Posted on 04/02/2020 9:10:12 PM PDT by chuknchez
Justin Hart @justin_hart · 1h "...we have estimated the number of individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 who have ever been hospitalized by matching the list of key fields from known cases that are reported by laboratories."
Now, word of caution - maybe this estimation is totally normal but essentially...
Justin Hart @justin_hart NYC is estimating hospitalizations and cases by ASSUMING that OTHER patients who visited ERs with SIMILAR symptoms in a database should AUTOMATICALLY be counted as #COVID19 patients
Stop me if I'm wrong but that could be ONE of the f
New York State and NYC are, IMHO, playing a giant confidence game as a prelude to try to extort tens of billions of “federal” dollars from the American people.
They want their “Trump to City: Drop Dead” moment
So basically they may be counting flu cases in with Covid19 cases, thus jacking the numbers much higher than they really are.
I read somewhere that if you tested negative for the flu, you were automatically classified to have covid.....
I don’t think they are wise to mess with Trump right now.
He is getting really peckish.
Oh no, just another example of a testing failure.
He tore a big chunk out 3M earlier today, so we know he’ll do it. Just ask Mary Barra over at GM...
CC
that would make somewhat some sense especially when there were hardly any tests to be had.
Other than that and since it’s a RAT state...nice try, NY.
I don't think we need more ventilators.....
as I've said before, my hospital has a very low census....telling staff to stay home....
My daughter in Brooklyn was sick with CoVid symptoms from March 6 through the 14th. She had recently returned from a business trip in France. By the time she got her test on the 14th, she came up negative for CoVid19. We think she had it. She’s been fine ever since.
Because there were a limited number of the CDC-provided tests in the beginning, the CDC screening protocol required that, in addition to having all the external symptoms, you had to first be tested for flu and have a negative result before they would even consider giving you the COVID-19 screening test. I have also read that they would skip the COVID-19 test if the symptoms were pronounced enough. The test kit shortage has eased off somewhat but the protocol is probably still being followed.
As of the last update (2 April 2019), New York state (NYS) had 92,381 confirmed cases of COVID-19. (88,453 of these cases were in New York City or in the counties immediately surrounding the city.)
NYS cases are 48.2% of the 213,144 confirmed cases in the United States. (NYC region cases alone are 42% of all US cases) Hospitalizations to date are 12,226, making the hospitalization rate 13.23%. Deaths are reported to be 2,576, giving a death rate of 2.78%
These numbers are truly amazing as California, which has three times the population of New York state, only has 9,191 confirmed cases. Hospitalization rate in California is high to very high depending on whether or not you include suspected cases in the calculations. Limited to just confirmed cases, the hospitalization rate is 20.9%. Adding the suspected cases in hospital increases the rate to phenomenal 58.7%. The death rate is 2.24%
Virginia, the state I am in, has about 45% the population of NYS. Virginia has had 1706 cases resulting in 246 hospitalizations and 41 deaths. This gives Virginia a 14.4% hospitalization rate and a 2.4% death rate.
In terms of percentages hospitalized and death rate, the data is consistent across the 3 states: 13-21% of the confirmed cases require hospitalization and 2.2-2.7% of confirmed cases die.
So what you have read is entirely possible in the New York state case. As the data above show, New York state (and New York City in particular) is saddled with a disproportionate number of COVID-19 cases. Given the massive case load and the need to get treatment started, automatically assuming worst case makes sense. This is probably resulting in wasting medical resources and supplies in some cases but better that than causing a death through being too cautious.
I have an expectant daughter and her husband living in NYC. So we are praying hard these days.
I am also praying for the decision makers at all levels. There is a lot of pressure right now to get this lockdown/pause phase over with as it is hurting the country badly economically and Americans are unused to having their freedom constrained. It is going to be a big strain on the national psyche to not launch like a rocket as soon as the constraints come off. But, having no vaccine yet, lacking a proven cure (although there is hope in this area)and still awaiting widespread availability of diagnostic kits, this is a situation that we, collectively, must not overlook, miss or allow the compromise of a single step on the recovery path and we have to be diligent in getting them in the correct order, too. No rushing, no wink, wink, bending of the rules for personal reasons, etc. And violators...we are going to have to be firm.
Given his personality, this constraint will be hardest of all on PDJT.
America is going to change as a result of this experience. It will change especially with regard to ease of international travel and doubly especially in many aspects of our relationship with China. It is necessary to do but it is not going to be pleasant.
They were, of course, only testing those that were fairly ill.
10% of the positives were hospitalized with 10% of those dying.
Albany and NYC are in for a world of hurt if they’re cooking the numbers...
What will Trump do if they are? Send them a letter?
In Virginia, the current numbers are:
Persons Tested: 17,589
Confirmed Cases: 1706 (9.69% of persons tested had the disease)
Hospitalized: 246 (14.4% of confirmed cases were hospitalized)
Deaths: 41 (2.4% of confirmed cases died)
As is apparent in the NYS and NYC numbers in my previous post, something is really off with respect to their case numbers. Now, once you get into rates of hospitalization and death, the numbers are somewhat in-line with other states. To me, that means the actual disease is no more virulent in NYS and NYC than it is any place else.
And, to be frank, NYS, outside of NYC and its surrounding counties, is not that bad either. So NYC is going to have to looked at pretty hard. With 80% of the cases either asymptomatic or only mildly symptomatic, the analysis will have to be carefully designed and executed to really understand what specific factors contributed to this explosion of cases - 42% of all the nation’s cases are there.
In the end, it may come down to characteristics unique to this particular strain of the corona virus. Personally, I think it will be that an infected person can be contagious for days before becoming sick and that the virus survives for long periods, relatively speaking, in the air and on surfaces. That’s pretty hard to defend against when you don’t know it’s coming...or you are being lied to.
There is no pint in discussing changes to how NYC is organized and operates. It is going to be impervious to attempts to change it. Okay, very highly resistant with whiney Bill and AOC in front defending the status quo.
It will also be interesting to read the final results of Sweden’s “We’re not going to do anything different from the flu” approach. That will provide a lot of new data for the disease modelers to study and factor into the algorithms.
pint = point
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