The 2018 Election-Night Scorecard

National Journal - Hat tip - Instanpundit ^ | 10/16/18 | Josh Kraushaar

[jocon307]

Election Day is just under three weeks away, and the contours of the political landscape are growing clearer. Democrats are poised to make major gains in the suburbs, putting them in commanding position to retake the House majority. The biggest unknown is whether Democrats will ride a huge anti-Trump tidal wave, or whether late Republican engagement can limit their losses.

In the Senate, the fight over Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court confirmation nationalized the election in the red-state battlegrounds, significantly boosting the fortunes of several GOP challengers. Last month, Democrats looked like they could cut into the GOP’s razor-thin 51-49 majority in the upper chamber; now Republicans are well-positioned to expand their advantage. But the difference between Republicans netting one seat and picking up three is significant, and will go a long way in determining whether Democrats can win back control of the upper chamber in two years. If Democrats win back the presidency in 2020, having the Senate is crucial to their ability to get anything done.

For a sense of the political temperature, I will be closely watching five House and Senate races to get an early read on which party holds the upper hand. Most are concentrated in the early time zones, but there’s one Western race that will speak volumes about whether the national environment will trump candidate quality.

[jocon307]

I thought this was *fairly* even-handed article that Freepers might find interesting. Our author makes a good case for why his 5 chosen races will be good indicators of how the election, in general, will go. That is the meat of the piece, but you'll have to click the link, I've just posted the intro paragraphs here. Per the website this piece is available for free through 10/23/18.

I have to hit the hay at this time, but will definitely check in again tomorrow.

[UCANSEE2]

I PREDICT.... that 50% of the people listed on the ballots will win (+/- 2% margin of error).

[laplata]

“Democrats are poised to make major gains in the suburbs”,

We keep hearing about Dem gains in the suburbs. I see the opposite. Maybe I’m wrong.

[nopardons]

Not really “even-handed”; since the GOP is going to gain Senate seats, that means that most people would have to split their votes, which is NOT going to happen. Why would vote for GOP Senators and NOT also vote for GOP House seat candidates as well?

[MNJohnnie]

her Democrats will ride a huge anti-Trump tidal wave,

Read to there and realized it just another Media clown trying just re-writing what his DNC handler are saying to him. There is no "huge anti Trump" wave. That is a media manufactured myth not demonstrated in the polling.

[MNJohnnie]

Easy read election night. How Nj and Fla senate races go will tell us a lot. Dems lose Gov and Senate in FL and the Senate in NJ and they are in for a very long night

[napscoordinator]

I don’t get how david brat is in trouble. I thought everyone wanted him to get rid of cantor. So they go from a RINO to conservative to a liberal in 4 years????? Doesn’t compute.

[mrsmith]

Onama packed the Fourth District courts which imposed Dem-favored redistricting in 2016. Took away his base.
Dems didn’t try hard in 2016 but are going all-out this time.

[Ceebass]

I don’t get how david brat is in trouble. I thought everyone wanted him to get rid of cantor. So they go from a RINO to conservative to a liberal in 4 years????? Doesn’t compute.////

When Terry Mccaulif was gov he got the courts to gerrymander VA in favor of the rats. Brat’s 7th district had GOP rural areas chopped and rat suburbs added. It’s a competitive district now.

ALso the rat raised 4 million in the last quarter, 3 times Brat’s total. The rats hate Brat, they’re coming after him with everything they’ve got.

[jeannineinsd]

1. Kentucky-06: Rep. Andy Barr (R) vs. Amy McGrath (D)
2. Indiana Senate: Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) vs. Mike Braun (R)
3. Virginia-07: Rep. Dave Brat (R) vs. Abigail Spanberger (D)
4. Florida-27: Donna Shalala (D) vs. Maria Elvira Salazar (R)
5. Arizona Senate: Rep. Martha McSally (R) vs. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D)

I will look back at this on election night.

[ncalburt]

This DC left wing rag spits out all the Dem talking points.
More clues less DC. Dem operatives spouting the Cnn/ Msdnc brain dead garbage . Who funds all these Dem first groups ?

[Lean-Right]

The red giant has yet to respond
as most conservatives don’t telegraph
their political standings. I can
almost guarantee, that most all able
bodied true blue patriots will vote,
knowing what’s at stake. It’s the blue
side with their shenanigans, that will
try to cheat and steal their way to
winning seats.

[MuttTheHoople]

You, sir, are a regular Nostradamus. Could you give me the Megamillion numbers for tonight?

[ripnbang]

It’s the math...Senators are voted on statewide, Reps congressional district wide. There may be many suburban or urban districts that Dems win, but that’s only a percentage of the overall state vote (and may be a small percentage depending on who actually comes out to vote - look at the liberal loon who won the district in NYC where only about 10% of registered voters came out to vote - but she still won). So it’s not about splitting their votes, it really comes down to turnout.

[jocon307]

Yes, definitely. Hugin is really a bit of a dope, he went WAY WAY out of his WAY to alienate Trump supporters in his first ad, but now he’s laid off that.

But I came home the other night and told hubby, who can be a reluctant voter, I’m voting election day and you’re coming with me. And he said: NO, YOU’RE COMING WITH ME!! These people s*ck, Menendez has to go!

So, I hope there’s millions just like him out there. He’s never like this, ever.

[jocon307]

“Why would vote for GOP Senators and NOT also vote for GOP House seat candidates as well?”

I’m not smart enough to know if that holds up mathematically!