2012 (ballots cast, not yet counted) Totals from Election Eve 2012
Absentee Ballot - REPs led by 79,000
In-Person Early Voting - DEMs led by 247,000
Combined Early voting - DEMs led by 168,000
Obama won Florida in 2012 by 74,000 votes
2016 (ballots cast, not yet counted)
Absentee Ballot - REPs lead by 66,679
In-Person Early Voting - DEMs lead by 154,691
Combined Early voting - DEMs lead by 88,012
Well this is my second to last Florida update. One more update tomorrow. Tomorrow’s numbers won’t change too much. Just a few more absentee ballots will show up. Probably less than 3-4,000 total.
The DEMs had a great day yesterday and increased their overall early vote lead to 88,000. They led by 168,000 on Election Eve 2012. So we improved by 80,000 over 2012!!! And Obama only won the state by 74,000.
Republicans will win the Election Day vote and win Florida. Sticking with my prediction of 230,000 and 2.5%.
Total (DEMs + REPs + INDYs) in-person voting is 3,874,942
Total (DEMs + REPs + INDYs) absentee voting is 2,549,653 (plus another 3-4000 tomorrow morning).
Total early voting is 6,424,595
Sometimes, when polls close in a state, the state will report vote numbers pretty quickly for early voting. So if you see big numbers for Florida soon after the polls close and then a long delay before the precinct vote comes in, look at the numbers and compare against our stats.
If the totals are around 3.8 million, that would be the in-person only voting. Compare the DEM lead 154,691.
If the totals are around 6.4 million, that would be the combined early voting. Compare the DEM lead to 88,012.
This can give us a clue to how crossovers and Indys are breaking.
Important fact: Rep leaning counties were not open Sunday for voting, but Dem leaning counties were - so I have heard.
We see the numbers, but did the RATs vote for Hillary?
what is the indie vote ??
what the numbers ?
It is going to be close. I wish we had kept the DEM lead closer to 30,000. That being said, if Trump’s outperforms Romney among independents, he may squeak out a win.
The large turnout among unaffiliated voters in NC, puts NC somewhat in the same vote. It would seem to me a surge in independent voters is to Trump’s advantage.
Obama won 50% of the Independent vote in FL in 2012, going to be important for Trump to do reduce that.
Dems announced in 2012 they had won FL a few days ahead of the election based on early voting. They were right. They have not done that this time. Dems are now saying it is a 1% race either way, so I think they know they have lost in FL.
However, not happy about Hillsborough voting. It shows the Dems get out the vote effort may be better than expected.
I could wish we’d held a little better. Hopefully the polling giving Trump a big advantage with I’s will carry him through.
So if you work from this number, and you assume all other things are equal (which they are not) Trump wins by a small margin...
However, we know all things are not equal... if you work from these numbers out... Trump not only wins Florida, but he wins it quite handily.
Of course, early voting is not a direct correlation to election day voting.. but its hard to imagine a world where Hillary meets or beats 2012 turnout on election day, or a world where Trump doesn’t beat 2012 election day turnout.
How in in the heck did this county end up with early voting? (rhetorical question, although I am curious as to who thought this was a good idea as it just adds confusion and chaos to the process).
Vote Trump Floridians!! We are counting on you so we can Drain the Swamp!!
So does anyone know the internals of some of the major FL polls? The only one I saw that gave the weighted demographics was the Remington Research one which had Trump +4, and was using 40R/40D/20I as the expected turnout. They had Trump +13 among independents.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_Research_Florida_October_31_2016.pdf
Those guys might be onto something as right now its:
R 2472k [38.48%]
D 2560k [39.85%]
O 1392k [21.67%]
I have looked at some of the other polls on RCP and they are sampling D+6 or so but I’m assuming they re-weight to something a little more realistic for FL. I just don’t know what that is.
Regardless if Trump can win independents by even 3%-5% he should pull this one out.
New Trafalgar poll of Fla:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitUTc5eVFiWERJRFE/view
I am not a mathematician nor a statistician, but the Florida numbers don’t look bad at all to me. My back-of-envelope calculations:
BEST CASE scenario for Hillary: assume she actually has an 88,000 vote lead right now (assume 88,000 Dem > Rep early vote lead translates perfectly to a Clinton > Trump lead, and early voting Indies were evenly split); AND there are only 2 million voters are left to vote tomorrow (making the total Florida vote around 8.5 MM, as in 2015). I don’t think Hillary can hope for much better than this.
EVEN WITH ALL THAT, Trump would only need to win the election-day voters by about 4.5% to win the state. If you believe the polls showing him winning election-day voters big, this is not a problem.
NEXT BEST CASE for Hillary: same as above, but assume there are 3 million election-day voters left (making total Florida vote around 9.5MM), as has been estimated.
In that scenario, Trump would only need to win election-day voters by around 3% to win the state.
CONSERVATIVE CASE FOR EARLY-VOTER SPLITS: assume there was a net +2 crossover Dem to Rep among early voters AND Trump won early voting Indies 52/48:
In this scenario, Trump currently leads among all early voters by around 65,000 votes (around 1%)
LESS CONSERVATIVE CASE FOR EARLY-VOTER SPLITS: assume net +5 crossover Dem to Rep among early voters AND Trump won early-voting Indies 55/45:
In this scenario, Trump currently leads by around 300,000 votes (around 4.5%)