Free Republic

No one who still values conservative principles should give to this shitty website that portends to defend conservative ideals.

How many millions of unborn babies have been murdered on FR’s watch?

How many decent conservatives have been slandered at FR for standing up for the Constitution?

Donald Trump is the destruction of this website. I will NEVER support this asshole trickster who is the epitomy of Mathhew 24:24

You should be ashamed of yourself. I hope in future FReepathons your blood money runs dry. And since you are closer to meeting your maker than many of us are, you had best hope HE doesn’t tell you “Depart from me” like he’ll tell Trump since Trump says he’s never asked God for forgiveness. You can bullshit all the people you want trying to pretend Trump is some sort of conservative outsider, but you’ll never Bullshit the Lord.

20% of Republicans will NEVER vote for Trump. Count me as one of them. And I will do my damnest to defeat this asshole to protect the ideals of limited government, life, and liberty which is far more than anything you or your shitty site has done the last 20 years.

I will never forgive you for the vitriol you allowed to spew on Ted Cruz at this fraudulent conservative website.. Hillary Clinton’s guaranteed election is on YOUR Hands, not mine. You were the ones that abandoned conservatism for populism and nationalist bullshit. Not me.

Do the honorable thing and shut this dumpster fire down. You’ve done more to damage this country at it’s greatest time of need than any one person could do. Your actions have assured the contiued destruction of our country to the liberal downslide.

Have fun with your Groupthink. When you discount the General Election polls that show Hilderbitch crushing the faux Conservative, don’t say you were warned.

#NEVERTRUMP

Do you have any specific numbers for Fairfield County?

This is a heavily DEM County, but oddly, the % of the 08 and 12 GOP Primaries were closest to the results of any in the state:

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/SC.html

McCain: 33.2
Huck 29.9
Thompson: 15.7

vrs
McCain 33%
Huck: 29%
Thompson: 17%

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/states/south-carolina

Newt: 40.4%
Romney: 27.8
Sant: 17%
Paul: 13%

vrs

Gingrich: 41%
Romney: 29%
Sant: 17%
Paul 11%

So +/- 2% but pretty consistent to the overall statewide totals. There were 2,385 that voted in the GOP Primary, which is a pretty high number considering the GOP Nominee usually gets only 3,900 votes in the General Election.

So if you’re saying 700,00, it’s looking like we may see about 2,600 people in Fairfield. If that happens, then Trump probably wins. I’d estimate he’d have at lesat 800 votes. For Cruz to have a chance, he has to be within about 50 votes here, but he’ll be lucky to get to 600. My last stats had him with about 510 with this turnout but even if he gets to 600 it would match the WSJ Poll but still not be enough. Turnout in this county needs to come down to around 2,000 or less.

Based on what you’re projecting, I’d guess:
800 - Trump
510 - Cruz
480 - Rubio
280 - Bush
230 - Carson
165 - Kasich
Others / More Trump Votes: 135

Before you know who gets suspended happy, can you give some insight into the real situation in SC.

I haven’t forgotten that in 2012 I was way, way off on turnout. You tried to tell me over 600,000 were coming out and I said you were smoking crack because that would have been a 33% increase from 2008.

Well it happened. And in addition to that I noted that many of the SC DEM Counties that don’t have a high turnout normally in the primary had pretty high growth with Newt picking up the bulk of the support.

So where does it stand this time. Are we going to see 600,000 again? Is SC going to back a Pro-Planned Parenthood funder who blames W for 9/11 and that he lied about WMDs?

If SC goes the way as Iowa, it looks like Cruz should win out a little in the NW part of the state, do no worse than splitting in the low-country low populated counties with Trump, and then hope a Rubio or Establishment takes more votes from Trump in Charleston/Myrtle Beach/Columbia that doesn’t give him a place to make up the vote difference like it did when Rubio won Davenport, Des Moines, and Ames, Cruz still managed to win the heavily populated Evangelical areas in Sioux County and hold his vote totals from previous cycles in the populated areas. If this plays out, Cruz should win.

But then again if SC voters are just as stupid as the mindless Trumpbots on this site, it doesn’t matter anyway since this country is screwed anyways.

It’s not about the neutrality.

Rush and Mark want to believe that after years and years of listening, their audience would be able to identify a true constitutional conservative over a fraud without them having to painstakingly point it out bit by bit.

Obviously this isn’t the case. Anybody that’s stupid enough to vote for Trump obviously isn’t a conservative. Yet, you notice a boatload of Trumptards come into these threads every single day even after they swear “never to listen to Rush/Levin” again because they desperately want validation for their insane hero worhsip of Anthony Kennedy, er Trump (the political equivalent of Anthony Kennedy).

Take your Anti-Semitism to another thread Liz. I’m not going to tolerate your BS polluting this thread.

For those unaware, Liz is an Anti-Semite that criticized Cruz for “taking advantage of the goodwill of Arab Christians” and thinks it was great Cruz was booed off stage at this event because Cruz compared the plight of Arab Christians to the plight of the Israelis and that there was common ground and a need to stand with them.

This has been documented in her posting history several times.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUtUyPS1etQ

HOLD ON!

I just remembered something VERY Important.

NH Polls don’t use voter files. Plus they allow people to vote in their primary if they have the “intention” of claiming residence in the state.

I forgot, Hillar won NH Primary in 2008 Primarily because she bussed in supporters from Mass. I suspect a lot of that will be going on Tuesday for the Dems as well.

Watch those State Lines for charter buses coming into Nashua/Dartmouth/Salem on Tuesday!

Dude, stop it, just stop it.

It’s been a week and you still can’t find ONE person willing to come forwrad that will say “Hey I was going to vote for Ben but then the Cruz people told me he was dropping out and I switched to Cruz and got bamboozled”.

Cruz won IA fair and square. Get over it.

Lol, Carson isn’t getting 7% of the vote in a state he’s done virtually no campaigning. Carly will most likely beat him.

You are severally underestimating Kasich’s strength on the ground in NH. He has campaigned there like McCain as if he’s running for President of NH. He will get at least double digits, the voters aren’t bothered by his amnesty talk because they’re a bunch of libs anyway. Ditto with the Jebster.

I know you’re trying to drag more points for Trump, but just like in IA, they aren’t there. Trump can get as high as 25% and that’s if nobody else crosses 15%, which is possible. But the 30%’s or higher? Unlikely.

The easiest method to use is to work "backwards" because information at the lower end is more certain than the upper end.

Carly/Carson/Gilmore: (5%) -Even ABC didn't think Carson was still in the race as they virtually ignored him for most of the debate. I'm no Carly fan, but at least she's been actively campaigning in NH and had she been on stage maybe Hillary Clinton would've been mentioned and attacked more than last night. Nevertheless, they probably won't comprise more than 5% of the NH vote, and that's including the handful of people who know who the heck Jim Gilmore is.

Christie/Bush/Kasich (40%) - Last night's debate was make or break for these guys. Had Rubio not stumbled and unified the Establishment, they'd pretty much all be toast. But that didn't happen. Kasich is apparently where Huntsman was 4 years ago in the polls and Bush is close behind. Christie was lagging despite the Union Leader endorsement, but after the assault he put in Rubio last night, it's almost certain that he will at least get to double digits with the rest of them. And that's the problem. None of these guys have nowhere to go after NH so taking down Rubio as important as it was, won't be good enough. Had Rubio consolidated the Establishment vote, the 3 Governors may have combined for as high as 30% on Tuesday, but now it looks more likely that they will take at least 40% with all 3 of them hovering around 13% plus or minus a few points. In this situation, I don't see what difference it makes to be the lead Governor here unless one of them tops Rubio.

Rubio - He blew it, no way around to say it. Rubio had the best chance to jump into the mid-upper 20's had he consolidated the Establishment vote. But now it's a cluster. He could still probably finish ahead of the 3 Gov's or slip into the same percentages with them. I'm guessing 15% is his floor where one of the Govs may or may not catch him for 3rd.

So that leaves 40% of the vote to decide between Trump and Cruz, meaning the first one to 20% wins.

Cruz largely avoided the Rubio assault last night and nobody really attacked him because his voters are not the same for the Establshment. A good showing for Cruz would be to pick up at least 70% of Santorum voters and 50% of Ron Paul supporters from the 2012 results which would get him to around 18% and clear 2nd. But because it looks like whoever can post 20% will win, there is a slight chance Cruz can slip through and win in an upset. If that happened, it would be a historic upset and I don't think the margin would be more than a handful of votes.

That leaves Trump. After assigning all the numbers, I see Trump winning the NH Primary with about 22% of the vote. He could get to 25% if Cruz fails to clear the field for a solid 2nd, but I think 25% is his cap. This is why that debate for Rubio was so devestating last night. Trump largely stayed out of the fray but some of his answers were horrid such as on eminent domain, forgetting that there's $350B in Medicaid already taking care of the indigent, and his cheap shot at Cruz in the end in his closing statement that was pretty cowardly.

But NH is a liberal/moderate state. And for those of you into facts, the last time a GOP Candidate won a contested NH Primary AND the Presidency was in 1988 with Bush 41. The last time a Democratic Candidate won a contested Dem Primary AND the Presicdency was Jimmy Carter in 1976! So this thing about NH picking President may be over-rated because Obama, GWB, and Clinton all lost their contested NH Primaries.

To Recap: Trump 22% Cruz: 18% Rubio: 15% Kasich/Bush/Christie: ~40% total Caly/Carson/Gilmore: ~5% total

Take a look at this map

https://www.iagopcaucuses.com/#/state

Donald Trump can stay in for as long as he wants for all I care! The map shows the REAL story. Trump dings Cruz in the rural areas but not enough to get an overall statewide advantage. It’s almost a tradeoff in the small populated areas. But in the Urban areas such as Des Moines and Davenport where the more moderate Republicans are, Trump underperformed but was clearly getting his votes of Establishment voters that kept Rubio from racking up an Establishment margin in the area of that state. Cruz’s totals in Polk/Scott Counties were the same as the conservative canddiate before. Trump was clearly hurting Rubio much more than Cruz.

If these 3 are still in at SC, Cruz will win the same way. Myrtle Beach and Charleston are the most “moderate” Republican areas in the state. Based on IA, Rubio won’t rack up the Establishment margins in these areas needed to win SC thanks to Trump. But Trump won’t be able to get a big enough advantage over Cruz in the more conservative parts along the I-85 corridor and in the low country.

As for NH, Cruz doesn’t need to win. He just neeeds to finish strong leading into SC. His best chance is to consolidate the liberty/Tea Party voters which is good enough for about 20%. It could be good enough for 2nd if Rubio doesn’t consolidate the Establishment Vote, or 3rd at worst. And if Trump slides AND Rubio fails to consolidate the Establishment vote, then Ted DOES have a chance in NH.

Changes nothing because you’ve lost your ability to think.

How sad.

Dang CW, don’t any of you guys ever sleep at night. I did a search on the first page thinking not a lot of articles would be posted overnight, but there it was on the next page. Sorry about that.

We’ve got a duplicate here mods, please delete my thread. Thanks.

PING. I might be going out on a limb here, but I don’t think Ms. Pierson like Christians. /sarc

Nah, this isn't something to worry about. I love to get my dose of liberty served like this /sarc

2 Things I always thought Trump was supposed to be good at: (1) Finding Great People and (2) Firing not so great people. Might be time for Trump to do a #2.

Thanks for the link. It wasn’t posted to YT yet so I didn’t get a chance to upload that. Is there 1 video with the full program now?

Conservative outrage for the bailouts? You mean the bailouts Donald Trump was on record as vocally supporting?

The Establishment vrs Trump, eh?

But Burr, Hatch, Dole, McConnell have all pretty much said they can work with Trump and would choose him to stop Cruz because they know they can work with him to get the RINO deals done?

And again, trying to paint people like Loesch, Sowell, Bozell as “Establishment”? Um, ok.

Why, because they have principles and beliefs vital to conservatism that they are unwilling to compromise and view Trump with great skepticism? Did ANY of these people in the video go after Donald Trump personally, or did they stick to the issues?

Not necessarily true, there is a mixed bag.

I see about 8 on the list I know have come out for Cruz. There’s also definite RINOs like Kristol. Squishes like Medved. And Sowell is one of those that really believes Cruz is a showboater event though he agrees with him on most issues.

Minus Lowry, for the 3 that were interviewed tonight in the video, I don’t think any of them would be considered Bushies.

PING (we’re not alone asking these questions that need to be asked, hopefully)

There's obvious RINOs on this list, but come on. Dana Loesch is an Establishment hack now? Thomas Sowell (who doesn't even like Cruz)? Brent Bozell?

The schism is deep and wide. Mark Levin said if you find yourself asking the kinds of questions these people were, it means you're probably a conservative because your an independent thinker who values liberty.