I agree with everything you said.
I’ve seen “experts” offer explanations for Katrina’s surge but most seem to miss the point. They focus on CAT 3 and 130 MPH wind. They don’t give as much consideration to the storm’s history before going inland. Katrina was very large and a Cat 5 soon before going ashore. The wind may slow but it takes longer for the storm surge to settle back down.
I’ve seen the damage caused by surge — Katrina, Ivan, Camille — so I know I don’t want to be anywhere near a surge. It can cause the most devastation in hurricanes.
And if it is less than 120 MPH, I don’t care to evacuate. Sometimes we just have to guess and hope it’s less than than when it comes ashore. An 80 MPH hurricane in the hot summer isn’t so bad. It’s actually kind of nice.
I also agree that people to make their own judgments concerning evacuation.
With its current trajectory, moving up the west coast above Tampa area, what about storm surge reaching 3 miles in from the gulf about a hour above Tampa?