Posted on 11/06/2016 7:13:23 PM PST by GilGil
I certainly hope the Dornsife poll is accurate as of today, and Trump wins by 6 points or more. But there is no way he breaks even with Hispanics. That has never happened since the Hispanic vote became large enough to matter, and so long as mass immigration persists, it never will happen. Most are natural Democrats.
Considering the extreme media bias against him, Trump would do well to win a quarter of the Hispanic vote.
41%? That would be a record for a Republican. That’s highly unlikely.
At this point I got Trump winning all Romney states plus FL, OH and IA. This puts him 259 EV’s, just 11 short of 270
My toss ups are MI, MN, NV, CO, NM, PA, VA and NH and ME-CD2.
I think it’s anyones race right now, but seeing those tremendous crowds for DJT in MN, MI and PA today make feel good that he will surpass 270.
I’ve seen that 41% Hispanic support for Trump posted on a few web sites.
I believe George W. had 43% support amongst Hispanics in either 2000 or 2004.
Exit polling showed W winning 44% of Hispanics in 2004, but analysis from both the Left and Right showed that to be highly suspect. At most W won 40%, while Kerry won nearly 60%.
In 2000 W was in the mid 30s with Hispanics.
Good analysis; except that North Carolina is a huge factor with its 15 EVs and it being essentially a draw. Here is my list of links to watch on Silver’s analyses.
176 in Tossup (15 states)
27.2% - 09 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/colorado/
49.9% - 06 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/nevada/
39.2% - 04 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-hampshire/
52.4% - 29 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/
51.9% - 15 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/north-carolina/
74.4% - 11 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/arizona/
72.2% - 06 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/iowa/
63.8% - 18 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/
25.3% - 20 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/
18.8% - 13 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/virginia/
19.1% - 10 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/minnesota/
19.2% - 10 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/wisconsin/
23.2% - 16 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/michigan/
17.9% - 05 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-mexico/
22.5% - 04 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/maine/
180 for Trump (22 states)
182 for Clinton (DC + 13 states)
He’s not wrong about the demographics. Neither is Pat Buchanan. The ethnic makeup of the children tells the tale of what the future racial breakdown will be.
It’s unlikely the parties and their platforms will look anything like they do now by 2050. Most policies that conservatives want now, even if they passed them, are due to inevitably be repealed as the electoral makeup shifts into something that will be proudly and happily anti-white. Attitudes we see now mainly in the extreme left-wing will become mainstream.
“The Census Bureau reported that minorities (including Hispanic whites) made up 50.4% of the children born in the U.S. between July 2010 and July 2011, compared to 37% in 1990.”
I’m not buying that NC is really in play for the Dems. Hard for me to believe he loses a Romney state with a GOP governor and 2 GOP Senators. But basically, same logic as FL. If he loses it, the election is almost certainly lost.
It is human nature to have mistrust, fear, antipathy and conflict with people who are of a different ethnic group. Unless you work hard to educate and train people out of that mindset, that is the mindset that will take hold. Currently, the country is not only not educating “minorities” not to be bigoted against whites, the country is fanning the flames of ethnic strife by encouraging all minorities to be anti-white. That cultural bias, plus the baked-in population shift making whites inevitably no longer a majority in the country mean our politics and our internal security situation are just going to get uglier and uglier this century.
With all the early voting, “exit poll” seems like it’s fast becoming an outdated concept.
“Kelly Anne just said on Hannity, they’re writing off NV...”
Why do people keep lauding that woman?
That is about the worst tactical error you can make on the eve of an election.
“I dont get it. He himself said Trump is one state away from winning, but still gives hillary 2 to 1.”
I said the same thing earlier today. The statement makes no sense.
what bothers me...100 milion people dont bother to vote..i assume 70 million of those are white. Just cant keep throwing up your hands and moving to the suburbs. I have a large family, and they couldn’t be bothered...
she actually said that?..
Who would go to see her at midnight? They serving breakfast and Starbucks?
“Larry Sabato just said on CNN that its not even close...Clinton will crush Trump cuz of the latino vote”
Problem with that notion, is that he is assuming Hispanics ae going to vote for Hillary in the same numbers they did for 0bama. Trump will do better with Hispanics than Romney or McCain. Many working class Hispanics who did not vote in prior elections will come out fro Trump. They know illegals are a threat to their jobs and wages.
There aren’t any details so far - but my guess is this will be at one of black universities in Raleigh (Shaw University or St. Augustine college). But that’s just a guess. Students would be up at that hour and will probably be given the next day off as a “voting” holiday from classes.
Jim, this guy just lied to the forum and told everyone that Kellyanne Conway said the campaign is writing off NV, when she said nothing of the kind.
That is not in ANY way what she said. Not even close. It’s completely dishonest and is trollish behavior that IMHO shouldn’t be happening here.
Here’s a link to what she said:
https://youtu.be/EB0zJdQKMP4?t=1601
“she actually said that?”
According to Jedi Jones, she did.
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