Polling Report on Election 2002

Polling Report DOT Com ^ | FR Post 7-14-02 | Editorial Staff

[vannrox]

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Election 2002 All data are from nationwide surveys of Americans 18 & older.

Generic House ballot test Control of Congress

State and local campaign polls are available in the subscriber area of our web site. INFORMATION ON SUBSCRIBING

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Generic House Ballot Test Polls listed chronologically.

Public Opinion Strategies (R). Latest: June 30-July 1, 2002. N=800 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5.
					.
"And thinking ahead to the next U.S. congressional election in your district in November: If the election were held today, for whom would you vote: [rotate] the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate? [If Republican/Democrat, ask:] And would you say you would DEFINITELY be voting for the Republican/Democrat candidate or just PROBABLY voting for the Republican/Democrat candidate? [If undecided, ask:] Which way do you lean as of today? Do you lean toward the Democratic or Republican candidate?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Undecided/ Refused
		%	%	%
	6/30 - 7/1/02	45	42	13
	5/28 - 6/2/02	42	42	16
	5/7-9/02	42	41	17
	4/15-18/02	43	40	17
	3/19-25/02	43	40	17
	2/27-28/02	40	37	23
	1/14-16/02	41	38	21

 

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Latest: June 28-30, 2002. N=865 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.
					.
"If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district [rotate]: the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate?" If undecided: "As of today, do you lean more toward [rotate] the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Other (vol.)/ Undecided
		%	%	%
	6/28-30/02	49	44	7
	6/21-23/02	42	50	8
	5/28-29/02	46	45	9
	4/29 - 5/1/02	44	48	8
	4/5-7/02	43	50	7
	3/02	46	46	8
	2/02	47	43	10
	1/25-27/02	46	44	10
	1/11-14/02	46	43	11
	12/01	48	43	9
	11/01	45	45	10
	6/01	45	49	6

 

Democracy Corps Poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). Latest: June 18-24, 2002. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.
					.
". . . If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district where you live?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Other (vol.)	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%
	6/02	43	45	1	10
	5/02	44	45	1	10
	4/02	42	46	2	11
	2/26 - 3/3/02	44	44	2	10
	1/02	45	45	2	8
	12/01	44	43	2	11
	9/01	43	47	2	8
	6/01	44	46	2	7
	4/01	44	42	2	12

 

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Latest: June 19-23, 2002. N=941 registered voters nationwide.
					.
"If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held today, would you vote for the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate for Congress in your district?" If no choice: "As of today, do you lean more to the Republican or the Democrat?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Other/ Undecided
		%	%	%
	6/02	44	46	10
	2/02	46	45	9
	11/01	44	44	12

 

CNN/Time Poll conducted by Harris Interactive. Latest: June 19-20, 2002. N=841 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.4.
.
"If the election for Congress were being held today, do you think you would vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress in your district or for the Republican candidate?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Other (vol.)	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%
	6/02	40	49	3	8
	5/02	44	48	2	6
	4/02	42	45	3	10
	1/02	43	47	2	8
	10/12/01	46	45	2	7
	9/27/01	42	46	2	10

 

CBS News Poll. Latest: June 18-20, 2002. N=748 registered voters nationwide.
.
"If the 2002 election for U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Depends (vol.)	Don't Know
		%	%	%	%
	6/02	38	37	12	13
	5/02	40	40	9	11
	2/02	40	40	11	9
	1/02	37	39	10	14

 

Bloomberg News Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Latest: June 11-16, 2002. N=1,201 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.
.
"If the 2002 elections for U.S. Congress were being held today, would you vote for the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate for Congress in your district?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Other (vol.)	Wouldn't Vote (vol.)	Don't Know
		%	%	%	%	%
	6/02	36	36	4	4	20
	4-5/02	34	38	-	3	24
	1/02	38	39	1	2	20
	12/01	35	39	2	2	23
	11/01	36	40	1	2	22

 

Tarrance Group (R)/Lake Snell Perry & Associates (D) Battleground Survey. Latest: June 9-11, 2002. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.
					.
"Thinking ahead to the 2002 elections for U.S. Congress -- If the election for U.S. Congress were being held today and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for [rotate] the Republican candidate OR the Democratic candidate in your district?" If undecided: "And which party's candidate do you lean toward at this time?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Other/ Not Sure
		%	%	%
	6/02	39	44	16
	1/02	41	39	20
	4/01*	35	39	26
					.
	* Among registered voters

 

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Robert Teeter (R). Latest: June 8-10, 2002. N=1,008 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.
					.
"In this year's election for U.S. House of Representatives, do you plan to vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?" If "Not sure," ask:  "Well, which way do you lean at this time?
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Depends (vol.)	Other/ Neither/ Won't Vote (vol.)	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%	%
	6/02	33	35	15	3	14
	4/02	33	32	19	4	12
	1/02	34	33	16	3	14

 

Zogby America Poll. Latest: May 28-30, 2002. N=1,015 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.2.
.
"In the congressional race in 2002, for which party's candidate do you intend to vote: Democrat or Republican?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Neither/ Other/ Not Sure
		%	%	%
	5/28-30/02	34	34	32
	4/19-22/02 *	30	36	34
	3/25-27/02 *	33	31	36
	3/8-10/02 *	32	33	36
	3/1-3/02 *	29	33	38
	1/29-31/02	32	32	36
	1/21-23/02	29	32	39
	1/2-4/02	31	31	38
	12/17-19/01	32	29	40
	8/28-30/01	25	31	44
	6/24-26/01	28	38	34
	4/23-25/01	27	32	42
	3/27-28/01	28	30	42
	2/27-28/01	25	30	45
.
	* Among registered voters

 

League of Conservation Voters Education Fund poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). March 13-19, 2002. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.
					.
"Now, thinking about the election this November: If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Republican or the Democratic candidate in your district where you live?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Other (vol.)	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%
	3/02	36	38	10	15

 

American Viewpoint (R) National Monitor. March 6-11, 2002. N=800 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5.
					.
"Thinking ahead to the 2002 elections for a moment, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the [rotate] Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Not Sure
		%	%	%
	3/02	35	34	32

 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Latest: Feb. 26-27, 2002. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.
					.
"...If the congressional election were held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate in your district or the Democratic candidate in your district?" If undecided: "Well, if you had to vote, which way would you lean?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Other/ Not Sure
		%	%	%
	2/02	40	32	28
	12/01	40	29	31
	3/01	38	36	26
	1/01	33	38	29

 

The Los Angeles Times Poll. Jan. 31-Feb. 3, 2002. N=1,545 adults nationwide. Results shown are among registered voters.
						.
"If the election for Congress were being held today, which party would you like to see win in your congressional district: the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- cratic	Neither (vol.)	Other Party (vol.)	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%	%
	2/02	41	47	2	1	9

 

ABC News and The Washington Post. Jan. 24-27, 2002. N=1,507 adults nationwide. Results shown are among registered voters.
						.
"Thinking about the U.S. House of Representatives election in November, in the congressional district where you live, if that election were being held today, for whom would you vote: the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?" If "Neither," "Don't know," or "Refused," ask:  "Who would you lean toward?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Neither (vol.)	Wouldn't Vote (vol.)	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%	%
	1/02	50	43	2	1	5

 

EMILY's List poll conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang (D). Jan. 2-8, 2002. N=1,205 active voters nationwide. MoE ± 2.9.
.
"In the election for U.S. Congress that will be held later this year, do you plan to vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?" If "Not sure" or "Depends," ask: "Well, all other things being equal, do you lean more toward the Democrat or more toward the Republican?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Neither (vol.)	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%
	1/02	32	31	3	34

 

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Control of Congress Polls listed chronologically.

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Latest: July 5-8, 2002. N=1,013 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.
						.
"Do you think the country would be better off if the Republicans controlled Congress, or if the Democrats controlled Congress?"
		Repub- licans	Demo- crats	Neither (vol.)	Same (vol.)	No Opinion
		%	%	%	%	%
	7/02	40	39	11	3	7
	1/02	44	43	3	3	7
	10/01	38	37	11	7	7
	8/01	34	43	10	6	7
	4/01	41	43	6	3	7
	1/01	39	41	7	5	8
	7/99	37	42	12	2	7
	6/99	41	41	11	2	5
	5/99	36	37	14	4	9
	12/98	30	41	13	5	11
	9/98	35	41	11	3	10

 

Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report Poll. Latest: June 21-23, 2002. N=797 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.6.
				.
"And if the election for Congress were held today, would you want to see the Republicans or Democrats win control of Congress?"
		Repub- licans	Demo- crats	Neither (vol.)	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%
	6/21-23/02	45	39	13	3
	6/7-9/02	44	39	12	5
	5/17-19/02	44	40	12	4
	5/3-6/02	43	40	12	5
	4/19-21/02	44	41	10	5
	4/12-14 & 19-21/02	45	39	11	5
	3/14-17/02	39	44	14	4
	3/1-3/02	42	40	13	4
	2/1-3 - 2/15-17/02	43	41	12	4
	1/18-21 & 2/1-3/02	46	39	11	4
	1/4-6/02	44	43	9	3

 

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Robert Teeter (R). Latest: June 8-10, 2002. N=1,008 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.
				.
"What is your preference for the outcome of the November 2002 congressional elections: a Congress controlled by Republicans, or a Congress controlled by Democrats?"
		Repub- licans	Demo- crats	Not Sure
		%	%	%
	6/02	42	41	17
	1/02	44	40	16
	12/01	42	40	18

 

Ipsos-Reid Express. Nov 30-Dec. 2, 2001. N=1,000 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.
				.
"And if the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of Congress?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- cratic	Not Sure
		%	%	%
	11/30 - 12/2/01	48	39	13

[vannrox]

Good Solid Information.

[jumpstartme]

Good solid information, but not sure what to make of it. So many swing voters, so much variety in polling methods and results.

It would be even more useful if we knew where these voters were located and whether their existing rep. was D or R. As it is, it really says nothing more than it's a crap shoot.

[perez24]

This far out, it's a crap shoot anyway.

[afuturegovernor]

Bottom line - it's going to be close.

[GraniteStateConservative]

Things will pick-up in August when primaries start back up. Polls in August will start to reflect November outcomes-- and it will give us an indication how the corporate responsibility issue plays with voters (for or against the GOP).

[Thebaddog]

Check out the Emily's List poll and figure that one out.

[jmaroneps37]

The generic polls are like the weather, if you don't like what you see, check them tomorrow. That having been said, DON'T be surprised when the rats show a big lead maybe 6 or even 8 points in some poll, probably Harris - a very reliable democrat stooge- Remember this, in most polls if you ask "What % of congress are crooks?" you'll get rediculous numbers like 80%. BUT if you then ask the same people if their congressman is a crook. About 8% will say yes. "Oh my guy's not a crook ;but the guy in the next district is. In other words it will be some breif good news for the rats but chances are it won't last. We've been behind very late in all of the cycles since 94 but we've held on We will again.