NASA Should Lead More Focused Program to Reduce Threat from Hazardous Asteroids

spaceref.com ^ | 5 Feb 03 | NOAO

[RightWhale]

NASA Should Lead More Focused Program to Reduce Threat from Hazardous Asteroids

National Optical Astronomy Observatory

NASA should be assigned to lead a new research program to better determine the population and physical diversity of near-Earth objects that may collide with our planet, down to a size of 200 meters, according to the final report of a workshop on the scientific requirements for the mitigation of hazardous comets and asteroids. The workshop’s report also recommends that the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) work to more rapidly communicate surveillance data on natural airbursts of smaller rocky bodies, and it concludes that governmental policy makers must "formulate a chain of responsibility" to be better prepared in the event that a threat to Earth becomes known.

“As our discussions proceeded, it became clear that the prime impediment to further advances in this field is the lack of assigned responsibility to any national or international governmental organization,” said planetary scientist Michael Belton, organizer of the September 2002 workshop. “Since it is part of NASA’s newly stated mission to ‘understand and protect our home planet,’ it seems obvious that this responsibility should reside in NASA.” Belton presented the findings of the workshop today in Washington, DC, to officials at NASA, the National Science Foundation, and the Office of Management and Budget, and the report was delivered to the U.S. Congress. About 2,225 near-Earth objects (NEOs) have been detected, primarily by ground-based optical searches, in the size range between 10 meters and 30 kilometers, out of a total estimated population of about one million; some information about the physical size and composition of these NEOs is available for only 300 objects. The total number of objects a kilometer in diameter or larger, a size that could cause global catastrophe upon Earth impact, is now estimated to range between 900 and 1,230. The NASA-led Spaceguard Survey has a congressional mandate to detect 90% of these kilometer-sized objects by 2008, and it is making “excellent progress” on this goal, the report says.

However, a full survey of objects that could cause significant damage on Earth should reach down to NEOs at least as small as 200 meters, the report says, which should be within the capability of proposed ground-based facilities such as the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope and the PanStarrs telescope system. Ground-based radar systems will remain a “critical contributor” to obtaining the most accurate possible data on the orbits of many hazardous objects, the report says. The workshop report discusses a preliminary roadmap based on five themes: more complete and accurate surveys of the orbits of potentially hazardous objects; improved public education about the risk; characterizing the physical properties of a range of asteroids and comets; more extensive laboratory research; and initial physical experiments toward a realistic plan to intercept and divert a future incoming object.

In order to keep maximum annual expenses on the order of a typical spacecraft mission (approximately $300 million), the report estimates that it would take about 25 years to accomplish this roadmap.

[RightWhale]

There is some thought of beginning to study what to do. Something ought to be done besides making neat lists of space objects that might wipe out earth. Leave compiling neat list to the Euros, they seem to enjoy that. Let NASA take action, it's the American way.

[John H K]

For some reason people like to make fun of asteroid defense, though.

Mainly because it's never happened in recorded human history. But human history is pretty damn short.

Even the most fanatical small-government proponent would have to concede that one valid function of government is to do what it can to prevent civilization from ending.

There's a tiny chance of that but it's so bad it's worth devoting some money to.

[cogitator]

Related editorial (with the same article, which obviously got me thinking along the same lines as you):

Now is the time for "Spaceguard"

[RightWhale]

human history is pretty damn short

Yes, it is. One might wonder why that is so, if there might be an external reason or if people essentially the same as us for 100,000 years didn't happen to think of keeping a diary until 6000 years ago.

Why is human history so short?

Did something happen back then?

[cogitator]

Mainly because it's never happened in recorded human history.

That's incorrect, and I only say that to correct a factual error, not to disagree with you. The Tunguska impact happened in 1908, and there have been some large airbursts recorded by satellites (and some ground video) since then. In 1997, a large meteor passed over (and may have landed on) Greenland.

Greenland Meteor

Meteor impact Greenland? (loads of links; note that the dark cloud shown in some of the satellite images probably wasn't related to the impact)

I looked and looked and finally found a page with a still from the surveillance video (below). The image of the incoming meteor is seen as bright trail reflected on the roof of the car in the image.

Greenland Meteorite

[RightWhale]

What asteroids can do to ruin your day, another thread.

[discostu]

I think we were too busy. From what we do know of life before recorded history it really sucked and was oriented towards subsistence survival. Not much to record: "bad hunt today, children starve. Good hunt today, less children starve". It wasn't until we started pushing the technological envelope and actually managed to invent liesure time that people started writing stuff down. Of course the birth of beauracracy also has a lot to do with it, that's why we know so much about Rome and so little about colinear societies, Rome wrote down everything.

[RightWhale]

There are indications that towns and maybe small cities existed at the end of the last Ice Age. These were all located in coastal areas that suddenly got flooded out at various times roughtly 10,000 years ago. Who is to say how long these villages and town existed before they were washed away? Maybe a long time. That is where records would have been kept; a lone tribe in the forest wouldn't do well in the permanent record-keeping department.

[discostu]

But of course paper doesn't last. Some guy on the History Channel once made a comment about Babylon being a society of paper and Egypt being a society of stone. If places got flooded away whatever records there were are probably gone, you see that even now; small towns die and nobody cares anymore and the place is functionally erased from history.

[RightWhale]

If the records consisted mainly of scratches on sheets of treebark, a general flood probably wouldn't do much to preserve the record.

[discostu]

Right, unless a society is into carving stone like Egypt or Maya their record can evaporate very quickly. Also remember most historical records are an accident, most people don't really spend much time making sure their society and time are properly recorded in history, they just do their thing and if their diary or shipping orders gets found 500 years later well there they are. We've kind of gotten into time capsules in recent decades, but I wonder just how useful those really will turn out to be. I remember in the late 70s the TV Guide was really popular to put in time capsules, but the real world was never like 3's Company or Charlie's Angels, now Married with Children that could give future historians a pretty solid depiction of American life but that came later.

[SunkenCiv]

Note: this topic is from 2/05/2003. Thanks RightWhale.

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