Unusual Variables in November Elections

I have been trying to keep track of all of the legal curiosities that will affect us this November, and thought it would make an interesting post.

When Tallant wins in MO, Republicans will have a majority as of November 6th as he takesover Mr. Carnahans term and regardless of what happens in other races, will have the majority until January, even if Mondale wins in MN.

Mary Landrieu MUST win 50% of the vote (against 3 Reps) to avoid a run off in LA, so the true make up of the next Senate will probably not be determined 'til December.

Lawsuits are already being filed on behalf of military and absente voters in MN and NJ.

Regardless of who wins, as of Nov. 8th, Mary Frances Gary Coleman Mugabe Berry, will end her term on the Civil Rights Commission. And there was much rejoicing

Ashcroft has shown that he is taking the sanctity of the ballot box seriously, with skirmishes in SD, and watchers in FL (with 18 voting machines missing in Broward Co., and information coming out every day re: irregularities in Detroit, St. Louis and PA.

Given these circumstances, what is the best and worst possible outcomes for Republicans?

I have been trying to keep track of all of the legal curiosities that will affect us this November, and thought it would make an interesting post.

No. The GOP never had a majority. We had a tie. The Dems had a majority of two. Before Wellstone's death, it was 50-49-1. Now, it's 49-49-1. Cheney's vote doesn't count. The Dems still rule us 50-49. The only significance (and it is significant) is that the Dems needed Wellstone to pass their version of Homeland Security (because Miller went with the GOP).

When Tallant (Talent) wins in MO, Republicans will have a majority as of November 6th as he takesover Mr. Carnahans term and regardless of what happens in other races, will have the majority until January, even if Mondale wins in MN.

That is true. The GOP will be at 50-49-1, with Cheney bringing us to 51.

Mary Landrieu MUST win 50% of the vote (against 3 Reps) to avoid a run off in LA, so the true make up of the next Senate will probably not be determined 'til December.

Yep.

Lawsuits are already being filed on behalf of military and absente voters in MN and NJ.

Regardless of who wins, as of Nov. 8th, Mary Frances Gary Coleman Mugabe Berry, will end her term on the Civil Rights Commission. And there was much rejoicing

At least one Supreme Court Justice is making noise about retirement.

Given these circumstances, what is the best and worst possible outcomes for Republicans?

There are only two possible outcomes. We either win the Senate or we don't. We only need to net gain one seat to win the Senate. The GOP has several senators who could lose, which makes the GOP winning the Senate an unlikely scenario. The Dems only have to break even-- that's always easier.

With the death of Wellstone, Dems and Reps are equally represented in the Senate until election day, with Cheney casting any tiebreaking vote, therefore,if any special session is called, the current makeup of all committees should revert to pre-Jumpin'Jim Jeffords make-up. (Correct?)

Ventura is going to nominate a nominal Democrat for any special session. This will be someone who is not going to run for the office. So its debatable even if Coleman wins, who will have that seat until January. Ive heard it both ways.

If Talent wins and is certified by the Dem governor (not a sure thing, the law is vague according to the Dems), then senate would be 50-50 because Jeffords caucases with the Dems. What that means is chaos. Dascle would continue to claim majority leader and if Cheney is allowed to break tie (not sure he is) then Republicans could get majority leader but there is no way the committees are going to be headed by Republican chairmen. The Senate has to vote on a reorganization plan and you have to have a quorum to vote on it. If the Dems dont participate, there is no quorom. Additionally, I think any one Senator can hold it up by a filibuster which requires 60 votes, not 51 to proceed. I dont see much coming out of special session.

You both have given a fine summary. I have only a little to add, hopefully it is insightful.

On another thread this morning, Ventura was quoted on a radio interview saying he probably would appoint an independent or non-political normal citizen as Appointed Senator to replace Wellstone. I think the event last night was so partisanly distasteful that he felt b*tch-slapped to do something.

Now, as I understand Minnisota Law references elsewhere, that appointee will only serve until the winner of the Nov 5 election is certified.

So, in my opinion, a Talent victory in my state is only fulfilled in a leadership change during the lame duck period if Coleman wins in Minnisota.

Thankfully, the normal citizen and independent voter of Minnisota may feel overlooked by the Democratic Party Coranation/Memorial Process last night and feel like the candidate that has acutally stood before the voters, lo these many months, deserves fair treatment and their vote on Tuesday.

Your assumptions at #6 are like mine were until "mongrel" pointed out to me:

Here's Minnesota law: "Subd. 12. Succession by regularly elected senator. An individual who is elected to the office of United States senator for a regular six-year term when the office is vacant or is filled by an individual appointed pursuant to subdivision 11, shall also succeed to the office for the remainder of the unexpired term."
No matter if it's a general election or a special election, it is clear that whoever is elected will fill out the rest of this term.

Your assumptions at #6 are like mine were until "mongrel" pointed out to me:

Here's Minnesota law: "Subd. 12. Succession by regularly elected senator. An individual who is elected to the office of United States senator for a regular six-year term when the office is vacant or is filled by an individual appointed pursuant to subdivision 11, shall also succeed to the office for the remainder of the unexpired term."
No matter if it's a general election or a special election, it is clear that whoever is elected will fill out the rest of this term.

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