Well this is my second to last Florida update. One more update tomorrow. Tomorrow’s numbers won’t change too much. Just a few more absentee ballots will show up. Probably less than 3-4,000 total.
The DEMs had a great day yesterday and increased their overall early vote lead to 88,000. They led by 168,000 on Election Eve 2012. So we improved by 80,000 over 2012!!! And Obama only won the state by 74,000.
Republicans will win the Election Day vote and win Florida. Sticking with my prediction of 230,000 and 2.5%.
Total (DEMs + REPs + INDYs) in-person voting is 3,874,942
Total (DEMs + REPs + INDYs) absentee voting is 2,549,653 (plus another 3-4000 tomorrow morning).
Total early voting is 6,424,595
Sometimes, when polls close in a state, the state will report vote numbers pretty quickly for early voting. So if you see big numbers for Florida soon after the polls close and then a long delay before the precinct vote comes in, look at the numbers and compare against our stats.
If the totals are around 3.8 million, that would be the in-person only voting. Compare the DEM lead 154,691.
If the totals are around 6.4 million, that would be the combined early voting. Compare the DEM lead to 88,012.
This can give us a clue to how crossovers and Indys are breaking.
Hillsborough County, Florida has voted for the winning president in 21 out of the last 22 elections. Pretty amazing when you think about it.
Obama won Hillsborough by 36,000 votes in 2012. With the big 28,000 early vote lead this year, Clinton has a good chance to win Hillsborough.
After this election, Hillsborough’s record will be 21 out of the last 23 elections.
These numbers add up to almost 80% of the total votes cast in 2012. What do you project Election Day turnout to be?
These numbers add up to almost 80% of the total votes cast in 2012. What do you project Election Day turnout to be?
Charlie Gasperino was just saying that the democrats focused on the Puerto Ricans moving into Florida so much that they greeted them at the airports with voter registration.