Posted on 09/07/2017 8:09:47 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Dangerous Category 5 Hurricane Irma had a devastating impact on islands in the Caribbean.
Hurricane and Storm surge watches were issued Thursday morning for South Florida. The Florida Keys began evacuating visitors and residents, followed by flood zones in Miami and Miami Beach. Sarasota FL declared a local state of emergency Thursday morning.
Polk County FL Sheriff Grady Judd said Wednesday that law enforcement authorities would check the identities of people who turn up at shelters--and take to jail anyone found to have an active arrest warrant. “If you go to a shelter for Irma and you have a warrant, we’ll gladly escort you to the safe and secure shelter called the Polk County Jail... “If you have a warrant, turn yourself in to the jail — it’s a secure shelter.” Judd also posted that sex offenders and sex predators would not be admitted to the shelters. "We cannot and we will not have innocent children in a shelter with sexual offenders & predators. Period." Judd's statements unleashed a liberal firestorm via Twitter.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Melbourne, FL
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar Jacksonville, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Charleston, SC
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Wilmington, NC, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Morehead City, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Norfolk, VA
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Buoy Data NC/SC/GA
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
“the great fishing that will be available after the storm stirs them up.”
Yeahboayh. First up is the mangroves with the kayak. That is if the house isn’t totaled. Or I guess if it is too.
Landscape fertilizer is banned in many FL counties until Oct. During the rainy season, the fertilizer is washed away before it can be absorbed.
Normally I'd be inclined to agree with folks saying decay & intensity forecasts are overdone. Yet, system has history & intense core remains pic.twitter.com/1qCqVhFh9e— crankyweatherguy (@crankywxguy) September 9, 2017
Slower winds and slower forward motion. Thanks to the island of Cuba.
I’m in SE Florida. We may be spared. Maybe not. I quit watching the weather channel two or three days ago. Our local stations are much more optimistic. TWC is just “you’re all gonna die” giddy. My relatives up north have only TWC to rely on and it’s freaking them out. So many panicked calls and texts from them that it’s slowing down my prep work.
You aren’t out of the woods either. Stay aware and safe.
Take some meteorology courses.
That will answer your questions.
Then get back to us.
All ECMWF ensembles show significant intensification once #Irma leaves Cuba. Even though storm is slightly weaker, won't be for long. pic.twitter.com/xUCgy4mCTr— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) September 9, 2017
Yes--but expected to strengthen again when moving through the FL Straits.
Climate change is only “ settled science” for liberals who want to control everything and are looking for an excuse to do so.
The real scientists know better.
I agree with everything you said.
I’ve seen “experts” offer explanations for Katrina’s surge but most seem to miss the point. They focus on CAT 3 and 130 MPH wind. They don’t give as much consideration to the storm’s history before going inland. Katrina was very large and a Cat 5 soon before going ashore. The wind may slow but it takes longer for the storm surge to settle back down.
I’ve seen the damage caused by surge — Katrina, Ivan, Camille — so I know I don’t want to be anywhere near a surge. It can cause the most devastation in hurricanes.
And if it is less than 120 MPH, I don’t care to evacuate. Sometimes we just have to guess and hope it’s less than than when it comes ashore. An 80 MPH hurricane in the hot summer isn’t so bad. It’s actually kind of nice.
I also agree that people to make their own judgments concerning evacuation.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 091458
TCDAT1
Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017
The interaction of Irma’s circulation with Cuba has resulted in
some weakening of the hurricane. Data from an Air Force plane
indicate that the maximum winds are now 110 kt. However, once the
circulation moves away from Cuba, restrengthening is forecast and
Irma is expected to remain a very dangerous hurricane for the next 2
days while moving very near the Florida peninsula.
The eye has been moving toward the west or 280 degrees at about 8
kt. The hurricane is about the reach the southwestern portion of
the subtropical high, and the expected turn to the northwest and
north-northwest should begin soon. The track guidance is tightly
packed and takes the hurricane over the Florida Keys and near or
over the Florida Peninsula. The NHC forecast is in the middle of
the guidance envelope and given the good agreement among models, the
confidence in the track forecast is high.
Irma is now under the scope of Key West radar, so hourly updates
will begin at 1600 UTC.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge,
and rainfall hazards to portions of the Bahamas and the north coast
of Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys, through tonight.
2. Irma is expected to make landfall in Florida as an extremely
dangerous major hurricane, bringing life-threatening wind
impacts to much of the state regardless of the exact track of the
center. Wind hazards from Irma are also expected to spread northward
along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina where a Hurricane
Watch has been issued.
3. There is an imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge
flooding in portions of central and southern Florida, including the
Florida Keys, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat
of catastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest
coast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground
level is expected. This is a life-threatening situation and everyone
in these areas should immediately follow any evacuation instructions
from local officials.
4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding.
Total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts
of between 20 and 25 inches, are expected over the Florida Keys, the
Florida peninsula, and southeast Georgia from Saturday through
Monday. Significant river flooding is possible in these areas. Early
next week Irma will also bring periods of heavy rain to much of the
southeast United States where an average of 2 to 6 inches is
forecast, with isolated higher amounts, from North and South
Carolina to Tennessee and eastern Alabama. This includes some
mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding. Residents
throughout the southeast states should remain aware of the flood
threat and stay tuned to forecasts and warnings.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 22.8N 79.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 23.4N 80.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 24.5N 81.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 26.4N 82.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 29.0N 82.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 34.5N 86.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 13/1200Z 36.0N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 14/1200Z 37.0N 88.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
$$
Forecaster Avila
Actually I built about 120 million on various bases in the last 16 years so I can tell you they are built to very strenuous codes and no, there is very little improper construction or materials on the larger projects.
The troop stress with emergency duty is my main concern.
I wonder why there was no mention of the expected wind shear in the forecast discussion. It was included in the 5am discussion.
Two words: Chinese drywall.
You’re kidding right?
Actually it was (aka: Summer)
I'd like to point out that we never have hurricanes in the Winter.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGD1byu7gJc&feature=youtu.be
LIVE video looking from roof top of Two Friends Patio Restaurant toward the corner of Duval and Front Street. Key West Florida.
Great movie— but it was Bogie and Edgar G. Robinson and Lionel Barrymore (oh, and Lauren Bacall) that “drove” that movie. And Claire Trevor.
“No On really knows... that is tragic and unacceptable.”
But some things are more predictable than others. The tides are predictable, the sunrise and sunset are predictable, because the rotation of the Earth has been consistent for billions of years, and is unlikely to be different tomorrow or next week.
Weather is NOT consistent and therefore highly unpredictable. It’s not the scientists fault that some things in nature are random while others have a pattern.
I think the problem is the public’s absurd expectation that if scientists can accomplish amazing thing A, then they must be able to accomplish amazing thing B.
How many times have I heard the lamentation “they put a man on the moon but they can’t even [fill in the blank].”
Well, some things in nature have a repeating pattern and are predictable, others (like weather) don’t, and therefore are not.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
