Latin America's Political Compass Veers Toward the Left

NY Times ^ | 01-19-03 | juan forero

[em2vn]

Latin America's Political Compass Veers Toward the Left

January 19, 2003 By JUAN FORERO

BOGOTA, Colombia, Jan. 18 - Latin America's four most visible left-leaning heads of state came together for the first time this week at the inauguration of one of them as president of Ecuador.

Ecuador's new leader, Lucio Gutierrez, is a former army colonel and coup plotter who has promised to fight the "corrupt oligarchy" in his country. The others are Luiz Inßcio Lula da Silva, a former union leader elected to the Brazilian presidency in October; Fidel Castro of Cuba, the grand old man of the Latin American left; and Venezuela's embattled president, Hugo Chßvez.

The four basked in applause at Ecuador's cavernous Congress on Wednesday and held meetings to discuss the future of a troubled region.

To some in Washington, particularly conservatives on Capitol Hill, the convergence of leftist leaders - all of whom, at some point, have used antagonistic words in criticizing United States policy - has raised concerns about a new pan-Latin American movement with socialist overtones.

Indeed, Representative Henry J. Hyde, Republican of Illinois and the chairman of the House International Relations Committee, warned late last year that Brazil's new president might join Mr. Chßvez and Mr. Castro in a Latin "axis of evil." Mr. Hyde also characterized Mr. da Silva as a dangerous "pro-Castro radical who for electoral purposes had posed as a moderate."

It is true that all four leaders share similarities: opposition to the unfettered market reforms that have failed so far to bring prosperity to Latin America, concern about the burdensome foreign debts that stagger many nations in the region and wariness about the United States meddling in their affairs.

Invigorated by Mr. da Silva's victory in Brazil - the first election of a leftist president in the largest Latin American country - the four leaders see an opportunity to shape events in the region, rather than leave it to the United States to set the agenda.

Brazil has already exerted its influence, with Mr. da Silva becoming the driving force behind a "group of friendly nations," including the United States, that is offering to help Venezuela negotiate an end to a seven-week-old national strike aimed at forcing Mr. Chßvez from power. The Venezuelan leader has welcomed the initiative, flying on Friday to meet in Brazil with Mr. da Silva to discuss ways to resolve the crisis.

"There's no question that these four nations are going to form an axis of populism, or an axis of popular rhetoric," said Larry Birns, director of the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, a Washington-based policy analysis group.

But Mr. Birns and other analysts who track political trends in Latin America said that while the four leaders might, on the surface, show a united front, they were four very different men who would pursue different agendas with markedly different approaches.

Mr. da Silva, 57, who grew up in poverty, became a factory worker and helped found the Workers Party, won a loyal following as a leftist firebrand who railed against everything from international lending policies to the incompetence and corruption of Brazil's elite class.

But after losing three presidential elections, he moderated his tone, promising that Brazil would pay its foreign debt while still trying to enact social policies to alleviate poverty and hunger.

While still raising concerns about such important issues as the hemisphere-wide trade zone proposed by Washington, Mr. da Silva has worked to build ties with the Bush administration. "I can count on President Bush as an ally," he has said.

Miguel Diaz, director of the South America Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said of Mr. da Silva, "He wants the U.S. to be a part of the solution, and doesn't see the U.S. as part of the problem."

That is not to say that Mr. da Silva plans to abandon his campaign against poverty and hunger. His Workers Party, an amalgam of divergent leftist movements, expects Mr. da Silva to address seriously Brazil's grinding inequality. Mr. da Silva has promised to improve the lives of his countrymen, pledging that all Brazilians would receive three meals a day.

But the pursuit of his social agenda will be difficult in a country saddled with a huge foreign debt and international commitments to foreign lenders. It is a challenge both he and Mr. Gutierrez face: carrying out the far-reaching social programs they promised on the campaign trail last year while dealing with serious financial constraints in difficult economic times.

Mr. da Silva appears acutely aware of how important it is for him to provide successful guidance for Brazil, a country of 175 million that has one of the world's largest economies and is a budding power broker.

Mr. Gutierrez, 45, a former colonel and son of a riverboat captain, shares many of Mr. da Silva's qualities, according to international analysts who have met the new Ecuadorian leader.

[em2vn]

Enemies to the north, enemies to the south. We will take them one at a time or in mass.

[smith288]

of course they are leaning left....the right wants them to work for a living. whats up wid dat?

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Brazil has always been a failure. Always will be.

[Free the USA]

http://www.freerepublic.com/perl/bump-list

[bandleader]

They must have a Public School system like ours!The old USSR is no more.Socialism is a failed ideology that only survives by the applications of force and fear!!

[Man of the Right]

This problem is self-correcting. Any country can elect a communist if they're willing to share Cuba's fate. These countries become dangerous only if they are subsidized by a hostile world power with a bottomless purse.

If Bush has a second term, he will devote some attention on Venezuela if Chavez is still in power.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Trouble is, Communists and their structure are hard to get rid of after they gain power. The only Communist to put his rule up for a vote was Danny Ortega and he got whipped.

[Man of the Right]

I criticize Bush and Powell for not having a strong Dep Sec State for Inter-American Affairs who can handle the matter while the big boys are focused elsewhere.

However, unless China grows into a world power, there's no way to consolidate a communist revolution. Even then controlling a third-world country is no longer strategic. Ortega took power and immediately went to Moscow expecting he'd get the same blank check Castro got in 1960. The Russians said congratulations and good luck, but you're on your own. Accordingly, the Sandinistas never consolidated power. When we got a President with some backbone, a shoe-string operation knocked them off.

Communism is a great way to gain and hold power. The problem is the economy collapses, so you need unlimited foreign financial and military support. You need weapons and people who know how to use them to hold off the U.S.

Venezuela is a threat because they have oil revenues. However, the oil industry will collapse rapidly under communist mismanagement. To keep wells going, you need technical expertise, spare parts, technicians, money, and markets.

Elections are Chavez's Achille heel. If a free election was held, he'd lose. If the Daley organization was counting votes, he'd still lose. If he prevents the next election, he will give the U.S. the necessary pretext to overthrow him. The Venezuelan military is not going to fight the U.S. They're with us. If they're weren't, they have no alternative source of spare parts, munitions, and weapons. You don't take on the U.S. without a superpower in your corner. Unfortunately for Chavez, the only superpower is the U.S.

For those reasons communism is a dead end for a country that wants to commit national suicide.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

With LINKS to Hugo's systematic tightening of his control over Venezuela - Venezuela Strike Falters as Banks Lift Protest - Has Democracy Failed?*** CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Venezuelan private banks decided Wednesday to restore normal working hours, opening another crack in a faltering eight-week-old opposition strike against President Hugo Chavez. But striking oil workers were maintaining their shutdown, which has rattled global energy markets by slashing oil output in the world's No. 5 petroleum exporter. Private banks, which make up nearly 90 percent of the Venezuelan financial sector, had been operating for limited daily hours since December in support of the strike launched on Dec. 2 to pressure leftist Chavez from office. "The National Banking Council and the Venezuelan Banking Association decided at a meeting by a two-thirds vote to restart normal operating hours from Monday," association president Ignacio Salvatierra told reporters. The two associations represent most financial institutions.

As the strike nears the two month mark, backing for the protest in non-oil sectors has begun to fray as private businesses, restaurants and stores reopen to fend off bankruptcy. Opposition leaders, who brand former paratrooper Chavez's rule as dictatorial and corrupt, offered on Tuesday to ease their strike by exempting food production and education. But they say the protest will continue until Chavez accepts immediate elections. Chavez is due to step down at the start of 2007. ***