Posted on 04/02/2024 7:20:09 PM PDT by lasereye
Unless you are deeply immersed in politics, you likely missed a major development over the last three weeks: Since his State of the Union speech, President Joe Biden has seen a marked reversal of his fortunes.
Indeed, since Biden addressed the nation in early March, polling shows that Biden is gaining ground, as former President Donald Trump now leads Biden by only one percentage point according to the RealClearPolitics polling average — Trump’s smallest lead since January.
In the Quinnipiac poll released last week, Biden led by three points, 48 percent to 45 percent, bringing the total to 12 national polls showing Biden leading Trump since the SOTU, as Jessica Tarlov noted last week.
Moreover, Biden’s bounce is being seen not only in national polls but also in the battleground states that will determine the winner. In Wisconsin, Biden now leads Trump (46 percent to 45 percent), a 5-point swing in Biden’s favor since February, per the latest Bloomberg/Morning Consult Swing State Tracking poll.
In Pennsylvania Biden erased what was a 6-point lead for Trump in February, and the state is now tied at 45 percent apiece, according to the same poll.
And in Michigan — a state that has been at the center of Democratic angst due to Biden’s support for Israel and the state’s large Arab population — Trump’s 2-point lead in February is now a tie (45 percent each) per Bloomberg/Morning Consult.
Even Nevada, a state where Trump has dominated the polling — according to RealClearPolitics, Trump has led every poll since October — has slowly but steadily warmed up to Biden. In January, Trump’s lead was as high as 8 points (48 percent to 40 percent), and in February the former president still held a 6-point advantage in Bloomberg/Morning Consult’s poll.
However, the latest survey shows Biden within the margin of error, trailing Trump by just 2 points, 46 percent to 44 percent.
To be clear, while polling represents how voters feel at a single point in time, the larger trend is clear: Biden’s numbers are improving, albeit slowly, while Trump’s are flat or declining, nationally and in individual swing states.
In that same vein, Biden is seeing growing enthusiasm outside of the polls. In the 24 hours after the State of the Union speech, Biden took in $10 million in campaign donations, nearly one-third of the amount Trump’s campaign had on hand as of its latest Federal Election Commission filings.
This was not a one-off. On Thursday, Biden held a fundraiser in New York City with former Presidents Obama and Clinton that raised another $25 million, adding to Biden’s already massive cash advantage over his opponent.
What’s behind Biden’s comeback? While there are a few possible factors, such as Trump spending more time in the courtroom than on the campaign trail trying to win over disaffected Nikki Haley voters while Biden visited five cities in the past week alone, where he made his case to voters.
However, the main reason for Biden’s bounce is likely even simpler: Negative views on the economy are moderating, and as voters begin feeling better about the economy, it is logical that they would also feel better about the person leading the country.
As noted in the latest CNBC All-America Economics Survey, one-quarter of registered voters now say the economy is “excellent” or “good,” up from just 19 percent in December and the highest reading since summer 2021. True, this is still a low number, but again, the trend is in Biden’s favor.
To that end, since entering office, Biden has struggled to communicate just how strong the American economy has been under his administration, particularly our robust recovery from COVID-19 and related economic shocks, despite signs of a strong economy.
The latest jobs report showed unemployment sitting at 3.9 percent, near historic lows. The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, has hit 22 record highs this year and just completed its best first quarter since 2019.
And inflation, which has been a thorn in Biden’s side virtually his entire presidency and remains a problem, has slowed down, with the latest overall personal consumption expenditure reading showing a 2.5 percent rise over the last 12 months — still higher than the Federal Reserve wants, but a significant decrease from February 2023’s 5.19 percent number.
Most importantly, the latest personal consumption expenditure report has increased the chances that the Fed will lower interest rates in June, which would lower borrowing costs right before the election, and may further juice the stock market, which many Americans use as a visible sign of the strength — or weakness — of the overall economy.
This is not to say that Biden will cruise into November’s election, nor is it guaranteed that Biden’s comeback is anything more than transitory, as Biden’s overall approval rating at 39 percent, per FiveThirtyEight, is higher only than former President Harry Truman at this point in their presidencies, even trailing Jimmy Carter by 4 points.
Further, on a slew of other issues, voters resoundingly prefer Donald Trump, including immigration (Trump +48), crime (Trump +28) and inflation (Trump +27) according to CNBC.
Rather, it is to say that if sentiment towards the economy continues improving, Biden will have removed one of the biggest obstacles to his reelection — the perception that he is bad for the economy and bad for people’s personal financial situation.
While it remains to be seen whether these trends will continue in Biden’s direction, if they do, Biden may well be able to sustain his growing momentum and present an even more formidable challenge in November.
Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book, “America: Unite or Die.”
Yep. We don’t like what this poll says so it’s bullschit
You TDSers never give up.
If supporting abortion is enough to give the democrats the edge, then this country deserves to fall.
I'm just sorry we couldn't save it for the sake of the children who aren't at fault for the mess we created, but will be the ones that have to live with it.
All the poll results that we do like are wrong as well.
Polls say whatever their sponsors want them to say. They are merely another form of campaign advertising.
Baghdad Bob did it better.
Lousy methodology is a great tell.
I must politely disagree.
The low information voters despise the ads more than those of us who know they are trash ads.
Seriously, how many people have you heard say something along the lines of ‘I learned candidate is an honorable scumbag snd I am voting for that person’?
NO ONE gets value from these ads. We are told that nonsense so that we will accept them as necessary. That is BS.
Biden is not the candidate. The Democrat Party is the candidate gaining in the polls
Rampant vote fraud in six Democrat-controlled cities is on track to decide the outcome of the "elections", just as it did in 2020.
These cities are:
Disrupting the "elections" in these cities would improve the changes of a Republican victory. At the very minimum, every ballot from these locations should be challenged by legal teams, and motions made to invalidate the counts. And every step in the chain of custody for ballots should be videotaped.
Taking a page from the Democrat playbook, "Recount, Recount, Recount, until the Republican finally wins. Then stop. And find those missing ballots."
Yes, that is nasty. And it works, almost every time. We must learn from our opponents.
For additional boost, the "elections" in the following cities are totally fraudulent game shows controlled by the Democrat party. The "winners" are whoever the party appoints to the positions. But the Democrats are cheating other Democrats, as they have run out of Republicans to defraud.
But, again, disrupting these "elections" would help Republicans. No, it is unlikely that can be done by entirely legal methods. Mere criticism of the government in some of these locations can be considered racist "hate speech" which is "against the law". How far we have fallen.
Even with honest elections, citizens of these polities would likely never put Republicans into office. They want the systems that are in place, and willfully believe they will be placed in charge of something important and get free goodies from the system. They are greatly mistaken. Shaking their belief is a critical activity.
Negative advertising might work, especially if it promotes factional splits within the Democrats. Shake those core beliefs of the Democrat faithful and see what happens.
Women outvote men by substantial margins (20%+) in nearly every State. And they generally vote for socialist politicians. Married women tend to vote Republican by slender margins (53%) while single women vote Democrat by very large margins (85%+). This must be addressed and there are no good solutions other than getting men to vote in much larger numbers.
Promoting an image of swaggering masculinity is the key. It brings out the Black and Hispanic men. Their women will follow. It brings out quite a few of the gay men too, and even some lesbians, oddly enough. People who are offended are not going to vote Republican in any case and can be written off as wasted efforts.
The fundamental reality is that the economy is badly deteriorating under the rule of the Democrats. And this is intentional. Our rulers and their minions desire unrestrained power over an impoverished third-world peasantry which is totally dependent on favors from the government to survive. They are well on their way to that goal. It would be very bad for the rest of us if they succeed.
People must be reminded that is so and things will get much worse if the Democrats are allowed to remain in power. And even if Democrats are removed from office, they will sabotage everything they can damage on their way out. Either way, there will be an economic crash in the near future. The question is who will pick up the pieces afterwards. And how will they be put back together.
Brace for the impact.
I think the Democrats will wipe out any Red Wave as the GOP doesn’t want to win..
Oh, look. The legacy media losers at The Hill are trying to influence the narrative. Isn’t that cute?
MILLIONS of ILLEGAL INVADERS ARE BEING REGISTERED TO VOTE—WITHOUT ID.
THE CHEATING BY DEMS IS OVERWHELMING.
You know this how?
Seriously, how many people have you heard say something along the lines of ‘I learned candidate is an honorable scumbag snd I am voting for that person’?
I'm not sure what you mean. Let's say Biden runs millions of dollars in ads saying Trump will cut Social Security. How would the low info voter know that's not true?
Play by the democrats’ rules. I doubt God cares about the rules set up by democrats.
Yes, He actually does. And He does not approve of playing by the devil’s rules, which the RINOs have done for far too long.
Remember Bleeding Kansas. Seems like very few do, these days.
It really doesnt matter. You are free to keep watching and funding.
We’ll sit back and lose while the democrats turn the world in to Satan’s paradise. Ballot harvesting is legal where it is done. All the “legal” changes need to be adopted by the republicans to win.
It’s always been predetermined that Bite-Me would win.
It worked once, why change a successful strategery?
Who’s sitting back? Only the RINOs, i.e. when they don’t have to be seen aiding the Democrats openly as many did back in 2021 (and the midterms).
Playing a game that’s designed to end in actual insurrection will precipitate just that, and nor electoral “victory”.
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