Posted on 09/12/2018 1:53:29 PM PDT by NautiNurse
The National Hurricane Center has been issuing advisories for Hurricane Florence since August 30. The five day "Cone of Uncertainty" archive progression since Aug. 30 may be found here. As the super-size storm named Florence approached the U.S. Atlantic Coast, stories abound of people who are refusing to evacuate barrier islands.
The 82nd Airborne has relocated all of its assets, while FEMA is using Fort Bragg as a major staging area for post-storm supplies, including meals, water and cots. Fort Jackson (Columbia SC) has cancelled events including basic training graduation to prepare for military and civilian evacuees from coastal locations.
While hurricane preparations are rushed to completion, some stores are closing for lack of hurricane supplies inventory. Smart phone app Gas Buddy provides updates for gasoline availability along evacuation routes.
Wave heights to 83 ft. were recorded while Hurricane Florence churned 435 miles from Wilmington, NC. Storm surge is predicted to reach 6-13 ft along the coastline to the N of landfall. Steering currents are forecast to collapse at or near landfall, resulting in Florence meandering for days. This is expected to result in up to 40 inches of rainfall in isolated areas in the Carolinas, and up to a foot of rain in the Appalachian Mountains.
Tropical Storm Isaac: The government of France has issued Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches for the Lesser Antilles.
Invest 95L: The National Hurricane Center predicts 70% chance of development in the Gulf of Mexico. Limited forecast models, satellite graphics and GOM buoy info are available for Invest 95L below.
Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.
Local Weather: |
I apologize for my comment. Best wishes and I hope you and all the people in the path will fare well.
There's close to that many reactors at Savannah River. Just because they aren't running doesn't mean there's not a lot of radioactive material on site.
And that's just what the'll tell us about.
It makes me very happy that some of the forecast wind speed is down somewhat. But there are still tornadoes possible that can spin off Florence, aren’t there?
Tornadoes are always a concern with hurricanes.
Yes they are.
Some said we had a small tornado hit Raleigh during Hurricane Fran. Whether it was a tornado or the 80 MPH winds, all I know is Raleigh looked like bomb blasts had hit town.
Praying hard still.
Hams and shortwave listeners: The Hurricane Watch Net will begin fulltime operations at 9AM EDT on 14.325Mhz and 7.268 Mhz. With propagation as it is, 40 meters will probably be the primary frequency.
https://twitter.com/MikeTheiss/status/1040038096052674561
video of Ivan’s surge on pcola beach.
(not replying to you directly)
Hope you are wrong, hankering for crab cakes.
Sitting here in soggy western PA, worried sick about how Florence might affect our beach front resort condo in North Myrtle Beach. We had planned to visit and still hope to visit it after the 22nd. Anyone who has any info at any time about this area, please freep mail me. Will be monitoring local government personnel.
I wonder if people that evacuated will go back home, now.
I wouldn’t, but then I still have a bit of sense left (imho ;-)
Here, a local power line company with 16 bucket trucks left New Brunswick, Canada,for North Carolina 2 days ago.
Today they were sent home again by the emergency coordinators. They must figure the storm will not have catastrophic wind damage to power lines.
Canadian crews are still on stand-by to be called if needed.
Ham ping
40” is a lot of water. Harvey in Texas was 60”. Couple that with wind...and the ground being supersaturated. I feel for these residents.
Praying for all in the path of Florence.
Marines at Camp Lejuene aren’t being evacuated either
CAT 2
874
WTNT41 KNHC 130249
TCDAT1
Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 55
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018
Satellite data and reports from Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
significant changes in the structure of Florence and the
environment near the storm since the last advisory. Microwave
satellite imagery shows that the convection on the southern side of
the storm has been disrupted, and reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate the eyewall now wraps less than
50 percent of the way around the center. The aircraft also reports
that the hurricane again has concentric wind maxima, the inner at a
radius 20-30 n mi and the outer at 50-60 n mi. The convection seems
to have been affected by 20-25 kt of southerly vertical wind shear,
most of which appears to be due to strong winds between 200-250 mb
seen in dropsonde data from the NOAA G-IV jet. The central
pressure has risen to 957 mb, and the maximum 700-mb flight-level
winds reported so far are 103 kt. Based on the latter data, the
initial intensity reduced to a probably generous 95 kt.
The initial motion is 315/15. During the next 12-36 hours, the
hurricane is expected to turn toward the west-northwest and west
with a decrease in forward speed as it moves into an area of
weakening steering currents near and over the southeastern United
States. The new forecast track now brings the center onshore in
southern North Carolina near the 36 h point. After landfall, the
cyclone should move slowly westward to west-southwestward through
the 72 h point, then it should turn northwestward to northward by
the end of the forecast period as it moves through the Appalachian
Mountains. The new forecast track lies between the HCCA corrected
consensus model and the other consensus aids, and it is nudged just
a little to the north of the previous track.
The dynamical models forecast the current shear to subside after
6-12 h as Florence moves farther from an upper-level low currently
near northeastern Florida. This, combined with sea surface
temperatures near 29C, would allow a last chance for strengthening
before landfall. However, the storm structure, particularly the
large outer wind maxima, would likely be slow to respond to the
more favorable environment. The pre-landfall part of the intensity
forecast thus calls for little change in strength, but given the
uncertainties the confidence in this is low. After landfall,
Florence should gradually weaken during the 36-48 h period while
the center is near the coast, then weaken more quickly when the
center moves farther inland.
While Florence has weakened below major hurricane intensity, the
wind field of the hurricane continues to grow in size. This
evolution will produce storm surges similar to that of a more
intense, but smaller, hurricane, and thus the storm surge values
seen in the previous advisory are still valid. The threat of
rainfall has also not diminished, and these impacts will cover a
large area regardless of exactly where the center of Florence moves.
Key Messages:
1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along
portions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and
a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area. All
interests in these areas should complete preparations and follow any
advice given by local officials.
2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged
significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas
and the southern and central Appalachians late this week into early
next week, as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the
coast and moves inland.
3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Warning
is in effect. Strong winds could also spread inland into portions
of the Carolinas.
4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East
Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this
week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0300Z 32.0N 73.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 33.1N 75.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 33.9N 76.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 34.2N 78.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/0000Z 34.1N 78.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/0000Z 33.5N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 17/0000Z 34.0N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/0000Z 37.5N 83.5W 20 KT 25 M
You and your family are in my prayers...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
