Free Republic

Even a 4% can be considered decisive given the makeup of demographics of a state. I have not had a chance to fully analyze VA because they report at all the independent city & county levels, but in regards to OH and especially IA, the slight balance is shifting where those states are running fewer and fewer conservative voters.

But as already pointed out, this is an off-election. And the most significant thing is that Obama is NOT on the ballot. Cuccinelli will win Loudon and Prince William going away, and will garner at least 45% in Fairfax which will be more than enough to win the Gov race.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/metro/elections/2009/governor-map.html

In fact here is the map from the 2009 Election, just 1 year after Obama’s big win. His voters don’t seem to come out for the Dem party candidates, as the GOP swept every office in 2009. Will McCauliffe and the Dem slate have an easier go of getting votes than Deeds due to the demographic shift? Unlikely. Maybe he wins Fairfax County, but Loudon & PW will be more than enough to claim the election.

If this Jackson guy is the real deal, then votes will win the Election, not money. The AG seems to be very favorable with the TP, and any attempt to vote FOR people/candidates should be all the motivation conservatives need to come out to the polls.

As for 2016, different ball game, but in 2013, the GOP should dominate VA just like they did in 2009.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ak29h7eIOT3AdEdBNjNuN2ZyQTBLVENySUhSc1NOTUE&usp=sharing

The first tab, you can scroll across to the last two columns that say 2012 Predicted and 2012 Actual. You can view how Romney/Obama fared in the model and how the county results this time compare to previous results for President, Governor, and Question 2. Counties in Red are GOP, Blue is liberal.

The second tab on the spreadsheet labeled "Missing Votes by County" shows the number of votes gained/lost by the GOP candidate to Obama in the prediction model. Summing this gives Romney the 12,000 vote margin victory he would have had, so when looking from where the missing votes are at, this is a tool. Many counties are under 1,000 votes, but the 4 largest blue counties were by far the most damaging.

I like him, but a lot can happen in a few years. Perhaps an issue that comes along and derails him like Rubio.

Also, noting his birth location (Alberta) and birth parents (Cuban Immigrant/US Citizen) are we going to have to put up with another round of NBC debates?

Also, I still don’t think Hillary Clinton is sold on running. The more that Cruz pushes “Benghazi” the less good that is going to look for Clinton when more of it comes out. I just don’t see Hillary with the energy to give it another go.

I still have my spreadsheets from the IA Caucuses and once we get to late 2015 will try to predict county by county votes for the candidates.

Right now, I see the following likely contenders:

GOP:
Sarah Palin/Ted Cruz/Allen West/Rand Paul

I see Rand Paul probably running, and possibly 1 of the other 3, but unlikely all 4 would run as I think ideologically they’d all be consistent enough to a point.

Newt (Newt’s coming back whether he has a shot or not)

Christie/Bush/Daniels - 1 of the 3 Establishment candidates will run. Daniels may run as a stalking horse for 1 of the other 2.

Rubio has been too badly hurt by the immigration issue.
Santorum filled a void in 2012, but won’t be back in 2016
Bachmann will not be back
Cain will not be back
Perry could come back, but unlikely.

Healy and Jindal are possible, but unlikely.

On the Democratic Side:
Hillary Clinton (everything seems to evolve around what she will do. If she runs, the Dems will probably reward her for being good and waiting 8 yearrs. If she doesn’t, the advantage goes to the 3 Governors in very liberal states:

Andrew Cuomo/Martin O’Malley - If the contest is between these two assuming Hillary doesn’t run, O’Malley’s only chance is he thinks he can get the minority vote nationwide like he has in Baltimore and PG County. Not sure that would pan out and I think this Cuomo would have an edge on him.

Deval Patrick - If he runs and gets the indirect support of the Obama White House, Hillary will NOT run as it will just be a repeat of 2008 (see former SC Dem Senate Primary in regards to why). O’Malleys base crumbles.

Pesonally, I could go for a Cruz/West or West/Cruz. But unless we reconfigure the delegate selection process to stop giving the RINOs the advantage, it could be a tough fight.

You know folks, we can complain all we want about this. Until somebody challenges the delegate selection process and restructures it to way that favors or at the very least equalizes the chances of a conservative winning the nomination, a Bush or Christie will be viable in all the typical blue state primaries.

It’s my belief Bush or Christie (but not both) will be in the race in 2016 with the person not running endorsing the other.

IA’s proportional guarantees 6 or 7 delegates with at least 25% of the vote, enough to carry momentum without winning the Caucus outright to the NH Primary where the RINO would normally be favored. SC could correct that, but the FL Primary would be an advantage to pro-Amnesty Bush in Dade County.

This advantage continues on. Look at the 2012 Calendar and all the Blue-States (blue last 2 Elections Cycles) that have been frontloaded. SC Cannot make the correction alone.

IA (Blue - RINO/Conservative tied due to split vote)
NH (Blue)- RINO State
SC (Red) - RINO Crushed 2-1 in only early solid red contest
FL (Blue) - Pro-Amnesty RINO picks up voting block of Broward/Dade/PBC which have tended to vote as a block for a candidate, which offsets anything else done in the middle or northern part of the state. Conservative cannot let this be WTA in 2016.
NV (Blue) - More Pro-Amnesty RINOs, conservative block makes up only a 25% of the Primary vote
CO (Blue) - It takes everything the conservative have in El Paso County to upset the RINO in a Blue State
MN (Blue) - Although the State is Blue, the voters tend to be conservative here
MO (Red) - Total domination by the Conservative, but the rules nullify the primary vote as “for show” only, negating whatever momentum
ME (Blue) - Wacky RINO territory. No chance for Conservative because there are none
AZ (Red) - The Pro-Amnesty Hispanic RINOs would support Bush/Christie over the Conservative candidate.
MI (Blue) - This is a split at best given the delegate rules
WY (Red) - Caucus state where Conservatives need to get out to support the conservative candidate over the RINO that will be well-represented by the Establishment
WA (Blue) - Another state where the Western RINO’s outnumber their Eastern Counterparts

And that’s before getting to Super Tuesday. Very few opportunities for the Conservative candidate to gain any momentum going forward. The bottom line is the delegate process MUST be restructured and this discussion must take place NOW, otherwise 2016 will be a repeat of 2008/2012

Nope, he’s real

http://spectator.org/blog/2011/09/28/tea-party-message-to-morgan-fr

Well, that IS the Democratic Party playbook. As long as he looks and sounds viable, I don’t see how Hillary would have any better shot against him than she did against Obama.

I don’t think Carson will run. Allen West is possible but his primary opponents will try to make him look weak for losing his House race, despite the fact his own party tried to district him out.

The immigration debate is killing Rubio at the moment which is a shame because he would have been at the top of the GOP list. Perhaps Ted Cruz? As Nikki Healey recovered from the Romney endorsement? Bobby Jindal?

Democrats/Liberals like to Capitalize/Politicize tragedies. This week's events was more than they could hope for in regards to getting Deval Patrick's name recognition out there.

Unless some other, bigger tragedy happens in NY (Cuomo) or Maryland (O'Malley), Patrick is the leading the Democratic Candidate for 2016.

Who are we going to send up?

At 19, hardly unlikely he is in Medical School. Isn’t Med School like Law School where you have to graduate with some kind of 4-yr Bachelors before admission?

Best photos I’ve seen so far.

That FB photo with all the Muslims celebrating something in the Park, I believe Suspect #2 is NOT the in that photo. The eyes are a give away. The one in the park picture has “softer” eyes (not sure how to explain that) that Suspect #2 does not.

As for where they are, we need to stop thinking in Western terms. These guys most likely didn’t flee the area. If I had to guess, they are probably at a Mosque somewhere under protection of an Imam.

Which, by the way, Boston’s Mosque is ran by the Muslim Brotherhood:

http://www.algemeiner.com/2013/04/19/muslim-brotherhood-linked-mosque%E2%80%99s-imam-replaced-as-speaker-at-service-for-boston-marathon-attack-victims/

yes, but for all we know, when the first explosion went off, this guy with the white cap (especially if he had a limp arm) may have dumped the bag so he could run faster and get away from the scence, and perhaps the place he dropped his bag to be able to high-tail it out there just happened to be the same spot where the real bag for the second explosion was already placed.

Unlikely, but possible.

I agree. But I think we should try to make it as unprofitable for them as possible to stay while in the meantime make a profit.

For example, I could go for a “comprehensive” immigration policy that included items like below, although I know it too would be looked as “cruel” and “inhumane”.

1. Secure the Border, firstly via fence, guards, etc
2. Give those living in this country a 6 month grace period to register with the Federal Government and receive an illegal resident Photo/Identification Number. All those illegals caught after the 6 month period not possessing the required ID would be deported.
3. Require all employers to retain this ID information and fine employers at least $1M or some other proportional amount percentage that would make it unprofitable for the business to hire undocumented workers.

Additionally,

Employed Illegals, regardless of wages earned, would automatically be placed into the highest tax bracket (35%) for Federal Income Tax purposes. Additionally, they would also be required to contribute to a rate 10% higher than the citizen population to SS/Medicare, benefits they would not be eligible to receive themselves until at least reaching an age 20 years beyond the legal citizen retirement age or 25 years after achieving legal citizenship, whichever is later. These extra taxes would be used to offset costs to illegals healthcare, etc, without putting the burden on the tax bill of the regular citizenry.

Illegally entering this country makes one ineligible for any type of Presidential Pardon

The ability to qualify for citizenship would not be fully allowed until a period of at least 10 years beyond what the normal timeframe is for legal immigrants to obtain citizenship. During this period, illegals are required to maintain/carry their illegal ID card at all times.
Their rights are limited to those of other legal visitors to the country, and they are subject to prison/deportation for crimes committed.

Once an Illegal receives an ID Card, they must remain in the United States for the entirety of the period it takes to obtain citizenship. If they decide to leave the United States for whatever reason, their ID Card information will be recorded and they will be prohibited from reentering the United States again for a period of not less than 20 years. Should they be found in the United States after leaving the country voluntarily prior to obtaining full citizenship, they will be subject to immediate deportation and any wages earned during this time will be recovered from either the Illegal or the Employer, plus an additional applicable fine.

Illegals will also be required to pass a standardized English test similar to the DLPT with a passing score. A test fee will be assessed to cover the costs of administering it. Failure to pass the test within 3 attempts will result in deportation.

Illegals would also be ineligible for any federally funded scholarships or financial aid and would normally be required to pay the non-resident established rate of tuition for public universities within their respective state. Additionally, state and local Governments would have the option of adding Illegals’ who have children attending public primary/secondary schools to the tax system and mandating the same or higher education tax usually assessed to property owners (Illegals would not be permitted to own property).

Tenants renting to Illegals would be assessed a 10% rent tax based on the rental amount, which would also be used to help pay/offset costs of illegals.

Illegals that stick it out and manage to obtain citizenship, will still have limited rights. They will still be ineligible to vote and to serve on jury trials for the next 3 Elections in which a President is chosen. Their tax burdens will be reduced to the normal brackets based on their wages, but they will still not be allowed to draw on SSI/Medicare benefits until they reach Age 82 or whatever 20 years after the qualifying retirement age is for non-Illegals.

There are two avenues that Illegals can opt of the consequences above. The first is that if they are able to enlist in one of the branches of the military or the Coast Guard, they will be given the same opportunity to earn their citizenship as are other foreign nationals that enlist in the US Military, provided they serve as least one full term on enlistment (normally 4 years) and receive an honorable discharge. Doing this would eliminate the additional tax burden and other restrictions.

The other Avenue falls under National Security. The Department of Labor, Defense, and Homeland Security would comprise a list of those specialties/skills (Medical, Science, etc) deemed critical to the National Security of the United States. This would allow Illegals majoring in these fields and advanced degrees, like Microbiology, or MD’s, to be eligible for federally funded scholarships or financial aid. Upon completion and other requirements, the burdens above would be removed.

These are just some basic ideas I had. If they’re going to stick around, might as well charge them for it. My guess is these burdens would make it unprofitable for many to stay and they would leave on their own, and that those who stick it out or qualify via military/school are the ones that actually want to be here and Americanize. Of course none of the above as a chance at ever passing because it would be looked at as too cruel.

And how long will it be before he won’t be able to hide (or his father’s nutcase anti-defense, anarchist supporters won’t permit him to hide) the same lunacy policies on defense?

Rand’s got a ton of questionable statements that have been buried since he focused on the more agreeable fiscal areas and was “forced” to give a correct opinion on the recent death of a seal member after his father made another one of his outrageous comments.

Fiscally, yes, but outside that many questions remain.

Here is the Updates for Alaska/Arizona. I’ll keep these in here because I don’t want to create 50 separate posts for each state, but once the analysis is done I’ll post the comprehensive Spreadsheet.

ALASKA (AT-LARGE)
Don Young (GOP) since 1973
Cook: R+12
Rating: 2
Notes: Too Corrupt, Too much Pork. Parnell nearly succeeded in Primarying him a few years ago with support from Palin when she was still Governor. Young held on by a few hundred votes. With Miller looking at another 2014 run, I would think perhaps this might be a good seat for perhaps Todd Palin? Then again, Alaska FReepers may have other names known in the state with fighting chances.

ARIZONA (1ST CD)
Ann Kirkpatrick (DEM)
Cook: R+3
Rating: 2
Notes: From what I can tell and according to info from other Tea Party websites, Paton was a decent candidate who got screwed by the Libertarian candidate. He could possible give it a go for another round in 2014 and win with a grassroots effort.

ARIZONA (2ND CD)
Ron Barber (DEM)
Cook: R+2
Rating: 2
Notes: Another Swing District. McSally was capable last time. Really, the way the 1st/2nd/9th are set up, given the momentum, 1 party will probably win all these districts.

ARIZONA (3RD CD)
Raul Grijalva (DEM)
Cook: D+7
Rating: 1
Notes: Extremist, supporter of Chicano-Liberation, pro-Amnesty, but district heavily liberal. Another charismatic Rubio on the GOP side would be the only conservative chance, but unlikely.

ARIZONA (4th CD)
Paul Gosar (GOP)
Cook: R+16
Rating: 5
Notes: Managed to avoid being “Wested” from his District. This one, I need more help on from AZ FReepers. I haven’t seen hard-votes but his stances appear in line with the Tea Party, yet I’ve seen some groups give him the RINO label. Can someone please clarify? This is a safe GOP District and if he needed to be Primaried he could.

ARIZONA (5TH CD)
Matt Salmon (GOP)
Cook: R+16
Rating: 4
Notes: Just Elected, appears Conservative, Pro-Tea Party, hasn’t appeared to do anything yet to change that

ARIZONA (6TH CD)
David Schweikert (GOP)
Cook: R+10
Rating: 4
Notes: Was retaliated against by Boehner for not towing Establishment line

ARIZONA (7TH CD)
Ed Pastor (DEM)
Cook: D+12
Rating: 1
Notes: Typical Liberal Extremist in Urban Phoenix

ARIZONA (8TH CD)
Trent Franks (GOP)
Cook: R+13
Rating: 4
Notes: Appears Solid Enough

ARIZONA (9TH CD)
Krysten Sinema (DEM)
Cook: R+1
Rating: 1
Notes: Another District where the Libertarian screwed the GOP and allowed an ultra-liberal to win. A conservative could and should win this seat the next time around along with the 1st and 2nd.

First State: Alabama Ratings: (1) Poor (2) RINOesque (3) Okay, but sometimes wishy-washy, (4) Good, (5) Solid

ALABAMA 1ST CD (Mobile, etc) Represented by: Jo Bonner District Heavily Republican/NonCompetive for over 50 Years Rating: (1) Notes: Bonner needs to go. Anti-Tea Party and definition of a "moderate". I do not have a whole lot of information on Young and Riehm who were supposed Tea Party candidates in 2012 getting a combined 39% of the vote. This needs to be an example though in that when a local Tea Party or confirmed local affiliate makes an endorsement, maximum effort should be taken to support whomever so that the vote doesn't get split. Bonner ran unopposed in 2012. This should be a no-brainer for target since winning the primary is almost certain to win the General Election. So why not get the candidate you want? If we can't primary Bonner out, we're not going to have success anywhere.

ALABAMA 2ND CD (Montgomery, etc) Represented by: Martha Roby District Decidely Republican, unless Bobby Bright or another big name Democrat that tries to run away from Obama/Pelosi, this seat is projected to be non-competitve in 2014. Rating (5) Roby seems pretty solid and her votes have been along Tea Party lines and received Palin's endorsement. I believe she is a keeper.

ALABAMA 3RD CD (East Alabama) Represented by: Mike Rogers District Pretty Republican, closest Dems got was within 6% in 2008. Rating: (3-2). It looks like we have one of those social conservatives trying to cover that up for their fiscal deficiencies (pork receiver). ACU gives him only a 50% rating. He signed the Tax Pledge, but is it for show? This looks like we could do better here. Maybe some of the other AL FReepers can come to his defense on the low rating.

ALABAMA 4TH CD (North-Central) Represented by: Robert Alderholt Heavily Republican Rating (4-5). Seems solid for the most part. Been in Congress for 16 years, maybe a little too protective on trade. Seems to be a keeper and perhaps hold his feet along with Martha Roby's to the fire in getting endorsements to Tea Party Challengers in the 1st and 3rd Districts.

ALABAMA 5TH CD (North Alabama) Represented by Mo Brooks One of the last Dixiecrat holdouts to switch Republican, but now pretty solid Rating: (4-5). Seems solid enough.

ALBAMA 6TH CD: (Birmingham suburbs-Central Alabama) Represneted by: Spencer Bachus Most Republican District in the Country Rating (3) The jury is out on this one. Votes in some places, but appears to have supported the GOP Establishment party line. Also blamed Palin's endorsements for the 2010 Senate loss. If the Tea Party could hand pick someone, winning the primary would ensure Election since Democrats haven't contest here in over 20+ years.

ALABAMA 7TH CD (Birmingham) Represented by: Terri Sewell (D) Heavily Democratic, Minority-Majority Population, Artur Davis' old district that he probably couldn't win today since his changes in views Rating (1) OK, obviously this District isn't up for grabs given the demographics, but this is one where if the Tea Party and Grassroots are really committed to changing and getting the message of what real conservative, limited government is and the importance of empowerment, then this district should not be ignored. There should be no reason why at least the Tea Party candidate shouldn't win the Republican Primary. If you want to change the direction of the country, these are the districts where the long-term time and effort must be spent.

So of the (7), there doesn't seem to be much we can do about Sewell, but Bonner needs to go. Rogers seems suspect. Bachus seems like a toss-up, while Roby, Alderholt and Brooks seem solid.

Senate: Jeff Sessions (seems solid)

If you think this was a bad exercise, then this was probably really bad

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhTof708DeHWdFJFUm1KSTAzMFZaeGJoal9Ob1EwV0E#gid=0

I went county-by-county projecting the vote for Romney and Obama, basing the counties previous results on the Bush/Kerry, Strickland/Kasich, Obama/McCain, and Union question to determine the probable votes for Romney and Obama in each county. My model shows Romney by about 12,000 votes.

Here’s one for Nevada. Same thing, same analyzed race data from 2004, 2008, and 2010. Obama has Romney by at least 3 points here, unless Romney does the unthinkable and runs at the same level as Sandoval, which is highly unlikely.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhTof708DeHWdDZXaFNqMEYzQXRINUp2OGJZWkc3MWc#gid=0

And then IA. By the margin of one suburb, I think Obama will survive in IA. I don’t see Romney getting to 770,000 votes here, but I don’t see Obama dropping below 765,000.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhTof708DeHWdElyaEVzZzROUW1Zb3l2MGpxcGpIanc#gid=0

The information on poll closings came from http://www.270towin.com. They have a page and set the times of state polls closing to the EST in which the last polls in that state close (if it happens to cross two time zones, like FL) which is the earliest it could be called.

They listed all closings in EST to make it simpler, so that’s the model I used.

This is how I think the vote count pans out on Election night. Most people have projected the same Electoral Map victory for Romney, including Rove.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhTof708DeHWdFJFUm1KSTAzMFZaeGJoal9Ob1EwV0E#gid=0

The numbers do not appear to change much before Election Day. While the total # of voters may shift, the winner in OH will probably win by 2/10-3/10 of a percentage point. Right now I have Romney at 50.11% to 49.89% for Obama among 5.5 million votes cast.

Latest Electoral Math Update

Turnout from Washoe/Clark Counties has been about 65-70%. I adjusted my simulation when I found the numbers from the NV SOS website listing the total number of voters (active and inactive) as of Sep 2012. Right now, lists 260,000 in Washoe and 1,008,000 in Clark.

Assuming around a 65% turnout, Washoe vote total should go down to 169,000, while Clark County should be around to 655,200 voters, assuming around a 65% turnout.

Right now, I have Romney with 48% in Washoe and 44% in Clark. The % are the same though. Obama still leads in NV by about 45,000 votes or 52-47%. I don’t see where Romney makes that difference up in NV. He’d have to run at the same level of state support as Sandoval, and I just don’t see that happening for the time being.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhTof708DeHWdDZXaFNqMEYzQXRINUp2OGJZWkc3MWc&hl=en#gid=0

Right now I have Obama 505,260/52% Romney 458,838/47%

It’s much closer in OH and IA.

IA:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhTof708DeHWdElyaEVzZzROUW1Zb3l2MGpxcGpIanc#gid=1

Obama 777,109/50.72% Romney 754,911/49.28%

OH:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhTof708DeHWdFJFUm1KSTAzMFZaeGJoal9Ob1EwV0E#gid=0

Romney: 2,781,909/50.11% to 2,769,785/49.89% (Get ready to unleash the lawyers in OH because I don’t see these numbers changing and the victory for either here will be <20K votes unless there is a major gaffe on either side that leads to a blowout.

I am trying to do one for CO today in the format I did for OH, but all their data is in PDFs and I’m having issues transferring it to Excel. My guess in Romney is up slightly more in CO than OH at the moment.

VA/NH not sure if I will get around to doing because results are also reports at city/township level and takes about as much work to do as it would to do a state like GA or TX with too many counties.

FL is proving difficult to do. Being wrong on the turnout with so many voters in most of the 67 counties puts too much margin for error, but I’m trying.

I’m skeptical about NC being in play. No way with the chaos here should this be close. If Romney gets, say, 46% or more in Buncombe County (Asheville), the state will 99% go GOP.

I may do one for MI since they have their stats on the SOS website set up easy to transfer similar to OH. Perhaps WI also.

I did, which would put Cuyahoga at about 587,000 votes for 2012. If this happened, Obama would be sunk. But there was also a decrease from 2004 to 2008 where there were only 12,000 less votes cast. 641,000 may be too high. I just have a hard time seeing that drastic a drop when all 88 counties have been consistent over the past decade in slight changes up or down. Not saying it can’t happen, I just don’t have any results to base it on.

Included in the County by County Analysis is the Following:

Results of the 2004 Presidential Election (Bush v Kerry)

Results of the 2008 Presidential Election (McCain v Obama)

Results of the 2010 Midterms (Kasich v Strickland)

Results of the 2011 Question 2 (Union Issue)

Using the data at the Secretary of State Website concerning the total number of registered voters within each county, I compared that number to the total number of Bush/Kerry and McCain/Obama votes to determine a turnout-percentage (Website says 04 was 72% and 08 was 69% and 10/11 was around 49-50%). I then apply whatever the trend has been in that county for the percentage.

In garnering real time results, I assume Romney started around 1-2% points higher than McCain, but lower than Bush for most counties. The exception is with what I call the PUMA Counties (McCain took a higher share than Bush some SE Ohio counties where Romney runs slightly ahead of McCain and ahead of Bush). After the debate, Romney picked up more ground to where he is now about 0.5-1% behind Bush in most counties or even, and around 3% or more above McCain (depending on the percentage gap between McCain and Bush). I tried comparing the 2010 Gov race percentages, but it is difficult, because Strickland’s perception that he is a conservative Democrat in the state allowed him to over-perform in the results.

Another interesting result is on Question 2. Even in heavily GOP counties, with few exceptions, Kasisch’s proposal was rejected. The only way this proposal got rejected is sizable number of Republicans had to vote against it. It doesn’t seem to effect these voters from still voting Republican however.

Looking at each county, I’ve estimated the vote totals and percentages I think Romney and Obama would receive. Prior to the debate this week, Romney was probably about several thousand votes down, but now it’s flipped in the other direction. OH is really, really close. There’s no way either candidate has more than a 3 or 4 point lead in this state. Romney’s lead will increase based on GOP turnout, while Obama’s total may increase based on lack of enthusiasm for Romney. With 30 days to go, anything can happen.

The bottom line is while the raw vote numbers may change, if Romney hits the percentages I’ve listed for each of the 88 counties, he should be able to win. Hopefully, this document will prove useful as a tool on Election night to see how the state is going. If any candidate overperforms the numbers I have listed, you can probably see how the state is going to go even if the networks don’t call it.

Historical Turnout of Democrats in OH:

2004 (35%)
2008 (39%)
2010 (36%)

Historical Turnout of Republicans in OH:

2004 (40%)
2008 (31%)
2010 (37%)

Just about everyone on both sides max-ed out in 2004. Obama’s surge in the state came from new voters not expected to vote anywhere near the numbers they did in 2008. Yet, even in 2010, when Dem turnout was lighter, they managed to get 36% out. This leads me to believe that the turnout for Dems will be either 36 or 37%.

The GOP is all over the map. We ran to the polls for Bush in record numbers in 2004, but the Obama surge, plus dissatisfaction for McCain with many GOPers changing Registration, sunk it to a new low in 2008. But, it picked back up in the midterms, and the GOP still has significant enthusiasm (although its limited due to the candidate being Romney) but not as much as 2010. The GOP will probably be 36-37%.

Indies have made up 25% (2004), 30% (2008), and 27% (2012). Some GOP lost in 2008 may have come back in 2012 to vote in the OH primary, which will probably keep this number around 27-28% rather than the 30% in 2008.

So if I had to guess for 2012, I’d say it’s safe to project a model for OH with a turnout of R(36 or 37) D(36) and I (27 or 28).

I have not had time to go through each of OH’s 88 counties yet. But the analysis of unskewing this poll seems to match what I have assumed, that Obama is slightly ahead in OH. To win OH, Romney must win the state outside of Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) by about 200,000 votes. To put things in perspective, Bush defeated Kerry by 371,000 votes outside of Cuyahoga County, while McCain defeated Obama by just 214 votes, hence losing the state. Outside of Cleveland, Romney, probably has anywhere from a 130,000-140,000 advantage. That number needs to be over 200,000 by Election day, preferably 225,000 to be safe.

Of my 12 state project, only 2 are completed. The links to Google Docs shows the data.

This is my methodology.

(1) I go through each County-by-County within the state (or in the Case of NH, I have to go by township/wards since its reported at that level)

(2) I get the number of Dem/Rep votes in 2004 and 2008, compare the increase/decrease in the voter turnout to make a projection of the Dem/Rep voter population in that County for 2012 (flawed I know, since constant growth or decline is not certain, but it gets me close)

(3) I compare Bush’s performance to McCain’s as well as performances in the 2008/12 primaries/caucuses and estimate what Romney would have to pull within the county to be competitive at the State Level. For NV and other states that had big 2010 contests, I also looked at the voting % of the GOP Senate and Gov candidates to get better estimates.

(4) I apply my percentages Romney/Obama needs in each county to my estimated voter population for that county.

(5) When all county votes are tallied statewide, I review the Voter Party (ID) and % Makeup of the 2004, 2006, 2008, and 2010 Elections, as well as the share of Dem/Rep/Ind that Bush, McCain, and Obama all received to determine an estimate of what Romney or Obama would receive in 2012.

(6) Highlighted Counties in Yellow are Counties each Party (Bush/McCain) and (Kerry/Obama) held in 2004/2008, respectively. Purple Counties are counties McCain lost that Bush carried (McCain won no Counties carried by Kerry in IA and NV).

Based on this, I make my projections for that state.

So far, I have only done IA and NV. I will probably do CO and FL next. For OH, I will say that currently, Romney is beating Obama outside Cuyahoga County by about 50,000 votes (compared to 371,000 for Bush and just 214 votes for McCain. To win OH, Romney must exceed Obama’s vote total by about 150,000-200,000 votes, depending on well he performs in places like Hamilton County.

Iowa:

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0BxTof708DeHWVGNpc3JuVXd2Vk0/edit

Right now, if the voting model is correct, Obama is up about 23,000 votes in IA or 50.72% to 49.28% for Romney or 777,109 votes to 754,911. There seems to be just one suburban area too much in IA for Romney to overcome, and Republicans have been leaving Western IA due to the economy. Comes down to places like Black Hawk, and the Eastern side, though I think Romney will fare better in Des Moines and the Western suburbs. The Party-ID total seems to be about even and will probably be something like R(34), D(33) I(33). It’s been over 24 years since the GOP Candidate won the Independent Vote in IA, so to counter, Romney must win a larger share of GOP than Obama does of Democrats. But right now, I have then about even, with Romney getting 92% of GOP and Obama 93% of the Dems. The Indie’s are about 52-48 split for Obama. While the final vote totals may differ due to voter turnout, I think these percentages will hold for now if nothing changes in the race. IA will be close, but it appears Obama still has a slight advantage.

Nevada:

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0BxTof708DeHWUGU1YmFSc2VuZ2s/edit

Nevada has fewer counties and is a lot easier to do. Additionally, I added in the results of Angle/Reid and Sandoval/Reid races to get additional analyses on the percentages.

Outside of Washoe/Clark counties, the GOP candidate is going to clean up. Unfortunately, there just aren’t that many people there to offset the larger areas. Additionally, you see another problem with the Republican Electorate in NV. Bush managed to carry the state because he outperformed on the Hispanic vote, something McCain never came close to equaling. Angle did only slightly better than McCain, while Sandoval far outpaced even Bush, probably helped by his Hispanic heritage.

When looking at the numbers, it becomes clear that Romney most likely isn’t going to reach Sandoval’s percentages, but he should be able to run several points higher than both McCain and Angle, probably close to Bush, but probably not exceeding Bush’s numbers. This is where a Rubio might have helped the ticket.

Additionally, in NV when you go through county by county, noticed the numbers Ron Paul got in the small counties. There may be a sizeable Mormon population in NV, but there’s also a Libertarian slant to it as well. What these Paul supporters do may decide how competitive the state is. In all honesty, Romney needs 80% or more outside of Clark and Washoe to have a shot in NV. If Gary Johnson cuts into this, even if it’s in the Rural counties with few voters, I don’t see how Romney competes here.

The demographics seem to favor Obama here. Right now, I have him ahead 52.74% to 47.26% or 579,379 votes to 519,254. Looking at Part ID Data from 2004, 2006, 2008, and 2010, we are probably looking at a make-up of R(33) D(35) (I) 32. Bush got 93% of the R, while McCain got 89-90%. I see Romney getting 92%. Kerry got 90% of the (D) and Obama 94%, though I think Obama will get only 92-93% this time around, but with the Party-ID advantage, that means Romney would have to win the Indy’s here. The GOP Candidate has averaged about 44-46% of the Indy vote in NV. I don’t see that changing, at least not for now. That gives Obama a 60,000 or 4-5% advantage here. Despite the closeness, this is a state I’m not sure Romney has a chance at.

Eventually when I get a chance, I’m going to do CO and FL next.

Jim, with all due respect you have no one to blame for this calamity except for yourself. On February 8, Romney was effectively defeated for the nomination when Santorum won a trifecta and began his surge. But it seems protecting your pride and ego was more important that stopping Mitt Romney.

The Santorum supporters were out here day after day fighting in the rebellion. What exactly did you do when Rick came out as the leading conservative, if not on Super Tuesday, then after KS, AL, and MS? Did you do anything to help Rick? Nope, you helped split the vote because you wouldn’t back down from Newt.

In my opinion, you owe Rick Santorum and his supporters an explanation and an apology for your inaction. In fact, since June, I’ve watched your site destroy the likes of Bachmann, Cain, as well as Santorum with some of the most vicious attacks and remarks that would be more appropriate for DU and the HuffPost.

This Election was lost on February 22, 2012, the day of the Arizona debate. The fact Rick recovered at all was a miracle in itself. If conservatives had coalesced around him in MI, OH, AK, WI, and WA, Santorum would have won. Additionally, Rick would have gotten delegate majorities in AL and MS, but with Newt in the race, allowed Romney to pick up a 1/3 of the delegates. This was well known BEFORE these primary races, yet it was IGNORED. All this talk of some BS brokered convention that wasn’t going to happen because the math wasn’t there.

I fully explained what was happening when Santorum surged in February. Many conservative voters did not like or trust Newt to act on anything. Santorum was the last hope of many Bachmann, Cain, and Perry supporters. When other bitter Newt people started trashing Santorum and bringing his numbers down, I knew what was going to happen: those people were going to give up. The fact Rick recovered somewhat is a testament to his strength.

Despite the contrary remarks, Santorum and Newt pulled the same voting demographics; Conservative, Males, 30-50, under 100K Income, Tea Party Supporters, Evangelicals. The difference is Rick got much more in these categories and WAY more in women and Evangelicals than Newt. Compare that to Romney, who’s core base was Moderate/Liberal, Women, Seniors >65, over 100K Income, Hispanics/Asians, Oppose Tea Party. There is virtually no overlap with Rick/Newt voters and Romney voters. If any Newt people were voting for Romney, it was to spite Santorum, otherwise Santorum would have gotten almost all of Newt’s voters.

So Congratulations! You got what you wanted by sitting on the sidelines and refusing to help Santorum. With allies like this, it’s amazing ANY conservatives even bother to run at all. I’ve seen the writing on the wall. Eventually, Allen West, Marco Rubio, and eventually Sarah Palin will all get torn to shreds by so-called “conservatives” here calling them out for being RINOs.

I had high hopes for this election cycle last June. I really thought we had a chance of getting a conservative at the top of the ticket. But this website destroyed whatever hope I had. From the very beginning, the conservatives got ripped to shreds here. First it was Bachmann “Ed Rollins”, then Cain “Sexual Deviant”, Perry “Moron”, Santorum “Saint Rick, Sanctimonius, etc”, with all of them at one time or another being accused of being a stalking horse for Romney.
Yet, go back to MI, OH, AK, and WI and it is clear to see who the stalking horse really was.

Anyway, I’m out of here.

WTF? There’s hope!

Santorum winning Dane County (Madison) early?

Early, but any lead with 5% in means it won’t be a blowout at least in that suburb.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/wi

Get ready for him and Andrew Cuomo to duke it out in 2016. That is, if Obama hasn’t declared himself a dictator by then.

Nope. It’s over.

44% Romney, 37% Santorum is my best guess.

Romney is projected to have 1,270 delegates based on the remaining contests. With over a 100+ probably delegate cushion, a brokered convention is all but out of the question.

liberal yes?

But the Eastern Shore and Western Maryland, as well as Caroll/Harford/Cecil parts are pretty conservative, and Romney is winning in all these areas. Romney should NOT be winning in Cumberland or Hagerstown, but is.

What this means with the Eastern shore results is you might as well write Delaware off as well. Romney will probably win all three counties here, even Sussex.

At a minimum, a conservative should have been able to carry the 6th District (Carroll, Frederick, Washington, Garrett) and the 1st (Eastern Shore, Harford, Cecil). Neither is going to happen.

Ping

Last hoorah is tonight folks. The unrelenting vicious attacks on Santorum have served their purpose. With an upcoming victory for Romney in WI, he is well on his way to shifting PA, NC, and IN to toss-up, and will be projected at about 1,270 delegates based on the remaining contests, more than enough to win.

We have fought a good fight and kept up our end of the bargain to stop Mitt Romney. The coming disaster can’t be placed on us.

Feb 8 2012, the date Romney was effectively defeated for the nomination.

Feb 22, 2012, the date Romney effectively clinched the nomination.

Lucky whoever one. Used to live in B'more County a few years ago.

Mark my words.

One day soon, we will most likely be reading Keith Olbermann’s obituary about how he hung/shot himself in his apartment. You can tell just by his mentality he well on his way to ending his sad, pathetic, existence. The only question is whether or not it will occur before or after we read a similar obituary on Charlie Sheen croaking on a drug OD.

Shoulda, woulda coulda.

The conservative vote may not have been split as much with her in, but the Establishment would have ensured Romney an advantage just by carrying what are the “blue” states anyway. For example, Romney would still win just about all the Northeast states, the Island Territories, the Mormon Western States, and AZ/FL whether Palin was in or not. The exceptions are MI, OH, AK, and VA where Romney would have lost those states had the vote not been split. Given how “conservative” “red” states seem to be more Proportional and “moderate/liberal” blue states WTA, this would have probably been headed for the convention.

The rules as they stand now will prevent a conservative from ever getting the nomination. The formula needs to be reversed (Southern states need to be WTA and Blue States need to be proportional). The way it’s set up now, we have a nominee that’s going to win by not carrying a single southern state in the primary/caucus season. If Romney wern’t a Mormon, I’d doubt he’d have won any traditional Republican states.

Well I have looked at the WI simulation, and to be honest, I don’t see how Rick DOESN’T win WI. There seems to clearly be enough conservative voters to offset Milwaukee/Madison.

In 2008, McCain got 55%, Huckabee 35%. Romney was out by the time of the Primary, so it’s hard to tell if what would normally be Romney voters ended up voting for the Huckster as a protest to McCain.

Like IL/LA, Rick got close to 85-90% of the Huckabee vote. The problem in IL was that there just wasn’t enough of them in Southern IL. Rick’s been getting anywhere from 25-30% of the McCain vote, while Romney’s been getting over 50%, with Newt picking up about 10% of Huck and 10% of McCain. This has been pretty stable from state to state.

If Rick gets 90% of the Huckabee voters from 2008 and just 15% of the McCain vote, that will be him around 40 alone. The one unknown, is how many 08 Primary voters voted for Huckabee as a protest over McCain once Romney dropped out. It could be a significant number (10% or more), which if accurate may explain why Romney has a 7 point lead at the moment.

Bottom line: For Rick to win WI, he needs 90% of the Huckabee voters and at least 15% of the McCain voters. Romney is banking on getting 90% of the McCain voters and at least 10% of the Huckabee voters that only voted Huckabee last time as a protest to McCain. Newt gets the remants between those two categories.

If I had to guess right now, based on polling information and demographical data, I’d say it’s shaping up for the winner to get 44-45%, 2nd Place 39-40%, Newt/Paul 14-15%

yeah and so does Newt, don’t you know.

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/294478/gingrich-sure-id-be-romneys-vp-katrina-trinko

WI Delegates are not WTA. They are WTA by CD (3 for each CD), 18 Delegates to the Overall winner of the State, and Superdelegates are bound by the results if the Winner gets at least 33% of the vote, which most likely will occur.

Romney is bound to win the CD’s in Milwaukee/Madison. Santorum is fighting for everything else an a 36-6 split.

Unlike IL, there are sizeable conservative populations enough to offset the more moderate/liberal areas. Mike Huckabee got nearly 35% of the vote in 2008, though Romney had dropped out by then. If Santorum can retain 90% of this Huckabee vote, and get just 10-15% of the McCain voters from 2008, he can win WI in the low/mid 40’s.

boo-hoo

Santorum’s SUPERPAC should turn around and run an ad on Romney saying “I don’t care about poor people” on how Romney has no plan for EMPOWERMENT of poor people out of poverty.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tqSrpynRTlk

They could also run this on Obama not caring about gas prices
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4yFsaxw6L8&feature=related

You’re just as bad as the CBS sleazeball that tried to distort Santorum’s comments.

Santorum said “Romney was the worst candidate to go against Obama ON HEALTHCARE/OBAMCARE”

Watch this video. In addition to taking the reporter head-on, Rick is speaking to people like you too.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5U7fTPb8U4

Hey looky here:

Gingrich: Sure, I’d be Romney’s VP
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2864194/posts

Hey Romneybot, Newt said the same thing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urRiJpar2F0

It’s hard to describe. One of those things you have to see.

Basically, Santorum was going off in his speech how it would suck to have Romney has the nominee going up against Obama because the issue of “Obamacare/Romneycare”. Because Romneycare was the blueprint for Obamacare, Santorum said in his speech that Romney was probably the worst candidate to put up against Obama because of that issue. The reporter then tried to get Santorum to admit he said theat “Romney was the worst Republican in the country” without the reference to Healthcare. Santorum tries to correct him 3 times in less than 2 minutes, then loses his cool because at the same time this is going on, a Romney surrogate in the room is spreading the statement to the other reporters.

Santorum’s signing signs for supporters. You can tell one woman, Peggy from MN turn to the CBS Reporter and tell him “we don’t care what you have to say”.

In a nutshell, it was freaking awesome.

Sorry, forgot to PING you on this.

PING!

GO RICK!

Newt said the same thing. But that’s different, right? /sarc

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urRiJpar2F0

And Newt was open to having Romney as a running mate, but that’s overlooked /sarc

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urRiJpar2F0

yeah, whatever. He’s still going to beat Newt in WI and MD. And all the clique-bashing in the world isn’t going to change that.

hey look! Another article posted from the same source/subject so that Santorum bashers can get him some more.

Santorum gave an OPINION, which last I checked is a free speech thing. He’s not serving on the jury, neither is he a judge, State Attorney, or Attorney General. His OPINION will have 0, ZILCH, NADA, bearing on the outcome.

I guess Rick must have also been wrong to OPINE on the Jerry Sandusky investigation since that case is still pending as well.