Posted on 07/15/2002 10:28:18 AM PDT by gordgekko
Maybe I am totally off base, and probably I should keep my views to myself, but I sense a Democratic victory in Congress in the making. It is true that President George W. Bush still has sky high ratings among the electorate. They see him as someone who thinks like they do. No matter what issues the Democrats throw at the President, nothing sticks to him. They used to call Ronald Reagan the Teflon President, but if Bush continues these ratings into 2004, he will do Reagan one better.
The Bush ratings do not apply to his party, however. In fact, several recent polls find that while the average voter believes that Bush is on the side of the average voter, Republicans in general are seen as being more interested in the welfare of corporate bigwigs. If Democrat strategists are able to take advantage of this voter perception they will hold on to the Senate, but will win control of the House as well. Republican strategists already concede gains in the gubernatorial realm. They are defending many more state houses than the Democrats.
One of the problems for Republicans in Congress is that grass roots conservatives don't feel that the party is willing to raise issues they care about. The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals' decision removing God from the pledge of allegiance and a New York federal judge's decision to release a terrorist are good arguments for confirming President Bush judicial nominees. It is unclear if the party is willing to make this a burning issue because the judge who wrote the pledge opinion was a Republican appointee. If the judiciary becomes a really credible issue, it does have the opportunity to arouse some voters.
One issue that would really stir the grass roots is immigration. Look at what has happened in Western Europe. Eleven of 14 Members of the European Economic Community now have right of center governments. And it is possible that total will be 12 this fall if German voters go the way the polls are now suggesting. Immigration was one of the key issues that brought those right of center governments to power. Even the Dutch government intends to curb the liberal lifestyle in that country. The problem is that President Bush has a fundamental disagreement with Representative Tom Tancredo (R-CO) whose views on immigration resonate well with the grass roots. So immigration will not be made an issue by the Republican Party or if it is it will be in the form of President Bush's outreach to the Hispanic community.
Another issue that stirs the grass roots is the Boy Scout issue. The Boy Scouts have lost millions and have also lost the right to use many public facilities because they refuse to permit homosexual scout masters. The grass roots are all with the Scouts. The party could win seats in the South, Midwest and even Southwest if the party made this an issue. But it is unlikely the party will raise this issue because the Bush Administration has made an outreach to the homosexual community. Just recently, the president signed a bill providing some benefits to same sex partners who were victims of the New York disaster on September 11th.
The Supreme Court's decision on vouchers thrilled most conservatives. This decision is very popular in minority communities where school children are trapped in failing education institutions. However vouchers are not popular in suburban communities. The issue has been defeated in Congress by suburban Republicans. Voters from the suburbs have defeated vouchers when they were on state ballots. So while the party might make this an issue and grass roots conservatives would like it, the suburban Republicans who are part of the Bush coalition might well revolt.
The voters and even some in the grass roots have turned on to the privacy issues. A year ago, in the wake of 9/11, they were willing to support intrusions into their privacy in the interest of safety. Attorney General John Ashcroft was once the darling of grass roots conservatives. He is now seen as the enemy of the Fourth Amendment and impatience with Big Brother security measures grows, especially among grass roots activists. But privacy will not be an issue with the voters at-large this fall.
That is why it is possible that the Democrats will make gains. The Republicans may not raise any issues that will get grass roots conservatives to the polls. In 1994 these conservatives constituted 37 percent of the vote. In 2000, they constituted only 31 percent of the vote. If they drop another percentage or two, Republicans will lose, and could lose big.
We shall see if Democrats are smart enough to turn voter perception about the Republican-Big Business connection into an issue that resonates with the average voter. Thus far they have proved remarkably inept in their efforts to develop issues against President Bush. It could be they will miss what for them is a golden opportunity. However, if they get their act together, President Bush will be dealing with a Democrat Congress for the two years before he has to face the voters. If what has happened in the Senate this past year is any guide, the president will get nothing conservative through the Congress. He will only win if he compromises with the liberals. Then the Democrats will say he is a do nothing president.
Paul M. Weyrich is president of the Free Congress Foundation.
Do you think Hillary Clintion is satisfied with losing half the time? Especially with things as important as judgeships?
Satisfied with being the minority party, the GOP will soon find itself back in the position.
SD
I didn't capitalize the words and I don't know why you did. Did you run out of scare quotes?
The party would be one that was serious about returning our country to one of a free self-determiing people, living under a constitutional government.
Give me that and I don't care what name you use.
SD
I can't speak to the Jewish totals, but I can for American blacks. First, it depends on where it happens. If the GOP can scrape off a mere 10% more of the black vote in NY, FLA, and CA, the RATS are toast.
Unfortunately, we have several people here who will go apoplectic when the GOP goes after black voters.
If a black votes for a Republican, it's because the GOP was "pandering," you see.
There is an "all or nothing" element here, isn't it?
If they really can't see no difference between the parties, at this point in our history...they ain't lookin' too hard.
Perhaps a 'true'party could rise from the ashes? Perhaps, maybe, could be, I dunno, I'm not sure...That's simply not good enough. Sacrifice the GOP on the off-chance that a 'true' party could perhaps emerge? Perhaps I could get struck by lightning. Perhaps I could win the lottery.
I would rather see the Democratic Party crushed for the sake of the country.
And considering the fact that no one yet has surpassed Ted Williams' batting average, yes, batting .500 is pretty damn satisfying.
Perhaps; time will tell. Nevertheless, the people I know are pretty damned disillusioned and dejected, but, then again, maybe I have the wrong circle of friends.
<Thank YOU, George the first, for lying to the country and raising taxes.
And thank YOU, Republican "leadership," for running that cold, decrepit old mummy Bob Dole as an "inspiring" candidate.
P.S. I held my nose and voted for the both of the insipid old Washington insiders.
If they really can't see no difference between the parties, at this point in our history...they ain't lookin' too hard.
I'll answer your post as soon as I translate your ebonics.
Do the Democrats do anything he disapproves of?
Ronald Reagan would have taken him to the woodshed a loooonnnnnggggg time ago.
Um, no. Nice to see you throw racial mud, but the certain fact is that when a Republican panders it is "pandering."
When good, constitutional, and conservative ideals like equality in the eyes of the law are sloughed off in order to accept the lie of group spoils and affirmative action, then that Republican is no longer representing the values for which conservatives support him. Period. He has whored himself.
SD
So, the solution is yet another political party? That's naive, idealistic, ideologic or a weak attempt splinter one particular party. Buchanan wants your support.
Hmmm -- polls are notoriously unreliable and unscientific, but I saw one yesterday that gave Bush a 51% approval rating on the economy. Domestic issues usually have the most impact on Congressional elections, do they not? I wouldn't consider 51% encouraging. The popularity ratings of which you speak have more to do with personal admiration (as compared to Clinton) of the person, rather than with policy, as I'm afraid the Republicans may find out in November.
Republicans seem to be relying heavily on presidential popularity in the war effort -- risky business, I'd say, since one undeniable terrorist act of consequence -- particularly if it's immigration, visa, or airport security related -- can destroy that in a New York minute.
You're right. Time will tell to an extent, as to whether that support translates into votes. But really the only way we have to measure such a thing is through opinion polls, and the polls from the last few months have shown overwhelming support for President Bush from Pubbies/conservatives. The exact opposite of what so many naysayers try to proclaim on this board. I point to the successful fundraising as more "evidence" supporting those polls.
I'm not talking about baseball. I'm talking about the track record of republicans in selecting good conservative judges. And it is well below .500. When damn near perfection should be the goal.
I don't want to rule if it means that we support CFR to make the media happy, or pass out pork in an alleged education bill. Or do nothing positive about our agenda, only playing defense against the next encroachment.
Phooey! At least democrats don't lie to me and pretend they support the COnstitution.
SD
That's totally laughable on its face!
Here's the scenario: The Left remains pretty much united. The Right splinters (as usual). What does this get you?
What I'm "sick" of is the notion that some 3rd party can put up enough of a fight to make a difference. Consider this. Say the planets align just right in a Presidential election year and a candidate from, say, the Constitution Party wins the Presidency. Who would still be in Congress? D's and R's. What will ensue then is complete gridlock. What's that called? STATUS QUO. Therefore, going with the odds that are most in your favor is the smartest thing to do. This, and a realization that you never get everything that you want in this life. There's a laundry list of things that I wish G.W. would do. But the chances of him actually doing all that I want are slim and none. You know what else? Slim just left town.
It's a numbers game. If you don't have sufficient numbers to pass what you want passed, the game's over.
Numbers, people. It's all about the numbers.
Incorrect... but it's certainly easier to blame others than for addressing the GOP's own shortcomings.
Translated: Either conservatives vote Republican regardless of party performance, or they're "unappeasable."
Such a nice big tent.
I don't expect every illegal to be deported tomorrow... but I also don't expect the GOP to be pushing any amnesties.
I don't expect the Great Society to be dismantled tomorrow... but I also don't expect a brand new prescription drug entitlement costing hundreds of billions of dollars.
I don't expect full freedom of political speech in the next election... but I also don't expect the GOP to be upholding the concept of constraints on speech through CFR.
I'm not unappeasable, I only expect that where we can't advance our position we hold the line. The problem isn't too many "unappeasables," it's too much appeasement of Democrats.
There is a difference between appeasement and compromise... compromise is getting only part of what we want, advancing our position incrementally. Appeasement is giving the opposition all or part of what they want, advancing their side incrementally.
I'm quite sure that 51% includes Dems and independents. I'm strictly talking about Pubbies/conservative opinions.
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