Posted on 09/04/2017 2:02:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse
While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.
FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
Wait til it hits Cuba...could bounce a lot from that. Along with the Norths Jet stream dropping...can change the equation....
In a few days, you can look back at this misrepresentation of what the data shows as propaganda. The gov't/press thinks that is their job.
Another self-proclaimed expert who *knows* the inner workings of the NHC.
I have news for you. Meteorologists care more about people and their safety than they do about politics and *lying* to people.
If they warn people and the hurricane shifts track, as they do, they are castigated.
If they didn't warn people and they got hit, they'd be held liable for their deaths in the eyes of the public.
It's a lose/lose situation. They are damned if they do and damned if they don't by all the armchair meteorologists out there.
The logistics of evac’ing FL are dreadful if the natives are overly calmed by the Ern spaghetti shift, compared to running for the hills from GA and up the coast. Matthew missing might lull too many back to sleep. Her people are more vulnerable if Irma swings back West.
The NHC will have considerably more confidence for Irma impacts on CONUS Thursday (tomorrow), per Ed Rappaport.
I was underneath it with six of my guys trying to hold the wall posts down. The wet canvas bulging in was like a lister bag full of water and then the ropes staking the post tops down broke, we were all knocked flat and tried to hold onto the edge of the tent.
We held for about 30 seconds and then it was blown from out hands. We were on the edge of the bluff and stuff went down the bluff and over the bluff top.
One of my Spec-4 cooks got up and went and sat on the roof of the home-made kitchen truck, shell shocked.
__________
I am going to suggest a different philosophy - which you might consider 'nuanced', but there's an important distinction here, for your 'propaganda' characterization suggests intentional misinformation, and I don't believe that's the case at all.
The NHC's role - and I certainly hope this is their attitude - is about public safety. As a result, they *should* be quick to warn and slow to declare an area to be safe.
That MUST be the case when uncertainty reigns.
Most forecasts of general weather are off by timing, miles, and scope of impact... but we don't care as much because we can roll with those changes routinely.
However, a hurricane kills people much more easily and thus those errors are scrutinized and magnified all the more. Forecasters can't really afford to be wrong, but the nature of the beast means that 'wrong' is still in play.
Ergo - an over-abundance of caution, for being wrong in this game means that many can be caught unawares.
Being wrong means more loss of life.
If I see a freight train bearing down on someone, I warn them.
I don't stand back and watch it happen worried that they'll call me an alarmist for doing so.
"CNN - 4 of the strongest buildings on the Caribbean island of St. Martin have been destroyed by #HurricaneIrma"
“Any comparison with the early track of the Great New England Hurricane of 1938?”
I actually remember that one-——I was 5 years old and the noise was terrifying——and a window blew in.
.
Location...18.2N 64.0W
About 65 MI...ESE of St. Thomas
About 140 MI...E if San Juan Puerto Rico
Maximum Sustained Winds...185 MPH
Present Movement...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
Minimum Central Pressure...918 MB...27.50 Inches
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
Last captured before it stops working: LIVE WEBCAM Coverage St. Martin/Sint Maarten!! Hurricane Irma
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgS2hMZAsek
Date
(AST)
Temp
(F)
Wind
Direction
Wind
Speed
(MPH)
Station
Pressure
(inches)
Altimeter
Setting
(inches)
Water
Temp
(F)
06 Sep 10:24 am 82 29.72 29.72 82
06 Sep 10:18 am 82 29.72 29.72 82
06 Sep 10:12 am 79 29.72 29.72 82
06 Sep 10:06 am 81 29.71 29.71 82
06 Sep 10:00 am 80 29.71 29.71 82
06 Sep 9:54 am 78 29.72 29.72 82
06 Sep 9:48 am 76 29.72 29.72 82
06 Sep 9:42 am 76 29.72 29.72 82
06 Sep 9:36 am 76 29.72 29.72 82
06 Sep 9:30 am 77 29.71 29.71 82
06 Sep 9:24 am 76 29.70 29.70 82
06 Sep 9:18 am 76 29.70 29.70 82
06 Sep 9:12 am 77 29.69 29.69 82
06 Sep 9:06 am 76 29.69 29.69 82
06 Sep 9:00 am 78 29.68 29.68 82
06 Sep 8:54 am 79 29.67 29.67 82
06 Sep 8:48 am 81 29.67 29.67 82
06 Sep 8:42 am 80 29.66 29.66 82
06 Sep 8:36 am 80 29.65 29.65 82
06 Sep 8:30 am 80 29.65 29.65 82
06 Sep 8:24 am 80 29.65 29.65 82
06 Sep 8:18 am 79 29.64 29.64 82
06 Sep 8:12 am 78 29.63 29.63 82
06 Sep 8:06 am 79 29.63 29.63 82
06 Sep 8:00 am 78 29.62 29.62 82
06 Sep 7:54 am 78 29.61 29.61 82
06 Sep 7:48 am 79 29.61 29.61 82
06 Sep 7:42 am 79 29.59 29.59 82
06 Sep 7:36 am 78 29.58 29.58 82
06 Sep 7:30 am 77 29.59 29.59 82
06 Sep 7:24 am 76 29.58 29.58 82
06 Sep 7:18 am 76 29.58 29.58 82
06 Sep 7:12 am 76 29.58 29.58 82
06 Sep 7:06 am 79 29.56 29.56 82
06 Sep 7:00 am 83 29.55 29.55 82
06 Sep 6:54 am 83 29.55 29.55 82
06 Sep 6:48 am 83 29.54 29.54 82
06 Sep 6:42 am 82 29.53 29.53 82
06 Sep 6:36 am 81 29.52 29.52 82
06 Sep 6:30 am 82 29.51 29.51 82
06 Sep 6:24 am 82 29.50 29.50 82
06 Sep 6:18 am 83 29.49 29.49 82
06 Sep 6:12 am 83 29.48 29.48 82
06 Sep 6:06 am 83 29.48 29.48 82
06 Sep 6:00 am 83 29.47 29.47 82
06 Sep 5:54 am 83 29.46 29.46 82
06 Sep 5:48 am 83 29.46 29.46 82
06 Sep 5:42 am 83 29.45 29.45 82
06 Sep 5:36 am 84 29.44 29.44 82
06 Sep 5:30 am 84 29.44 29.44 82
06 Sep 5:24 am 84 29.43 29.43 82
06 Sep 5:18 am 84 29.42 29.42 82
06 Sep 5:12 am 84 29.41 29.41 82
06 Sep 5:06 am 84 29.39 29.39 82
06 Sep 5:00 am 84 29.36 29.36 82
06 Sep 4:54 am 84 29.36 29.36 82
06 Sep 4:48 am 84 29.36 29.36 82
06 Sep 4:42 am 83 29.35 29.35 82
06 Sep 4:36 am 83 29.34 29.34 82
06 Sep 4:30 am 83 29.33 29.33 82
06 Sep 4:24 am 83 29.31 29.31 82
06 Sep 4:18 am 82 29.29 29.29 82
06 Sep 4:12 am 82 29.28 29.28 82
06 Sep 4:06 am 80 29.26 29.26 83
06 Sep 4:00 am 78 29.24 29.24 83
06 Sep 3:54 am 78 29.21 29.21 83
06 Sep 3:48 am 79 29.20 29.20 83
06 Sep 3:42 am 79 29.16 29.16 83
06 Sep 3:36 am 78 29.12 29.12 83
06 Sep 3:30 am 78 29.08 29.08 83
06 Sep 3:24 am 78 29.03 29.03 83
06 Sep 3:18 am 78 28.98 28.98 83
06 Sep 3:12 am 78 28.93 28.93 83
06 Sep 3:06 am 78 28.87 28.87 83
06 Sep 3:00 am 78 28.79 28.79 83
06 Sep 2:54 am 78 28.71 28.71 83
06 Sep 2:48 am 79 28.61 28.61 84
06 Sep 2:42 am 78 28.48 28.48 84
06 Sep 2:36 am 78 28.36 28.36 84
06 Sep 2:30 am 78 28.18 28.18 84
06 Sep 2:24 am 77 CALM 28.01 28.01 84
06 Sep 2:18 am 78 CALM 27.74 27.74 84
06 Sep 2:12 am 78 CALM 27.49 27.49 84
06 Sep 2:06 am 78 CALM 27.34 27.34 84
06 Sep 2:00 am 79 CALM 27.24 27.24 84
06 Sep 1:54 am 82 CALM 84
06 Sep 1:48 am 81 CALM 84
06 Sep 1:42 am 81 CALM 84
06 Sep 1:36 am 80 CALM 83
06 Sep 1:30 am 79 CALM 83
06 Sep 1:24 am 78 CALM 83
06 Sep 1:18 am 78 CALM 27.20 27.20 82
06 Sep 1:12 am 77 CALM 27.24 27.24 82
06 Sep 1:06 am 76 CALM 27.31 27.31 82
06 Sep 1:00 am 76 NNW 108G155 27.40 27.40 83
06 Sep 12:54 am 76 NW 118G154 27.53 27.53 83
06 Sep 12:48 am 76 NW 107G131 27.73 27.73 83
06 Sep 12:42 am 76 NW 95G127 28.02 28.02 83
06 Sep 12:36 am 76 NNW 91G118 28.22 28.22 83
06 Sep 12:30 am 76 NNW 81G105 28.41 28.41 83
06 Sep 12:24 am 76 NNW 72G99 28.53 28.53 84
06 Sep 12:18 am 76 NNW 70G95 28.65 28.65 84
06 Sep 12:12 am 76 NNW 62G87 28.74 28.74 84
06 Sep 12:06 am 76 NNW 56G84 28.83 28.83 84
06 Sep 12:00 am 77 NNW 55G74 28.88 28.88 84
05 Sep 11:54 pm 78 NNW 55G82 28.95 28.95 84
05 Sep 11:48 pm 77 NNW 51G77 29.01 29.01 84
05 Sep 11:42 pm 77 N 51G72 29.06 29.06 84
05 Sep 11:36 pm 77 NNW 48G75 29.10 29.10 84
05 Sep 11:30 pm 78 N 42G60 29.15 29.15 84
05 Sep 11:24 pm 77 N 42G64 29.20 29.20 85
05 Sep 11:18 pm 79 N 41G61 29.23 29.23 85
05 Sep 11:12 pm 79 N 41G62 29.24 29.24 85
05 Sep 11:06 pm 79 N 41G62 29.26 29.26 85
05 Sep 11:00 pm 78 N 38G59 29.29 29.29 85
05 Sep 10:54 pm 78 N 44G60 29.32 29.32 85
05 Sep 10:48 pm 79 N 32G49 29.34 29.34 85
05 Sep 10:42 pm 79 N 28G51 29.36 29.36 85
05 Sep 10:36 pm 79 N 31G49 29.37 29.37 85
05 Sep 10:30 pm 79 N 37G59 29.39 29.39 85
Last night I was watching the weather buoy off Barbuda. At 1:00 it went to 108 MPH with gusts to 155 and then the buoy started saying “Calm” and never came back on. I suspect its wind speed apparatus blew out. Still reporting only pressure and water temp this AM
here is the link for that buoy.
it now appears only partially reporting.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=BARA9&num=12&raw=0
Irma is moving west-northwestward or 285/14 kt. A strong high
pressure ridge extending from the central Atlantic westward is
expected to keep Irma moving west-northwestward during the next 2
to 3 days. The track guidance is in good agreement during this
period and the NHC track is along the southern edge of the guidance
envelope in best agreement with the ECMWF and HFIP corrected
consensus model. After that time, a shortwave trough moving
southward over the east-central United States is expected to erode
the western portion of the ridge. As a result, Irma is forecast to
turn northwestward and northward, but there is still a fair amount
of uncertainty regarding the exact timing and location of
recurvature. The NHC forecast has been shifted eastward to be in
better agreement with the latest model guidance, however it should
be noted that there are numerous GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members
that take Irma over and/or west of Florida. The updated NHC track
is in best agreement with the latest ECMWF ensemble mean. Users are
reminded that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are
about 175 and 225 statue miles, respectively.
Yea, I had heard that too and posted it at # 1253, which confused me because I thought it had sustained winds at cat 5, not gusts at a 5. It’s sustained winds were around 100, which is still high. I’m sure the highest winds are right at the eye wall.
That data post is very difficult to decipher due to formatting. Perhaps a link directly to the source would help?
I wonder if anyone survived?
Now they’re tweaked the track to have it pass directly over my house in Delray Beach... yikes
Are there any local evac statements for your area?
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