Posted on 09/07/2017 8:09:47 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Dangerous Category 5 Hurricane Irma had a devastating impact on islands in the Caribbean.
Hurricane and Storm surge watches were issued Thursday morning for South Florida. The Florida Keys began evacuating visitors and residents, followed by flood zones in Miami and Miami Beach. Sarasota FL declared a local state of emergency Thursday morning.
Polk County FL Sheriff Grady Judd said Wednesday that law enforcement authorities would check the identities of people who turn up at shelters--and take to jail anyone found to have an active arrest warrant. “If you go to a shelter for Irma and you have a warrant, we’ll gladly escort you to the safe and secure shelter called the Polk County Jail... “If you have a warrant, turn yourself in to the jail — it’s a secure shelter.” Judd also posted that sex offenders and sex predators would not be admitted to the shelters. "We cannot and we will not have innocent children in a shelter with sexual offenders & predators. Period." Judd's statements unleashed a liberal firestorm via Twitter.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Melbourne, FL
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar Jacksonville, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Charleston, SC
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Wilmington, NC, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Morehead City, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Norfolk, VA
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Buoy Data NC/SC/GA
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
Which is why I don’t like very generalize, government “mandatory” evacuations.
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Nobody likes anything “mandatory”, myself included. I’m coming from this with a different perspective - that of police/fire/EMS. They tend to be viewed as a unit/government, but they are individual people too with homes, families, property at risk. Being “essential” personnel, they HAVE to be on the job and their lives are at risk.
What many do not realize is that at a certain wind mph, it is not safe for the fire trucks, rescue equipment, manpower to be out and about and they have to stop responding to calls. As someone who has fielded calls from desperate people (during a hurricane), I can assure you it’s pretty awful when there is nothing you can do to help them .... whether they were stubborn & stayed put on their own or got caught in circumstances that put them in danger, when someone is pleading for help because their life is at risk, all thoughts of “self-inflicted” tend to fall by the wayside.
My point with all of this rambling is that the authorities make the best decisions they can to be in a position to truly help people if they need it, but certain areas/conditions prevent them from helping or put the lives at risk (always at risk, but this situation is to an unacceptable level) of those tasked with rescues and providing help. They make the calls on ‘mandatory’ evacs which, if nothing else, puts those in the areas being evacuated ‘on notice’ that help cannot and is not coming. People ultimately make their own choices, but the odds of injury/death go up substantially if mandatory evac orders are ignored.
What if the mandatory evac order doesn’t ‘verify’ as being necessary because the storm track changes? Those that have left often get pissed off & start blaming the authorities because it was “unnecessary”, but the fire/police/EMS are relieved when that occurs because there will be no (or fewer) desperate calls, injuries, or loss of life.
Obviously, you’ve got respect for storm surges (amazing the number of people that do not) and you are totally correct that “Everyone needs to make their own judgements based on their own tolerance levels, special needs, health factors, etc,etc, ect...” My only issue is that for some people, they only learn through “experience” and sometimes that experience proves deadly the first time. I always liked what Will Rogers said (& find it to be true):
There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence for themselves.
I would change “men” to “people” because women can be just as stubborn, if not more so .... the only caveat being they don’t pee on electric fences the way a man might. :-)
My 2 cents .... from my own experience. YMMV.
Irma travelled across a Bay along the Cuban coast. Then the eye contacted land again on the western side of Bay and it took a jog or bounce NW. Will see if that was just a dead cat bounce or the real move NW beginning.
LOL You know what I mean. MAN MADE global warming. If you created summer then you can probably quit your day job.
I could not have said it better. People and animals are unpredictable and predictable in a crisis. Staying on guard and alert for long periods of time during these times in sheer exhaustion.
Yep. Real scientists are the ones we don’t hear from often enough, though.
They’re too busy committing acts of real science! Bless them. If their research conclusions go against the approved template, crickets.
THANK YOU!!!!!
We have to go out for the day. We just wanted to offer our heartfelt prayers for you and everyone with you during this awful storm, FRiend. Hope you all stay safe and don’t suffer any property damage.
The thing about the storm surges is that people underestimate the damage water can do.
Yes, it can flow around things and you can swim through it, but water is basically incompressible. Think of belly flops and how much fun they are.
When a wave of water slams into a building, the water isn’t going to give much. It’s going to make a great battering ram.
Exactly.
Well aware—Open sea sailor-— not a “keyhole” viewer. Take in multiple factors not on some geek’s billion dollar model reliance— things like sea surface pressure readings from the bridge, sea water temperature to depth, surface wind speed/gusts. Not relying on aircraft dropsondes, which don’t “fall” very well as high tech as they are. The hubris of high tech is tragic, and demonstrative of the intangible nature of intuitive and cognitive capabilities of man. Like being able to fly a plane by GPS flummoxing some tech weenie.
This is a big hurricane, pushing a wall of water even as it is losing strength and may revive. Things change... all the time. And they can’t always be quantified, despite one’s desire and reliance on tech to achieve a modicum of certitude. Damage— yeah that happens, to things & mostly to people-whether in great numbers (or great expectation poorly built overbuilt communities— no matter), especially to those who cannot restrain their emotions, again out of hubris, to a proper padded room and not visit it on others.
Brother called me from Jax saying it had rained but now sunny ..it was from a storm front...not Irma as you said. Heck there were people walking their dogs on Jax beach!
The thing about the storm surges is that people underestimate the damage water can do.
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Agree. The surge is underestimated. I’ve seen more than a few interstate bridges, rail cars, and large buildings wiped away by storm surges.
With its current trajectory, moving up the west coast above Tampa area, what about storm surge reaching 3 miles in from the gulf about a hour above Tampa?
I know what you mean. My wife's grown kids are going nuts; one NC; one in WI. We are in Sebring in a sturdy home that is as prepared as can be.
Earlier today Al Roker on NBC national news showed a graphic of Irma being a Cat3 storm in central Georgia! Geez!!
This is a serious storm, no joking about it, but there has been way too much hype from some of the MSM types. The FReepers here have a better handle on what is unfolding than they do.
We were laughing (and then not) about the large numbers of pythons (burmese,reticulated, etc) in the Glades, which at last tally on 8-18-17 had come to 500 turned in dead for the FL bounty paid program.
So, what if some of the surely thousands extant pythons become airborne and flop in somebody’s “crib” or de-roofed house, or swimming the urban flooded streets. As said— laughed about it, then stopped. Where’s Samuel L. Jackson for the sequel to snakes on a plane (for the Lord’s sake)?
Bet Cay Sal bank is feeling it
That old lighthouse
My old stomping grounds once upon a time
A grey van just drove past the camera.
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