Even a 4% can be considered decisive given the makeup of demographics of a state. I have not had a chance to fully analyze VA because they report at all the independent city & county levels, but in regards to OH and especially IA, the slight balance is shifting where those states are running fewer and fewer conservative voters.
But as already pointed out, this is an off-election. And the most significant thing is that Obama is NOT on the ballot. Cuccinelli will win Loudon and Prince William going away, and will garner at least 45% in Fairfax which will be more than enough to win the Gov race.
In fact here is the map from the 2009 Election, just 1 year after Obama’s big win. His voters don’t seem to come out for the Dem party candidates, as the GOP swept every office in 2009. Will McCauliffe and the Dem slate have an easier go of getting votes than Deeds due to the demographic shift? Unlikely. Maybe he wins Fairfax County, but Loudon & PW will be more than enough to claim the election.
If this Jackson guy is the real deal, then votes will win the Election, not money. The AG seems to be very favorable with the TP, and any attempt to vote FOR people/candidates should be all the motivation conservatives need to come out to the polls.
As for 2016, different ball game, but in 2013, the GOP should dominate VA just like they did in 2009.