Free Republic

“I guess I’m a non-believer.”

Perhaps you hold a different belief, but are still a believer in that.

We just don’t know the future, so we should anticipate a range of possibilities.

“I am confident that once President Trump gets classified intel briefs on the war, he will do the right thing.”

That is my hope, and it is my base case assessment, although I have some worry about it.

Another factor could be negotiating strategy (Art of the Deal). Six or seven more months of high intensity losses will be bringing Russia closer to the limits of their old Soviet arsenals and financial resources. Time works against Russia’s strength in their negotiating position. Next year, Russia may start having to roll back their maximalist demands, and Trump might see an opportunity to drive a hard bargain.

Getting Russia into negotiations however, could possibly help restrain escalation to nuclear use, as the bleed out of their Conventional capability becomes more and more critical for them. Starting negotiations may be a critical policy priority for the next Administration - a vital safety measure for managing and influencing predictable phases of the war, yet to come (Russian Military culmination, and ensuing Russian domestic crises).

“What are your thoughts on Trump saying he’ll more or less force UKR to surrender or lose US military aid?”

Also, I remember the Left using similar characterizations (mischaracterizations) as a campaign issue against Conservative Giorgia Meloni in Italy - but she has been rock solid in supporting Ukraine Militarily since winning the election.

Similar to how the Left and Leftist media accuse Republicans of wanting to put Black people back in chains, etc..

“What are your thoughts on Trump saying he’ll more or less force UKR to surrender or lose US military aid?”

I believe that it is more a matter of surrogates (like General Kellogg) floating trial balloons (I believe he said “agree to negotiations”, rather than surrender), or opponents accusing Trump of saying such things, rather than it being something that Trump actually said. I have not seen a direct quote that commits him to a definite course of action.

That being said, throwing Ukrainians in occupied parts of the country to the wolves, is not something that I would want to see happen. It is my only reservation about Trump, but I am not convinced that he is committed to such a course of action - he may be posturing for the election, while retaining freedom of action. He did support this year’s $61 Billion Military aid package, when push came to shove.

Video of falling fragments on Crimean Beach, 23 June:

https://x.com/Archer83Able/status/1805581567491760388

Russia continues to dig deeper into their domestic oil industry and the population’s standard of living, to pay Putin’s war bills.

OilPrice.com reports:

“In a significant rebound, Russia’s oil and gas revenues for June are projected to increase by over 50% year-on-year, reaching $9.4 billion, according to new Reuters calculations. This surge comes after a reduction in refinery subsidies”...

(How much of the revenue increase came from reducing their domestic subsidies, is not stated. Effectively, that is an additional tax on Russian consumers and refiners)

...”The projected increase in June revenues, up from 794 billion rubles in May and 529 billion rubles in June 2023”...

(note that the 50% year over year increase is in rubles, not dollars)

“The Finance Ministry’s anticipated report on July 3 will provide detailed insights into these financial trends. The 2024 federal budget anticipates oil and gas revenues to rise by 21% from 2023, following a year marked by lower oil prices and reduced gas exports.

Despite the economic strains, Russia has continued to sustain its defense expenditures, resulting in consecutive annual budget deficits of over 3 trillion rubles, approximately 2% of GDP. These deficits have been managed through internal borrowing and (cashing out) the National Wealth Fund.

(They have also been covering their exploding war costs by taxing the oil industry to the point of effective nationalization. Now they are removing some of the subsidies that kept energy prices low for their domestic users, and broader tax increases are reportedly on the way, now that the oil industry has already been squeezed for what it is worth)

President Vladimir Putin has emphasized the country’s economic growth, which stood at 3.6% in 2023 after a 1.2% contraction in 2022. However, local economists caution that this growth is driven largely by increased production in the defense sector, which offers limited benefits to the broader population.

(Beyond just a surge in non-productive Government Defense spending, Russia is also employing communist Chinese-style real estate market schemes, to pump up GDP in the short term, as well as expanding their money supply printing rubles)

As Russia navigates its economic challenges, the resilience of its oil and gas sector remains a critical factor in its financial stability.”

(Russia fundamentally remains a one crop economy - oil. Natural gas is not coming back to what it was)

“The first shipment of ammunition under the Czech initiative has already arrived in Ukraine”

The Czechs have maintained pretty good Operational Security in their public statements on their Artillery ammo supply program for Ukraine.

By other reports, the Czech program ammo has been flowing for some time now, and has already been contributing to improved Ukrainian battlefield success.

Czechia has punched above it weight with this Program, making an outsized contribution to the war effort. They got the right stuff, at the right time, to make the most bang for the buck of the money they raised.

Just by itself, that Program would cover a few months of the Ukrainians use. But as a supplement to the Multi-National effort, it came at a key time of shortage, and boosts overall supply into reasonably strong rate to counter the threat.

Hat’s off to Czechs! Job well done. Came through when times were hard.

The International Criminal Court in The Hague issued arrest warrants today for Shoigu and Gerasimov, over targeting of civilian objects (energy infrastructure).

Ukraine and Moldova began their formal accession negotiations with the EU today in Luxembourg.

Although actual joining is still likely to take a few years (maybe 5), it is a major step in the process, that required formal approval from the European Union first.

I believe this will include War Crimes trials at the Hague for Russian war criminals (like Putin, for example) - as well as more ammo!

“Zelensky to sign EU-Ukraine security agreement in Brussels this week”

Kyiv Independent reports:

“President Volodymyr Zelensky will attend the European Union summit in Brussels on June 27 and sign a security agreement with the EU, Polish media RMF reported on June 24, citing an unnamed senior EU diplomat...

...The EU is expected to join 17 countries, including the U.S., Japan, U.K., Germany, and France, that have signed similar bilateral treaties to help Kyiv repel Russia’s aggression...

...The future security agreement between Ukraine and the EU consists of two parts, RMF said.

The first is related to security and defense, including “nine specific commitments:” modern equipment supply for Ukraine, Ukrainian personnel training, demining, support of Ukraine for nuclear and cyber security, among others.

The second part deals with civilian aspects, primarily Ukraine’s prospect of EU membership.

“This is the best security guarantee the EU can offer Ukraine,” the source told RMF.

The document also includes a pledge to protect Ukrainian refugees, prosecute those responsible for war crimes, continue to impose sanctions on Russia, use frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine, in particular, its reconstruction and economy.”

Ukraine’s Tech Hub Develops AI-Driven Drone Swarms to Combat Russian Forces.

Ukraine is about to deploy an AI-powered drone swarm that can work together to destroy Russian tanks and gather intelligence.

Kyiv Post reports:

“A Ukrainian startup says it’s on the brink of revolutionizing warfare with an AI-driven drone swarm capable of coordinated attacks on enemy tanks and intelligence gathering, potentially giving Ukraine a significant advantage in its war with Russia, as per The Times’ report.

“It’s the equivalent of bringing the steam engine into the factory all those years ago,” said Serhii Kuprienko, the founder of the startup. “Our core mission is to get robots to do the fighting, not humans.”

These drones can communicate with each other, make decisions on where to attack, and gather intelligence “faster than any human could,” Kuprienko said.

The Times reported that before the full-scale war, Ukraine had around 20 military tech companies; now, there are 200. Many are focused on drone technology, which is expected to redefine future warfare...

Deputy Minister of Digital Transformation, Alex Bornyakov, said that Ukraine is testing swarm technology with at least one company besides Krupiienko’s. He said that while the drones are capable of operating autonomously, human confirmation is required for targeting to ensure ethical and safety standards are met.

“Technically, they [the drones] could do it by themselves,” he added.

Kuprienko said that his drones could be programmed to recognize and shoot based on uniforms. However, he said, “We don’t allow it ethically and for safety purposes.”

American expert Singer suggests that Ukraine may have already used AI to autonomously destroy targets. He mentions a sophisticated American drone system that identifies enemy vehicles, even if camouflaged, and coordinates automatic strikes.

Singer recalled politicians assuring that this was a line they would never cross but added that it has now been crossed with little controversy.

The ethical debate over autonomous weapons continues among military experts, lawyers, and ethicists, as outlined in the report. Kuprienko repeats the official stance that a human commander must approve each attack. However, he concedes that some commanders might prefer full autonomy to maximize the swarm’s effectiveness, adding “We’re fighting a war here, and we want to win.”

Like Bornyakov, he envisions a “kill box”—an area containing only enemy targets—where a swarm could operate independently.

As Ukraine pushes the boundaries of military technology, the world watches closely, aware that this innovation could reshape the landscape of modern warfare.”

“Ukrainian forces successfully struck the Russian NIP-16 space tracking and communication center in Vitino, Crimea” (near Yevpatoria)

Kyiv Independent reports:

“Explosions were reported in Yevpatoria in occupied Crimea around 10 p.m. on June 23, according to the news outlet Suspilne Crimea, which cited residents.

One resident described hearing two powerful explosions that shook the windows, as well as the sound of sirens throughout the city, Suspilne Crimea reported.

Yevpatoria is a resort city in western Crimea, located north of Sevastopol.”

Newsweek reported a previous strike on 22 Dec 2023:

“Ukraine struck Russia’s Center for Long-Range Space Communications in the village of Vitino in the Saky region using Storm Shadow missiles…

…”Full name of the center: 40th separate command and measuring complex as part of the Main Test Space Center named after G. S. Titov of the Aerospace Forces of the Russian Federation,” ASTRA said.

The center is one of three complexes that make up Russia’s Yevpatoria Center for Deep Space Communications, which supports manned and robotic space missions.”

“The idea of small mobile long range air defense (offense) system”

FtrPilot expressed interest in that, earlier in the war. He wanted to know if PATRIOT launchers could be forward deployed, far from their radars, for just such an ambush (without exposing the radar to additional threat).

We will have to see what can be done in practice, but it is a good idea.

Looks like a Teleport - earth station for Satellite Communcations.

“the oldest (SP) and least wanted artillery of the war (the early 2S1s) now hitting the north front…

…this is the last system they have in storage in any real number!!!…

…its going to be a short life for them.”

This post raises an interesting point about the attrition of the old Soviet stocks.

“its going to be a short life for them.” (The old stuff)

As the quality declines, the rate of attrition likely speeds up, as they are increasingly over matched.

“is feasible or practical to build patriot or nasam launchers in one or two missile configuration, say mounted in a truck to camouflage what they are?”

Yes, it is technically feasible to box them up, to look like regular shipping containers and mount them on regular trucks, but it would not be cheap or easy. This is being done with Intermediate Range (deep strike) Artillery weapons and cruise missiles (the Chinese do it too), but I have not heard of Air Defense missiles being configured like that yet.

“Epic long range missile fire from tonight”

Send more! Send more!

So much that needs killing…

“I guess that most officers today would be shocked to learn”...

...that back then the Army & Air Force Exchange Service operated massage parlors on Military Bases in Korea.

Brent back up to $85, India’s Oil Imports Surge, Russian crude shipments were up for May.

No O Club is as good as they were in the 70s.

Times have changed.