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All predictions of highly chaotic and random systems are by their very nature "fake"

Oh my, it appears FRiend that you have pulled my chain.

For the "reality of the moment" is quite the opposite from your statement.

The science of Chaos Theory has matured to the point where we are very comfortable saying that:

1. All systems move from order into chaos in exactly the same beautiful dance of math and are easily identified. (see Feigenbaum Rhythm)

2. Chaotic behavior can, in large part, be understood as our failure to understand the very complex rhythms of dynamic systems. But identifying and predicting these systems is a growing scientific pastime of many an eager physicist.

Regards

Abby,

You are one of my favorite souls and I love you dearly, but please wait until this type of news breaks in the media before posting.

This might turn very badly on you one day.

Me

All species are subject to cycles of sustained growth and sudden calamity.

The classical symptoms of a species in crisis include:

1. Increased aggression

2. Sexual dysfunction

3. And disease.

"For this to have been an act of God, God would have to have been all-knowing, foreseen this very conflict roughly 1,000 years before it occurred, foreseen the bog market, foreseen the use of power tools, foreseen the individual working the equipment and ensured this particular one was working that part of that bog that day, have created the book of its various parts (leather, the paper within) in the first place, have placed it in that place for 1,000 years of earthquakes and various other acts of God, foreseen the person who purchased the land would happen to be of the save artifacts mindset (not common among money-hungry landowners) and foreseen the need to it open to that page on that day. I don't know, seems all haphazard to me."

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The author suggests that these random events were unable to reach this moment, via the chaos of history, at exactly the right time.

I disagree.

Chaos is not random, but is an occult, "hidden," or implicate order within nature. 

Deism is the belief that the Creator put the universe into motion, but rather than remaining separate from it, actually became it, remaining hidden in the background and operating as natural law.

This law, it was believed, could be discerned by the minds of people who cared to look for it.

Many of the founders of the United States were deists, including Benjamin Franklin and George Washington.

Or the discovery of the universal rhythms that permeate chaos, may simply be the fingerprints of God.

But, either way, this small series of seemingly random events is small potatoes in the beautiful dance of math that underlies all nature.

Regards,

EBOLA

Ebola virus is also one of the rarest viral infections in humans. Despite the tremendous attention it has received in recent years, of all the pathogens that have plagued mankind throughout history, Ebola virus is little more than a bit player. It has sustained but nine major outbreaks since it was first recognized some 25 years ago, claiming at most a few hundred lives each time. By comparison, five times as many people die in workplace accidents in the United States each year than all those who have ever died of Ebola hemorrhagic fever.

BIRD FLU

Up to 29 May 2006, there have been 224 confirmed cases in humans in Azerbaijan, Cambodia, China, Djibouti, Egypt, Indonesia, Iraq, Thailand, Turkey and Vietnam.

127 People have died.

HIV

More than 25 million people have died of AIDS since 1981.

Africa has 12 million AIDS orphans.

By the end of 2005, women accounted for 48% of all adults living with HIV worldwide, and for 59% in sub-Saharan Africa.

Young people (15-24 years old) account for half of all new HIV infections worldwide - around 6,000 become infected with HIV every day.

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No matter how unpleasent the real facts are - it is best if we strive for accuracy.

The End Of The Beginning

The Times It was deep into the Last Days when the messages began to appear upon the Matrix. The virus was raging in Africa, exploding in Asia, and had already killed more Americans than the Vietnam and Korean War combined. There were an estimated 14,000 new infections a day, but no one knew the real numbers. The virus was sweeping through the human species like wildfire. HIV had broken out of Africa and could now be found in every major population. It was within this cauldron of woe that the messages first appeared. The Matrix, at that time, was largely a toy for the bored and lonely. But those were not innocent days. Beneath the mundane ran a tremor of something dark. Erotica, which had driven the first cyberspace expansion, turned more profane, more degrading and raw. Discussion nodes on the Matrix filled with anger and derision. Shadows of dark mixed with the light - the Matrix was both the Changer and the Changed. The First Message The first message was written in the language of math. A new math that was barely as old as the Matrix itself. It was the math of Chaos - the study of rhythms. The math of Chaos is rooted in epiphany. A young wunderkind named Mitchell Feigenbaum, while playing with a cheap calculator, sensed something in the the seemingly random flow of numbers. He looked into the very core of our universe, saw something beautiful and changed the world. What Mr. Feigenbaum discovered was an undercurrent of rhythms. Rhythms in the Chaos. Rhythms that were not only mathematically pure, but that appeared to permeate every aspect of physical existence. It was as though he had discovered the fingerprints of God. He saw that Chaos was filled with perfect rhythms - too complex for mortal perception. Perhaps the most startling of these rhythms was the discovery that all orderly systems disintegrate into Chaos in exactly the same way. The locust in Africa - the oil flowing smoothly in a Siberian pipeline - and the drip of water from the tap, all change from order to disorder in exactly the same beautiful dance of math. The rhythm is so precise that it is expressed in a number (4.669) carried to four decimal places. Fittingly it is called the Feigenbaum Constant. Other rhythms have acquired similar names. One, which describes a complex dynamic system, is called the Strange Attractor. While the language of chaos is often oblique, the first message described an ancient rhythm, correctly identified it as a Strange Attractor, and listed several universal criteria with remarkable clarity. Words deeply rooted in the truth have a special kind of power. The whole of their influence extends beyond the thoughts expressed. Thus it was with the first message. It was called Futures.

Oh my, it appears that I forgot to make my point. Sorry - I am trying to type and watch golf at the same time. (Tiger is making a run)

Briefly stated:

We have discovered that chaos has more to do with our limited ability to perceive highly complex rhythms than randomness.

In fact Mitchell's work casts a very long shadow over even the concept of "randomness".

His epiphany occurred while studying apparent rhythms in the randomly generated numbers of a cheap pocket calculator.

Very well stated.

The question of randomness in chaos has been settled.

All systems go from order to chaos in the same beautiful dance of math.

The rhythm is so perfect that we have discovered the mathematical constant that regulates the process.

It is called Feigenbaum's constant.

This constant governs the behavior of systems that are approaching chaos; it was discovered by the American mathematical physicist Mitchell Feigenbaum in 1975 and has the value delta = 4.6692...

All chaotic systems have a behavior, as they approach instability, known as period doubling. The Feigenbaum constant gives the rate at which the period of the system doubles.

This dance of math appears to be universal across all aspects of physical nature (at least).

Roaddog: You are using math to answer Stephen's question. I can't help but believe that it is an answer he would appreciate.

Here is my follow up on your response

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Stephen: You ask about our future/futures, my response remains the same.


STRANGE ATTRACTORS (Clues)

All species are subject to cycles of sustained growth and sudden calamity.

It is a rhythm as old as life itself, and is an integral part of the evolutionary process.

The classical symptoms of a species in crisis include:
Increased aggression
Sexual dysfunction
And disease.

VARIABLES (Sometimes you really do need to answer a question with a question)

Is the AIDS virus increasing or decreasing its spread into the human species?

How many people who contract AIDS get well?

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Ideals, Dreams, And cherished hopes rise within us only to meet the horrible truth. And be shattered.

ANNE FRANK

Can I have the 9 4 14 16 30

Can I get a free drink with my bet?

Thank you both for bringing me up to speed on this aspect of Streptococcus suis infection.

I will add this citation to the ones you have posted.

WHO - An outbreak in Sichuan Province, China, associated with high mortality

Many cases are not serious, but in a significant minority, severe manifestations, including meningitis and toxic shock syndrome (TSS) can occur and may result in death.

However, outbreaks of Streptococcus suis infection are unusual.

In addition, although many of the clinical features described in the outbreak are consistent with Streptococcus suis infection, the apparent proportion of patients showing severe illness and the level of mortality appear relatively high.

However, this may reflect the easier identification of more serious cases at the beginning of the investigation

Any outbreak that shows unusual or previously unreported features requires a thorough clinical, laboratory investigation to obtain a complete picture.

Can you expand a bit on S. suis serotype 2?


My recollection (the software is not what it once was) is that in man, S. suis serotype 2 can cause arthritis, fever, meningitis, and permanent hearing loss.

But there have been <100 human cases worldwide.

Perhaps you might, when time allows, dig up a citation that shows S. suis serotype causing multi-organ failure and death in < 24hrs.

Thanks

Based on the information available (if correct);


Differential Diagnosis - Ricin

Well said.

If I may, let me enlarge the scope of this argument.

While the demographic effects of sectarian birth rates are undeniable, there are larger questions of viability when applied to species.

In brief:

All species are subject to cycles of sustained growth and sudden calamity. It is a rhythm as old as life itself, and is an integral part of the evolutionary process.

The classical symptoms of a species in crisis include:

Increased aggression
Sexual dysfunction
And disease.

Abby,

Thank your for the mention.

Approximately 30ºN, 90ºW

Precancerous Lesions

At Hong Kong's Prince of Wales hospital ten elderly men, admitted separately to the same ward, have each developed fever.

It is feared the men could have SARS or bird flu.

The men have been tested, and results should be available in the next few hours.

No sickness has been reported in hospital staff.

Ping to #34

FYI

As of yesterday, we are discounting the human-to-human transmission of H5N1.

The three deaths within a family in northern Thai Binh province involves contact with infected chickens - all of the victims had contact with the slaughtered birds.

At this time, there is no evidence of H5N1 being passed from person to person.