Posted on 05/09/2005 10:18:08 AM PDT by Dog Gone
Some folks suggested that we begin a thread similar to the Marsburg Surveillance Project for monitoring developments regarding Avian Flu.
The purpose is to have an extended thread where those interested can post articles and comments as this story unfolds.
If we're lucky, the story and this thread will fade away.
I've seen it too. The source was an anecdotal report from the Boxun folks. Seems some of the people supposedly from the "Strep Suis" bacteria in pigs have been dying very quickly after coming in contact with pig blood during the slaughtering process. The fastest was 2 hours.
It was assumed exposure to the pig blood is what led to death, but that assumption has not been confirmed.
Strep Suis has NEVER been even remotely this dangerous before. Hence the suspicion that the mysterious pig disease is something else. The Chinese decision to move 50,000 "medical workers" into place was supposedly to monitor this bacterial pig disease.
Since a common sequence for flu is birds to pigs to humans, with the jump from pigs to humans fairly easy, it is natural to wonder if the real culprit behind the pig disease is H5N1. Since the Chinese are not cooperating, we have no conclusive proof.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-1724318,00.html
The Sunday Times - Britain
August 07, 2005
Britain prepares for bird flu death toll of thousands
Jonathon Carr-Brown, Health Correspondent
THE government is to mount an exercise to help emergency services prepare for any potential bird flu pandemic that could kill thousands of people in Britain.
The disease has already jumped species, leading to three human outbreaks, the most serious of which killed 23 out of 34 people infected in Asia last year.
Sir Liam Donaldson, the chief medical officer, has said that the question “is not if the pandemic comes, but when”.
The exercise in September — a table-top simulation in a bunker beneath Whitehall — will be co-ordinated by Cobra, the cabinet civil emergencies committee, and will involve the army, police, health department and other key government organisations.
The aim is to gauge how the country would cope if a mutation of the virus affecting chickens and ducks in Asia were to sweep the human population in a global pandemic.
According to the health department’s contingency plan, the healthcare system could be overwhelmed. Estimates of deaths in the first six weeks of the outbreak range from 20,000 up to 710,000, after which the disease would begin to subside. About 20m people could suffer serious breathing problems.
The young would be hit hardest because older people have some immunity left from the Hong Kong flu pandemic of 1968. Officials are looking for sites for mass mortuaries. The global death toll could make the pandemic more serious than the 1918 Spanish flu outbreak, the worst infection since mass statistics have been gathered.
In Britain the virus killed 228,000 people. Worldwide, about 50m died, more than in the first world war.
If bird flu strikes Asia, international travel would virtually cease and health checks would be carried out at every British sea and airport as the government tried to prevent the infection spreading to the UK.
The health department’s strategy calls for infected people, along with anyone with whom they have come into contact, to be quarantined, although under existing laws this could only be voluntary.
Schools would be closed, large public gatherings banned and travel around the country restricted to essential journeys only.
Patricia Hewitt, the health secretary, announced last month that the government intended to buy up to 3m doses of a vaccine that protects against H5N1, the flu strain currently killing chickens and ducks in Asia.
In the event of an outbreak these doses will be given to health staff, key workers needed to keep the country running, and then people most at risk from infection.
However, if a bird flu pandemic strikes, the virus is likely to be an as yet unknown mutation of H5N1, meaning existing vaccines would offer only partial protection.
With the exception of only a few very lethal snakes, banana spiders, and fish toxins, I can't think of anything that deadly out there if there is no allergic reaction.
I've never heard of anything that fast either. I think that is one of the reasons Dog Gone was skeptical.
Remember, the evidence is anecdotal. Assuming the report is based on an actual event, it still does not mean the person died from something he caught while slaughtering a pig.
My guess is that the bacteria in the pigs is completely unrelated to H5N1, because bacteria and viruses are two totally diffferent things. Maybe there is a causal relationship, but I'm merely a layman in these matters.
Same here.
Apparently Strep Suis is very common in pigs, and generally no big deal. Since the outbreak does not seem consistent with what we know about Strep Suis, the suspicion is that the real cause is something else. The presence of Strep Suis could be merely coincidental (assuming it is really there and not just a made up cover story).
The Chinese refusal to share information, including samples, is criminal.
Based on the information available (if correct);
Differential Diagnosis - Ricin
What I'm wondering is if this was a one-time event, or whether these people had been continually slaughtering pigs over a period of days. If so, couldn't it be that they were infected while slaughtering an earlier pig and symptoms began appearing only after they finished the last pig?
Yep.
Something strange is going on. But since the Chinese won't release any info, we really don't have any of the answers we need.
China may be endangering the whole world. Why? Do they have something to hide? Is it to save face?
If you create a vaccine based on the antigenic characteristics of H5N1 then you have a viable vaccine. Antigenic shift or drift will not diminish the efficacy of the vaccine. the vaccine give the immune system a "head start". If you need more information on this subject the CDC have some great references
It is endemic in every porcine population in most if not all countries. and strep suis serotype 2 (of 36 serotypes)is the most virulent and presents high mortality rates.
It's probably a fact that is surprising to the media, however I can assure you the scientific community is well aware of this fact.
That depends on the distribution and readiness of the H5N1 vaccine, or the timely introduction of cross beneficial trivalent vaccines in THIS inoculation season (September 2005)rather than the low efficacy monovalent high-specificity vaccines offered today
Not true strep suis serotype 2 is a HIGHLY virulent pathogen causing septicemia and meningitis in patients, both of which are fatal In the case of the former death can and does result within a few hours, as a result of toxic shock or chronic renal failure.
Both pathogens are endemic to these regions so it's actually natural to assume it could and is both causing separate but concurrent outbreaks
Hmmm... Not to argue, but my understanding is that Strep Suis is "quite common" in pigs (according to Novartis anyway), and that septicemia and meningitis in humans only rarely results from exposure to Strep Suis in pigs.
Prior to the current Chinese outbreak, supposedly only 150 cases had been reported in the entire world literature. Hence my "Never been even remotely this dangerous" comment.
(I haven't had time to personally confirm the low number of cases statistic, but I have checked the Novartis info.)
To: datura; All
I'm getting off the flu threads. There are some things going on in my life that require attention, and I'll be very busy very soon.
All is well with me, but some major changes are imminent. I need to be there for all of them, fully engaged. I apologize if this catches you or anyone up short, or causes any problem. If I had a choice, I'd postpone the changes, but I do not. I don't want to discuss them.
Thanks for working with me, everyone. I appreciate everything we've done together, dear FRiends. Please forgive me for the abrupt departure. God bless and keep you all, and all you hold dear.
FReegards,
Judith Anne
124 posted on 08/07/2005 2:57:33 PM PDT by Judith Anne (Thank you St. Jude for favors granted.)
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