Posted on 04/20/2024 8:42:40 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
We are now roughly six and a half months from election day or election month, depending on your state’s election laws.
Today, we’ll focus on Joe Biden’s recent polling surge, as shown in the Real Clear Politics Poll Average of Trump vs Biden. You will note Trump is up over Biden by a whopping 0.4 percentage points. If we remove the possible outlier Rasmussen survey from the average, showing Trump at +8, Joe Biden would be ahead by 0.4. Republicans might be dismayed by this, and Democrats encouraged.
In January of this year, Trump was ahead of Biden by +4. Since then, the poll average has tightened. Is this real, or is there something else going on?
Before getting into some poll internals, let’s see how a few polls have changed since the beginning of 2024. A good one to start with is Emerson.
1/26 Trump +1
2/13 Trump +1
3/05 Biden +2
4/02 Trump +1
4/16 Trump +3
Next, let’s look at the Economist/YouGov Poll.
1/07 Tie
1/14 Biden +1
1/21 Trump +1
1/28 Biden +1
2/04 Trump +1
2/11 Tie
2/18 Trump +1
2/25 Tie
3/03 Trump +2
3/10 Trump +2
Finally, let’s look at the Quinnipiac Poll.
1/25 Biden +6
2/15 Biden +4
3/21 Biden +3
Looking at the poll trend rather than the chatter, you might conclude that Trump was slowly gaining strength. But the RCP polling average contains different surveys in different combinations, some of which shouldn’t be included.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
No.
Here’s some real numbers:
Fox News Polls: GA, MI, PA, WI
Fox ^ | 4/18/24
Georgia: Trump 51 to Biden 45
Michigan: Trump 48 to Biden 46
Pennsylvania: Trump 48 to Biden 48 Wisconsin:
Trump 48 to Biden 48
And this is Faux news which basically hates Trump, Us and America in that order.
Real real numbers:
An Echelon Insights survey of 2,401 registered voters, conducted for the conservative think tank The Heritage Foundation, shows that
Trump is ahead of Biden in Arizona (51 percent to 45 percent),
Georgia (52 percent to 42 percent),
Michigan (51 percent to 45 percent),
Nevada (51 percent to 44 percent)
and Pennsylvania (49 percent to 45 percent).
The poll indicates that Biden is leading Trump in just one key swing state, Wisconsin, and even then, only by one point (47 percent to 46 percent).
By two weeks from now the fake polls will have Crime Boss Joey ahead by 2 points nationally and ahead in EVERY swing state.
Of course this will be all lies but the communists have to start making believe Joey is surging to make the steal they will try easier for them to defend.
Joey is at 60% support with Blacks and 24% have already said they are voting for President Trump.
No Democrat/communist has ever won with 87% or less and Hillary Clinton lost with 89%.
The defection of these two voting blocs expose any good poll for Joey to be a lie.
He is losing with Hispanics - not barely ahead but six points (46/40) with Hispanics.
Sorry Surrender Monkeys; I know you were smiling and laughing over the headline but you lose again.
Only the Biden Crime Family was polled....so, of course, Biden is “surging”.......snx.
Someone suggested that the earlier polls showed Trump way ahead to try to get Biden to drop out. That’s what the machine was hoping for.
With the GOP betraying us and sticking a knife in our backs, they are DONE.
we’re not gonna vote our way out of this mess.
Trump is NOT going to win the Popular Vote in 2024.
In 2020, Trump lost the Popular Vote by 4.5%.
Thanks to massive immigration - which a majority of Republicans support - the Republican Party will be a minority party for many decades, and probably forever.
Fortunately, all of the Democratic Party popular majority live in California and New York state.
Trump actually won the Popular Vote by 37,000 votes in the other 48 states and the District of Columbia.
The ONLY polls that matter for Trump are the Swing State polls, and their Electoral Votes.
Trump MUST win some kind of combination of Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, to hit 270.
Nevada (6 EV) is probably the only other state that Trump might flip.
And, Trump must hold ALL his state wins from 2020 - specifically North Carolina (15 EV).
GOP has given us $200 Trillion in unpayable debt/liabilities, so our kids and theirs are already bankrupt; open borders (still); endless wars to enrich their donors; FedGov/Deep State spying on our with a warrant in violation of the US Constitution; and social media bans.
It helped destroy our nation. Enough voters will not vote this time as a result and it’s effectively over.
“Without a warrant”.
Are they counting all the illegals they are registering to vote?
Pollsters can supply any good news for Biden they’re paid under the table to provide.
Uh, no.
That’s betting on the theft.
Biden did gain a little ground after the state of the union, but is still trailing, but FAR more importantly Trump is still ahead in all of the swing states and is running FAR ahead of where he was in their last matchup
“ I have zero doubts that Biden will end up the “winner.” None.”
Fascists don’t “lose” elections. They own everyone counting the votes.
The outcome is assured. Afterward, America can reject it and rebel or meekly succumb to the new 1000 year Reich. That outcome is assured as well, as America has no soul and only dark spirits left within it.
Trump could very well win the popular vote, Trump is averaging 6 points better against Biden than at this point last time
And I have a theory that once someone starts supporting Trump, they never go back.
Polls only say what the ones writing the checks want them to say..
maybe...and probably truer than I think. It’s still too far out from the election to go by this, but ... I thought the same thing in 2020.
I’m look at the non major candidates...Rats have almost 10% that would probably go to Pres. Biden.
Where 1.4% might go to Pres. Trump.
Trump will come back, especially if there are massive protests during the Democratic Convention. Then Biden will gain points in the fall. Incumbents usually do. After that, it’s all up to how much voter fraud the Democrats can get away with.
I’m still not convinced he is the legitimate president.
IF biden is truly surging (yeah right) then our nation is too stupid to remain a free republic governed by common sense much longer
My bet is that Trump is ahead, and polls showing biden ‘surging’ are gaslighting per usual
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.