Free Republic

When Mr D wrote this piece five weeks ago it was widely criticized. Now two more authors have joined Colonel Lang in "borrowing" his title:

http://www.counterpunch.org/spinney01062007.html

http://www.goldchronicles.com/

Regardless of where one stands in the analysis, it seems there will be escalation in and around Baghdad shortly. Probably just as big a factor is what happens with Iran. Tehran weather forecast for later this year: Two thousand degrees and partly cloudy.

Stay tuned...

J

Putin just another thug in a cheap suit and bad haircut BUMP!

It appears Colonel Lang has borrowed Mr D's title for his current blog analysis and it is getting bumped around a bit. Absolutely hilarious -- just make sure Mr D doesn't find out they are plagiarizing his title.

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=53680&mesg_id=53680

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/

http://www.tompaine.com/articles/2006/12/18/surging_to_defeat_in_iraq.php

Now that I think back, it does seem Mr Fusion used to mention the Colonel in some of his writings. Wonder when the Congressman and the Hawk will chime in?

Sounds like escalation coming to the big city on the Tigris. Oh my...

J

I think it safe to say the opinions are running about 90% negative toward this piece. I haven't seen this kind of outrage on the board since the late Mr Fusion accused Putin of blowing up those Russian apartment buildings in 1999. They came out of the woodwork then to say he knew not of what he spoke. I think certain elements of criticism on this piece reach for a bridge too far.

The Islamics have multiple hostile nation states surrounding Iraq and it would seem the author offers an idea of grand strategic versus tactical encirclement. One is reminded of the OKW staffers that warned Hitler of the impending Cannae style double envelopment at Stalingrad. These warnings were dismissed due to the German greater mobility and "air superiority" -- any ideas that ran counter to established doctrine were considered ludicrous.

The nature of war is that it is always unpredictable. The weak seek to win with innovation and surprise while the strong desire to control tempo and dictate terms. Mr Jeeves in post #50 outlines a nightmare scenario that has surely crossed the minds of the enemy and could result in disaster.

The American military is the best in the world and those fighting forces must be preserved for the future challenges. The fact remains that the army is far from home with long supply lines. There is absolutely no dishonor in acquitting the field in good order to refit as there is still the greater War on Terror to be won -- where the author once wrote "of which the Battle in Iraq is but one campaign."

The only constant in warfare is that it is always changing and full of surprises.

J

This from today's WDN editorial page. The Stalingrad analogy is timely on many levels to include the long supply lines and difficulty of the urban battle. It would have been interesting if a comparison of von Paulus' request for withdrawal from the kessel and the American generals call for a pull back now had been examined.

Regardless of the decisions made, the status quo unlikely to remain in Iraq. God bless the American military in the difficult days ahead. If there was ever a time for a leader to stand up and rally the mission, this is it.

J

Richardson's campaign has been in touch with the US Justice Department today and will seek a temporary restraining order against the School Board from having him arrested again at this Friday's Northside -- Southside rivalry game.  The School Board has back pedaled today and now states that no General Statute / law was violated but instead his actions were an "infraction" of School Board policies. 

(Richardson is emulating the successful tactic of Senator Richard Burr in handing out campaign literature at high school football games with his platform on one side and referee signals on the other.)

Richardson is a member of the County Commission that was sued by the School Board a few months ago for budgeting "only" a 7 per cent increase in funding instead of the 15 percent the School Board requested.  The subsequent County Commission appeal of the Superior Court verdict against them has frozen funding at the previous year's level until the appeal is heard.

The three School Board members up for reelection are facing strong challenges and are expected to be defeated next week.  In addition the School Board violates its own policy by distributing campaign literature to teacher's mailboxes for candidates that have been endorsed by the teacher's union.

Subpoenas will be issued later in the week and those involved compelled to testify under oath.  In addition Richardson is mulling the possibility of requesting the protection of the Federal Marshal at Friday night's game.  He contends that political speech is the most protected form of free speech and is unlikely to back down.

J

Richardson was arrested earlier this evening at the makeup game for last Friday's rained out contest. His state house seat (NC-6) is considered the swing seat for the entire state legislature in North Carolina and latest polls have him in a dead heat. Should the party fail to rally behind him it will bode ill for the GOP in next week's elections.

Richardson has vowed to return this coming Friday night and continue handing out campaign literature. His argument is that political speech is the most protected speech under the First Amendment.

When candidates for political office are arrested for taking a conservative message to the people then the legitimacy of the entire process comes into question. Richardson is expected to file a formal complaint with the Justice Department tomorrow.

J

With all of Europe enthralled by the World Cup -- in the last summer of the "Old Age" -- there was little reason for the cafe crowd of Banja Luka to take much notice of the American sipping his Bavaria and watching the matches at Tavita. After all, most agreed, he had been coming there for many years in the warm season and was an agreeable sort. If the new Prime Minister consulted with him on political matters that was a bit odd -- but there was an election in October and prices were rising and people were out of work -- and it was whispered, the stranger had extensive hands-on experience in American political machinations.

Like most Americans, when the stranger had a few beers his voice tended to get louder. Those assigned to watch him appreciated this fact and the regular schedule he kept -- it made it easier to compile their reports. However they were puzzled that the American seldom spoke of politics when drinking but instead tended to ramble on about economics. "Why is he always talking about the dollar?" they asked each other. "We spend Euros and KM here."

And although the old communist way of staying within the lines still prevailed to a certain degree in those late stages of the old order, new pressures had recently emerged that meant it was wise to show some initiative in sensitive matters. The New World Order had insisted the police forces of the Federation and The Republic be united and the federal capital kept increasing the pressures on their Slavic brethren for intelligence. One thing led to another and it was decided a new file would be opened.

The new police graduates from the Academy were supposedly beyond approach and temptation. One of the up and comers was seconded to an old hand and thus a new "economic intelligence unit" was formed.

"What do we do?" the youngster asked the old hand. "Thank our respective saints for this assignment and draw some expense money," was the gleeful reply. The old hand knew the game and immediately arranged to have coffee with his former intelligence boss, who since the war had found himself in the Tax Directorate overseeing many important matters.

The tax man nodded sagely upon hearing about the capital's intelligence demands and the subsequent plan. "I have met the American and believe he may have some knowledge on these matters. This could be a tremendous coup for the Republic."

The tax man thought the American an amusing sort and on occasion would take a glass of white wine with him at one of the better restaurants. It was not hard for him to make arrangements for lunch at the Castle with the American a couple days later -- and eventually turn the conversation away from football and women to the fate of the dollar.

"Don't get me talking about economics," the American said, "or I'll ramble on about it all day." Which is exactly what the tax man knew would happen. The file said the American had been in Asia a couple years earlier with one of the multinational banks so surely he would glean a nugget or two. "Why not," the tax man replied, "the bottle is still half full."

"We are going to have a crash," the American said. "It will be worldwide and have much more impact than 1929 -- and it is coming soon. The bad news is there is nothing we can do to stop it -- the good news is that the Republic should sustain this depression better than most of Europe. The very isolation the New World Order wraps around the Republic should act as a barrier when the paper markets crash and the dollar plummets. People here have food, water and wood -- and are tougher than in the rest of Europe."

The tax man asked, "You are serious my friend? Surely this is not possible in the twenty-first century." The American just nodded his head. "I am absolutely certain -- just think back to early last decade and what happened to the Yugoslav Dinar. Now realize the American dollar is leveraged fifty times higher."

That evening the tax man had a very smooth raki with the old hand and the operation was born. After the customary polite argument about whose grandfather had made the best plum brandy, they began to ferment a blend of a different ilk...

The absolute worst move the president could make would be to release more oil from the strategic reserve. The post-Katrina move permitted the longs to cover nicely, but going to the well one more time unlikely to succeed again. Government has no business interfering in the free markets.

Unless of course the markets are not really free -- which of course is what the Islamic entente is banking on with their nonlinear economic assault. Exporting inflation is clever for a while but eventually a debt-based society will be strangled by the ever increasing monetary supply. Best to let oil find its natural level even if it means the dollar gets hammered.

There is going to come a terrible day of economic reckoning in America. The price of crude a daily barometer that even Joe Six-Pack should be able to read despite the best efforts of the short sellers -- as unlike the gold market, oil one where physical delivery takes place all the time.

The Islamic entente a very clever and patient adversary. Ramadan 1426 coming soon to a theater near you!

J

With Ramadan approaching American military forces on the offensive in Iraq and Afghanistan continue to build impressive body counts. Meanwhile American economic forces remain on the strategic defensive in global energy and gold markets.

Whether insurgents or dollars, both inhabit target rich environments as a lot of ammo flying down range.

J

The world drowning in liquidity. Historians will christen October as "The Apogee of the Central Bankers."

Although he ended life on a down-tick (self-inflicted bullet to the head) Jesse Livermore was generally considered one of the sharper market watchers around. His analysis of the 1907 stock market crash ("Panic of '07") focused on the catastrophic effects on all markets of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. His thesis focused on the idea that it was months before the true extent of the damage filtered through the markets and by the time it did the downward spiral could not be halted -- even by Treasury Department intervention in the bond market.

October 24, 1907 -- no buyers, none. By mid-November the Dow had lost 48% from its previous year's high.

The only good news from Hurricane Katrina is that the event acts as the very rare perfect intelligence indicator. If the opposition has the capacity to initiate a spectacular strategic/economic attack then they are forced to launch under Islamic strike doctrine. The exponential force multiplier garnered with Western emergency responses "stretched" to the limit opens the opportunity for a crushing "break" assault.

Under such a scenario oil would zoom to a hundred and the Dow would fall sharply. All this with the Iranian Oil Bourse slated to open in March and begin trading crude in Euros. Under no circumstances can this be permitted.

Then again, if no strike comes during the window of vulnerability it will be a near-certainty that Western intelligence structures have over-quantified the Qaeda threat. A strategic review will then be mandatory -- and many security operations may have to stand down or be eliminated.

Nothing like having a perfect intelligence barometer with a high-pressure system tracking west...

Thus with oil ready to charge north once more, the stock market entering its most vulnerable month and Ramadan right around the corner -- the stage is set for more intense pressure on the dollar. Then again, its not like many billions more can't be created with a few keystrokes...

J

The new storm has knocked the legs out from the administration's efforts to intervene in the free market with releases ("loans") from the reserve. With the longs thus covered, the next spike should surge the price past $80 by the end of the year.

Debased paper dollars cannot stand toe to toe with crude oil in the merciless world of the free market -- where excess monetary liquidity will always be punished in the form of higher prices. Crude will continue to crush the dollar as October becomes a month for the whole world to remember for a very long time.

J

The storm has caught those in charge by surprise. Mr Fusion often quoted General Erfurth on how surprise has decided more close battles than any other element in history. From an economic perspective this event will have greater impact than 9/11 while producing similar societal aftershocks.

It is a defining moment.

Meanwhile the opposition watches as the perfect economic storm continues to brew. I will renew my search for Mr Fusion's classic treatise on the Eastern "stretch and break attack." Seldom have conditions seemed so ideal for that type of maneuver. No doubt Entente strategists are weighing this option.

Government intervention in the free markets is a risky proposition. There are always unexpected residual effects. Should the opposition successfully divine the next intervention -- and act accordingly -- then the house of cards will come down at a more rapid rate than currently sustained.

J

When the smoke clears from this storm the historians will use 20/20 hindsight to sabre without mercy those in charge. The decision to release the strategic reserve is a very hard move to make, sort of like calling a raise on the turn with only a draw. It does nothing to increase gasoline supply and throws an accelerant into the crude markets once the damn breaks.

All summer the skeptics scoffed at the so called "risk premium" in crude. There was a reason speculators were willing to unload massive volumes of dollars for the right to own oil. The release of reserves will stem the tide but ultimately the free market will reign in America until just before the end. Oil has no theoretical top at this time...

The West has never been more vulnerable...

J

While the American military crushes opposition around the world, Qaeda continues to concentrate strength on the Western oil jugular. One fights a 20th century battle ("the last war") focused on killing humans while the other initiates a 21st century style engagement ("postmodern Sherman") designed to collapse economic infrastructure.

An interesting match up of style and theory as Howard Cosell used to say.

J

Excellent reply to the number one "statement of fact" on these oil threads. Joe Six-Pack doesn't give a bleep about what the price of gasoline was in 1981 or how long the lines were in 1973. He is struggling now and slowly beginning to sense something is very, very wrong.

For many affluent Americans the price of gasoline is a minor inconvenience. However with a shrinking middle class being constantly squeezed on all fronts, for many younger Americans it is becoming a matter of desperation.

And if they are part of the real estate sheep (last buyers)every raise in the fancy high-tech ARM they hold is magnified when their discretionary income is reduced with high gas prices.

These prices for the September contract. That gasoline yet to be priced at the pump. "The Guns of August"... "The Missiles of October"... "The ****s of September"...

Yes, every thread has a half dozen "adjusted for inflation not a record posts." Hopefully that is not the administration line when the president has to go on national television to calm Joe and Jane Six-Pack. If it is the GOP is going to be laughed right out of the 06 elections.

J

The myth of western invincibility being shattered in the oil trading pits this week.

This upward momentum on prices cannot be halted by the administration without radical protectionist action that would destroy confidence in all the markets -- on the other hand Qaeda can continue to manipulate these prices north with the goal of weakening western economies.

Any opposition strike on oil facilities now would be a disaster. Such an event could indeed take oil to $100 before year's end.

J

Joe Six-Pack can cry every conspiracy theory in the book but his lament cannot refute the basic laws of commodity supply and demand. When demand swamps supply the price will rise -- when the currency is debased by the federal government this process will be accelerated.

When the opposition in the Third World War produces said commodity, they will use it as a weapon. The dollar, and the West, suffering a nonlinear assault far more dangerous than a few suicide bombers.

Suicide bombers can't beat the West. Oil can.

J

The Iranian oil bourse is scheduled to open in March 2006 and will compete with London and New York for the international oil trade. Should the petroeuro be established as an alternative oil transaction currency, then the dollar's reign as the oil currency of choice/necessity will be threatened.

Americans get a rather considerable free ride by having the dollar as the world's central reserve currency. That is one brick that cannot come out of the wall.

Going to war with Iran is a very tough call. Clearing the Straits of Sunburn missiles, eliminating Tehran's nuclear program and drying up jihadist infiltration into Iraq would be a nice bonus while defending the dollar's role as the central reserve currency. When Saddam started selling oil for Euros he sealed his fate, so we know the precedent.

Part of the difficulty rests in Iran's immense capacity to strike at the West around the world. Tehran's intelligence capacity far exceeds Baghdad's prewar ability as is seen with the mounting American casualties in Iraq. Should the Iranian government survive a tactical nuclear first strike by America, then the West will take hits around the globe for a long time.

Then again, if the Islamic Entente succeeds in collapsing the Western economic structure (and it is very fragile now) they indeed may have launched their own successful first strike. Difficult decisions ahead for DC on many fronts, however they cannot permit oil to be sold for Euros in Tehran.

With next year's oil bourse opening, Tehran now controls the tempo and has found the round table...

J

A good discussion that includes the realpolitik of the coming war with Iran. Tehran plans next year to begin selling oil in Euros which cannot be permitted. When crude hits $75, the option of buying it for 60 Euros weakens the dollar's long term role as the world's central reserve currency.

And that hurts if dollars are the currency of choice you enjoy each day in the life.

This type of discourse is difficult for Joe Six-Pack to understand even as gasoline prices approach three dollars a gallon. However nuclear weapons, long range missiles and uranium processing rings a bell with him.

DING! DING! DING!

Can you say Osirak 05?

J

Seem to be a lot of refinery shutdowns these days. As a wise man once said, "It's hot out there -- and the weather is warm too..."

The endless supply of dollars flooding the world markets simply means that while last week 42 of the pieces of paper wampum could be exchanged for a barrel of oil, this week will require a few more.

The entire economic structure of the West being slowly melted before our very eyes.

J