seriously contest the race there. That was evident in 2022 when J.D. Vance dispatched Tim Ryan handily. Republicans should be able to flip the Senate seat in 2024 and rid the Senate of the despicable Sherrod Brown.

This being said, the results last week in Georgia are troubling. Georgia is a crucial swing state in 2024, and 15.5% of Georgia Republican voters did not vote for Trump in the GOP primary, even though every other GOP candidate had dropped out of the race. He should have carried 98% of the vote.

I’m no fan of Nikki Haley, but her point was valid when she said Trump now needs to earn the votes of those GOP primary voters who have not supported him to date. I’m not sure he can do that in Georgia. Brian Kemp won a tough gubernatorial race in 2022 going away. It would be ideal for Trump to ally himself with Kemp’s machine in Georgia, but instead he attempted to take Kemp out in the 2022 primary by running Perdue against him.

Trump has his MAGA base in Georgia, but there are also a significant number of Republicans and Independents who have no use for him. It remains to be seen if those voters can stomach voting for the corrupt and feeble Biden in November. If Trump were wise, he would act now to make peace with Kemp.

“GA Trump 84.5%, NimRATa 13.2%”
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While Washington State is a lost cause in the General Election, the results in Georgia are troubling. Georgia is a crucial swing state in 2024, and 15.5% of Georgia Republican voters did not vote for Trump in the GOP primary, even though every other GOP candidate had dropped out of the race. He should have carried 98% of the vote.

I’m no fan of Nikki Haley, but her point was valid when she said Trump now needs to earn the votes of those GOP primary voters who have not supported him to date. I’m not sure he can do that in Georgia. Brian Kemp won a tough gubernatorial race in 2022 going away. It would be ideal for Trump to ally himself with Kemp’s machine in Georgia, but instead he attempted to take Kemp out in the 2022 primary by running Perdue against him.

Trump has his MAGA base in Georgia, but there is also a significant number of Republicans and Independents who have no use for him. It remains to be seen if those voters can stomach voting for the corrupt and feeble Biden in November. If Trump were wise, he would act now to make peace with Kemp.

“If that’s true, it’s only because the press has not seen the need to try destroy him yet”.
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It was not necessary for the press to destroy DeSantis. Donald Trump did that job, by unleashing $25M in despicable attack ads, that started airing shortly after DeSantis’ historic re-election in Nov. 2022. Ironically, Trump’s attack ads were from the left! (”DeSantis will destroy Social Security, etc.”)

“Boy, Haley is fighting for her new job on MSNBC, eh!”
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I am no fan of Nikki Haley. Were she to be elected, she would be, at best, a mixed bag in the vein of George W. Bush. That being said, she should be taken seriously when she asserts that Donald Trump cannot win a General Election. It would be more accurate to say Trump will have a difficult time winning the 2024 General Election. It remains possible for him to eke out a win, but only if the stars align exactly right. He caught lightning in a bottle in his 2016 victory, primarily because he was running against the universally despicable Hillary Clinton and the Democrats were caught flat footed by taking the rust belt states for granted. Democrats are determined not to let that happen again in 2024.

With the corrupt and feeble Biden’s approval rating in the tank, Democrat strategists have known for some time that their only hope for prevailing in 2024 is to be matched against the one GOP candidate whose approval rating is similarly in the tank – Trump! To be matched against any of the GOP rising stars (DeSantis, Kim Reynolds, Youngkin, Tim Scott, etc.) would spell disaster for Biden and they would have quickly replaced him with Newsom.

In order to ensure Trump would get the GOP nomination, Democrats unleashed the flurry of scurrilous legal proceedings against Trump, knowing that Trump loyalists would instinctively come to his defense via the GOP nominating process. That strategy has worked like a charm, as numerous quality GOP candidates were bullied and insulted out of the race by the petty, childish and vindictive Trump. A true statesman would have stepped aside and let a newer generation of GOP leaders emerge, but the 77 year old Trump’s narcissism would not allow for that. His vindication is all that matters to him, and his loyalists have remained firmly in his camp in sufficient numbers to ensure he is the nominee.

Now that the GOP nomination is in his grasp, where does that leave things? Trump likes to say “I’m leading Biden by a lot!” That is true – In West Virginia, Alabama and Wyoming! That is not true in the states that will determine the outcome of the 2024 election. Here are Trump’s poll numbers in six key swing states (RCP averages):

Georgia – 48.5
Wisconsin – 46.4
Arizona – 47.5
Nevada – 48.7
Michigan – 46.2
Pennsylvania – 44.2

In 2020, Trump carried 46.8% of the vote. As seen in these poll numbers he remains stuck at that level in the swing states with little prospect of increasing that number. He is universally known, and no one is changing their mind about him. If the electorate was comprised exclusively of patriotic, rural white males, Trump would have a historic landslide in 2024, winning 98% of the vote. Unfortunately the electorate is far more diverse.

As Trump’s loyal base celebrates his “victories” in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Michigan what do those results really reveal? I submit the following:

As a de facto incumbent, Trump should have been able to vanquish his GOP opponents decisively (80 – 90%), especially after spending tens of millions of dollars in negative attack ads throughout 2023. Instead, between 30 and 50% of GOP voters said they wanted someone other than Trump to be the nominee. This is more than a little alarming.

Winning a general election will require putting together a broad and diverse coalition. Trump’s MAGA loyalists are certainly a part of that coalition, but by themselves are not enough to put him over the top, especially with the Democrat fraud machines in Philly, Detroit, Fulton County, Maricopa County, etc. The blueprint for building such a coalition was demonstrated by Glenn Youngkin in 2021 and Ron DeSantis and Kim Reynolds in 2022, where tremendous victories were achieved in heretofore swing states.

Rather than taking steps to build a winning coalition, Trump is recklessly driving voters away that he would desperately need in November. Building a winning coalition is about addition, not subtraction. Trump doesn’t seem to see that. He gets his thrill from watching his followers at MAGA rallies fawn over his every utterance.

I wonder how many suburban women voters appreciate him calling Nikki Haley “bird brain” or mocking her husband’s overseas deployment. I wonder how many Arizona GOP voters appreciated hearing him denigrate McCain’s military service? I wonder how many Italian Americans were fond of him mocking Ron DeSantis’ name all those months? (DeSantis has been a tremendous governor for Florida, and the best FR members can do is call him “meatball”.) If Trump had not entered the race, DeSantis would be leading Biden 58 – 42 at this point.

Does Trump still have a chance? Yes, if he can avoid a conviction in Bragg’s kangaroo court. He needs to go after Biden relentlessly, but also show some conciliation to other parts of the GOP coalition. That would start by selecting a running mate such as Glenn Youngkin.

Perhaps the best hope is that Biden’s supporters are so despondent they will stay home in large numbers, but that remains a huge unknown. Based on his track record I am not optimistic that Trump can show the self discipline to attract a sufficient number of undecided voters to pull this off. I hope I’m wrong.

“We obviously need Nikki Haley! /s”
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I am no fan of Nikki Haley. Were she to be elected, she would be, at best, a mixed bag in the vein of George W. Bush. That being said, she should be taken seriously when she asserts that Donald Trump cannot win a General Election. It would be more accurate to say Trump will have a difficult time winning the 2024 General Election.

It remains possible for him to eke out a win, but only if the stars align exactly right. He caught lightning in a bottle in his 2016 victory, primarily because he was running against the universally despicable Hillary Clinton and the Democrats were caught flat footed by taking the rust belt states for granted. Democrats are determined not to let that happen again in 2024.

With the corrupt and feeble Biden’s approval rating in the tank, Democrat strategists have known for some time that their only hope for prevailing in 2024 is to be matched against the one GOP candidate whose approval rating is similarly in the tank – Trump! To be matched against any of the GOP rising stars (DeSantis, Kim Reynolds, Youngkin, Tim Scott, etc.) would spell disaster for Biden and they would have quickly replaced him with Newsom.

In order to ensure Trump would get the GOP nomination, Democrats unleashed the flurry of scurrilous legal proceedings against Trump, knowing that Trump loyalists would instinctively come to his defense via the GOP nominating process. That strategy has worked like a charm, as numerous quality GOP candidates were bullied and insulted out of the race by the petty, childish and vindictive Trump. A true statesman would have stepped aside and let a newer generation of GOP leaders emerge, but the 77 year old Trump’s narcissism would not allow for that. His vindication is all that matters to him, and his loyalists have remained firmly in his camp in sufficient numbers to ensure he is the nominee.

Now that the GOP nomination is in his grasp, where does that leave things? Trump likes to say “I’m leading Biden by a lot!” That is true – In West Virginia, Alabama and Wyoming! That is not true in the states that will determine the outcome of the 2024 election. Here are Trump’s poll numbers in six key swing states (RCP averages):

Georgia – 48.5
Wisconsin – 46.4
Arizona – 47.5
Nevada – 48.7
Michigan – 46.2
Pennsylvania – 44.2

In 2020, Trump carried 46.8% of the vote. As seen in these poll numbers he remains stuck at that level in the swing states with little prospect of increasing that number. He is universally known, and no one is changing their mind about him. If the electorate was comprised exclusively of patriotic, rural white males, Trump would have a historic landslide in 2024, winning 98% of the vote. Unfortunately the electorate is far more diverse.

As Trump’s loyal base celebrates his “victories” in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Michigan what do those results really reveal? I submit the following:

As a de facto incumbent, Trump should have been able to vanquish his GOP opponents decisively (80 – 90%), especially after spending tens of millions of dollars in negative attack ads throughout 2023. Instead, between 30 and 50% of GOP voters said they wanted someone other than Trump to be the nominee. This is more than a little alarming.

Winning a general election will require putting together a broad and diverse coalition. Trump’s MAGA loyalists are certainly a part of that coalition, but by themselves are not enough to put him over the top, especially with the Democrat fraud machines in Philly, Detroit, Fulton County, Maricopa County, etc. The blueprint for building such a coalition was demonstrated by Glenn Youngkin in 2021 and Ron DeSantis and Kim Reynolds in 2022, where tremendous victories were achieved in heretofore swing states.

Rather than taking steps to build a winning coalition, Trump is recklessly driving voters away that he would desperately need in November. Building a winning coalition is about addition, not subtraction. Trump doesn’t seem to see that. He gets his thrill from watching his followers at MAGA rallies fawn over his every utterance.

I wonder how many suburban women voters appreciate him calling Nikki Haley “bird brain” or mocking her husband’s overseas deployment. I wonder how many Arizona GOP voters appreciated hearing him denigrate McCain’s military service? I wonder how many Italian Americans were fond of him mocking Ron DeSantis’ name all those months? (DeSantis has been a tremendous governor for Florida, and the best FR members can do is call him “meatball”.) If Trump had not entered the race, DeSantis would be leading Biden 58 – 42 at this point.

Does Trump still have a chance? Yes, if he can avoid a conviction in Bragg’s kangaroo court. He needs to go after Biden relentlessly, but also show some conciliation to other parts of the GOP coalition. That would start by selecting a running mate such as Glenn Youngkin.

Perhaps the best hope is that Biden’s supporters are so despondent they will stay home in large numbers, but that remains a huge unknown. Based on his track record I am not optimistic that Trump can show the self discipline to attract a sufficient number of undecided voters to pull this off. I hope I’m wrong.

“THERE IS REASON to be confident; BUT ... don’t be complacent”!
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I’m more skeptical than you. Here we have another swing state where Trump is stuck in the mid-40s. In 2020, Trump carried 46.8% of the popular vote nationwide. Recent General Election polling shows him frozen at that level. Any other of the viable GOP candidates would have been leading 55 - 42 at this point.

I cringe when I hear Trump say he’s way ahead of Biden in the polls. That may be true in Alabama or Wyoming. But what about the states that will actually decide the election? (PA,MI,WI,GA,AZ,NV and maybe a couple of others). Trump is universally known, and no one is changing their mind about him.

The only hope of defeating the corrupt and feeble Biden is to have 40,000 - 50,000 undecided voters in the swing sates conclude that Trump is slightly more acceptable than Biden. (Fear of a Kamala Harris presidency may be helpful as well).

“I still don’t understand how Biden’s numbers are so high - he should be in Carter territory...”
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Excellent observation. Any viable GOP nominee should be leading the polls 58 -42 at this point. Every time I hear Trump saying he is way ahead of Biden, I cringe. Trump hit his high water mark in the 2020 election when he carried 46.8% of the vote. Today, he is stuck in the mid 40s with zero prospect of increasing that number. He is a known quantity. The voters know him well, and no one is changing their mind about him.

Biden and his team know that Trump is the only GOP candidate they could possibly defeat in 2024. Manufacturing all the bogus legal proceedings against Trump was for the sole purpose of ensuring Trump’s base was stirred up enough to ensure he got the GOP nomination. That has worked like a charm for the Dems.

The larger question – Can Trump actually expand his appeal to other segments of the electorate that would be necessary to pull off a General Election victory? He remains in the process of insulting and bullying his way to the GOP nomination, along the way permanently alienating a huge swath of Republican and Independent voters who would be essential to building a winning coalition.

I am no supporter of Nikki Haley, but I also know Trump will need her voters. Rather than showing some conciliation and respect, he continues with his childish ways (referring to her as “bird brain”, for example), along with dissing her husband’s overseas deployment. This gets his base charged up, all the while driving away moderates and independents he would need in November. I wonder what Italian Americans think about all the months he made light of Ron DeSantis’ name? Trump doesn’t seem to care – this is all about Trump and getting his vindication. It is no surprise that he remains stuck in the mid-40s when matched against Biden.

This race will be determined by 40,000 - 50,000 independent voters in a handful of swing states. Black voters will remain firmly entrenched on Biden’s plantation. Independents will choose who is the least detestable of the two. It remains possible that the corrupt and feeble Biden could squeak out a win, only to turn the keys over to Kamala Harris shortly thereafter. Scary prospect.

At this point, the best step he could take to begin expanding his base would be to select someone like Glenn Youngkin as a running mate.

I understand, I am about to receive incoming missiles from FR members, but I encourage everyone to contest my logic in a thoughtful manner rather than just hurl childish insults.

“They will have to go for discharge petition”
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If the Democrats are successful in getting a discharge petition (by colluding with a handful of GOP wimps), the next action will be Gaetz calling for the ouster of Mike Johnson as speaker.

Trump has lost three straight elections. It would be nice if he could conduct himself in a way to prevent four in a row.

“Nikki has no chance of beating Trump off on his way to the nomination”.
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Agreed she has no chance to win the GOP nomination. That being said, there is another problem looming. Trump will eventually need the votes of Haley type supporters (moderate, suburban GOP women), along with many independents.

By denigrating her so ruthlessly (calling her “bird brain”, dissing her husband’s active military deployment), he has greatly alienated a significant part of the electorate he will sorely need in November.

I am aware that Trump’s core followers fawn at his every utterance, but these stupid unforced errors can come back to bite him, especially if he persists in this behavior. His better approach would be to simply and graciously ignore her.

“I understand why Freepers would be delighted to see some RINOs move on. But why do I have this feeling that trying to save these open GOP House seats may not be an easy task”?

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While it is true that most of Washington state has gone the way of California, her district is on the eastern side of the state (far from Seattle) and has been safe Republican territory for decades. Some may recall that former Speaker of the House Tom Foley (a Democrat) was ousted from his seat by a Republican in this district many years ago.

“None of these factors are capable of improving”.

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Ironically, you are most likely correct. In the 2020 election, Trump received 46.8% of the popular vote, which is precisely what the current NBC poll shows. Trump is universally known, and no one is changing their mind about him. In the summer of 2023, an AP/IPSOS poll revealed that 53% of the electorate would never vote for Trump under any circumstances (also supported by the current NBC poll).

With the feeble and corrupt Biden tanking in job approval numbers, any formidable GOP nominee should be currently polling at 55% or higher (similar to Reagan over Carter in 1980).

Where does that leave things? Biden’s team is wholly invested in ramping up turnout among minority voters in certain swing states (MI, WI, PA, NV, GA and AZ). That’s where the election will be won or lost. Trump could possibly squeak out a win if enough uncommitted / independent voters in those states find him slightly less detestable than Biden. That’s his only path to victory. Calling Nikki Haley “bird brain” is certainly not endearing himself to moderate, suburban female voters at this point..

Despite his feeble demeanor, it’s no surprise he is in Detroit. He won’t do a lot of traveling during the actual campaign, but when he does, expect him to camp out in Philly, Detroit, Wisconsin, Clark County, NV., Maricopa County and Fulton County. He may be weak and corrupt, but he knows where his political survival rests - in the urban areas of the swing states.

I would welcome a Trump victory. Trump’s army is fiercely devoted to him, and this is admirable. The problem is his army alone is insufficient to win a General Election. Last summer, a very credible AP/IPSOS poll revealed that 53% of the electorate would not vote for Trump under any circumstances. This matches precisely his General Election result for 2020.

If his campaign approach remains on course, his only hope is that the electorate in a few swing states finds Biden even more repugnant than Trump.