Posted on 07/12/2020 10:06:14 AM PDT by robowombat
COVID-19 surge pushes US toward deadly cliff BY REID WILSON - 07/12/20 06:00 AM EDT
The coronavirus is spreading at ever-faster rates in a broad array of states, putting the U.S. on the precipice of an explosion of illness that threatens to overwhelm the nation's health care system.
The painful economic lockdowns imposed in March gave the country time to flatten the epidemiological curve and contain the virus. But that window of opportunity, which came at great economic cost, is quickly slamming shut. Health experts say all signs point to a deadly summer and fall unless government leaders implement a much more robust national strategy.
The breadth of the spread is staggering. Forty-three states have seen the number of cases confirmed on an average day increase in the last two weeks. The number of patients in hospitals has risen over the same period in 29 states. More than 80 percent of intensive care beds are occupied in Alabama, Arizona and Georgia.
The same models that predicted surges in Phoenix, Houston and Miami now show a new and broader round of cities as the likely next epicenters. The number of confirmed cases is likely to rise substantially in places like Atlanta, Kansas City, Mo., Tulsa, Okla., and Greenville, S.C.
The virus also appears to be traveling north along the I-95 corridor. Cities like Philadelphia and Baltimore, which struggled through earlier peaks of viral transmission, are now seeing early signs of a second wave. Transmissions even appear to be rising in New York City.
On the other side of the country, outbreaks in California have grown to unprecedented proportions. The Golden State is now averaging more than 7,900 new cases a day, substantially more than its seven-day average just two weeks ago.
Public health experts warn that the U.S. has only a fleeting window in which to wrestle the virus back under some form of control. Without a stronger national response, including restrictions on large gatherings and requirements that people wear masks in public, the risk of a second peak could bring new lockdowns and more economic harm, derail the beginning of the new school year and even overwhelm local health systems.
"Our projections show that without immediate actions to significantly reduce travel and social distancing nationwide, this virus will not only threaten our ability to reopen schools in the coming weeks, but our capacity to care for the sickest individuals," said David Rubin, director of PolicyLab at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia whose models forecast higher case counts.
More than 3.1 million Americans have tested positive for the virus, though the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that as many as 25 million people in the U.S. may have contracted it. More than 133,000 people have died, almost twice as many victims as in Brazil, the second-hardest hit country.
Cities that successfully avoided early explosions of cases are now in the crosshairs after the loosening of restrictions in some states and regions that helped avoid what studies have suggested would have been tens of millions of infections.
"I would be lying if I didn't say I was concerned," Kansas City, Mo., Mayor Quintin Lucas said in an interview. "We have looked at the trends out of Texas, Arizona and Florida. Those states kind of reflect the political choices that were made statewide in Missouri, and that does give us concern."
The Kansas City metropolitan area has confirmed more than 10,000 coronavirus cases. The PolicyLab model shows Jackson County, Mo., is likely to experience more than 200 new cases every day by the beginning of August.
Rubin warned that smaller cities are likely to experience significant outbreaks in the coming weeks, potentially straining health systems that are not as prepared to handle a high volume of patients in need of intensive care. College towns like South Bend, Ind., and Tuscaloosa, Ala., are beginning to see case counts rise even with most students gone.
"We're starting to see a mild uptick," said James Mueller, South Bend's mayor. "We're in a much better position now than we were for the first increase or the first peak."
At other levels of government, some who have sought to downplay the severity of the American outbreak have pointed to an increasing number of tests being conducted across the country, which they say will naturally lead to identification of those who have only minor symptoms or asymptomatic cases. But the number of cases is rising faster than would be accounted for by the increase in testing; the share of tests coming back positive is rising in 38 states.
More than a quarter of tests conducted in Arizona are coming back positive, according to state data. More than 15 percent of tests are coming back positive in Alabama, Florida, Mississippi, South Carolina and Texas.
Governors in 23 states have ordered residents to wear masks in public, though President Trump has refused to order a nationwide mask mandate. Trump has instead focused on reopening the economy, insisting that schools operate as normal in the months before he faces voters in November.
Louisiana governor announces mask mandate amid COVID-19 surge Los Angeles County orders closure of garment manufacturer after 300... But public health experts argue action is needed now to avoid a second peak of tsunami-like proportions.
"We never gave communities a real chance at success as we lacked a national strategy around masking and limiting gathering sizes to act as a buffer as places reopened," Rubin and his colleagues Gregory Tasian and Jing Huang wrote.
"So, do we admit that we’ve failed and try to salvage the reopening of our schools in fall by quickly enacting a national approach to pause all reopenings and try to get our country back onto stable footing?” he asked. “It may not be what people want to hear, but the situation is that dire that we need to consider this."
Death rates are not dropping and are actually in the rise. This rate is a leading indicator. We do have better treatment and if we can keep this away from the vulnerable, you might have a chance at keeping a low death rate but a lot of people want to ignore public health measures.
I should have said, this rate is not a leading indicator.
ok, usa death rate seems to have increased by about 25%.
mexicans with bug crossing border?
Well, since the majority of people that are ACTUALLY diagnosed with it are told to go home, rest, drink fluids and take Tylenol, if they’re feeling bad, overcome it at a 99% rate, it’s really hard to see where the “deadly cliff” is.
Others will take the hydroxychloroquinine concoction and be fine.
Before this author and the sheep that will believe every part of the article goes further, maybe they can investigate reports of people who were NOT tested and received news that their results came back as being positive for the virus.
“Transmissions even appear to be rising in New York City.”
Oh no we all gonna die!
And if they gave WuHu Positive folks the Hydroxy Trifecta on first symptoms, instead of locking it all away and pushing the Gilead poison, 90% of the “cases” wouldn’t even get the Panda Sniffles.
But the Sky is Falling, so put on your worthless blue mask, horde your toilet paper, shut down your businesses, and lock away all the school kids.
The lying sack of shite Dr Doom Commands it!
But Cuomo gets high approval ratings for handling the virus (most deaths in U.S.), and PDJT gets low ratings. Go figure.
Half the population gets their news from the MSM and are thoroughly brainwashed. Don’t forget more than six thousand covid 19 nursing homes deaths are attributed directly to dictator el duce Cuomo,
“The coronavirus is spreading at ever-faster rates in a broad array of states, putting the U.S. on the precipice of an explosion of illness that threatens to overwhelm the nation’s health care system.”
So are these cases really that serious or are a bunch of Millennials that that it cool to join in the BLM “protests” now getting mild cases of COVID-19 and demanding to be put in the hospital so they can get the care they “deserve”?
and testing continues to be off the charts...i believe almost 750,000 tests a day.
How much of this is even true though? How to get anywhere near close to any truth? The tests do not answer the correct questions. Positive doesn’t tell you if you have THIS coronavirus or if you will have any symptoms of illness. Negative doesn’t tell you for sure that you don’t have covid. You can have every symptom but test negative.
Who is in the ICU? Are patients in ICU for non covid things counted here? Same with hospitalizations. Are all the people finally getting needed surgeries counted?
How many people are truly ill with covid? How many are slightly ill like with a cold, but tested positive and must now with their entire households quarantine?
It’s a nasty flu and deadly for some, but I don’t see a clear way to get ACTUAL MEANINGFUL STATS. The media all go for any stat that scares people.
Psychologists what don’t they know? Sanity?
Not in my state.
Infection rates are almost doubled to about 500 a day (from around 300) but death rates are down to the single digits.
The only curve being flattened is economic growth.
closing down for 2 weeks might have been a good move....get things ready, etc....but if we had allowed the US to get back to normal, people would have caught the virus, gotten over it, at least almost all, and we'd be sitting pretty right now....
but no....we just kept people in their cages so the leftists could continue the asinine lock downs and fear mongering and vote fraud and the handing out of money to friends....
we vulnerable have a choice..which is good....there was however no reason to make everyone else suffer for our fear..
Most people want to live their life. You need to get up dictatorial attitudes.
my hospital DOES have more “cases”...mostly not in the ICU...most are just on the medical floor....
Now that riots are off the front page.
It is all about sympathetic rhetoric, not actions or results. Cuomo's avuncular, calm rhetoric won him many fans.
No.
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