Posted on 11/06/2016 7:13:23 PM PST by GilGil
Nice summary.
Correct me if I’m wrong...but didn’t Sabato predict a big win for Romney in 2012?
How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump
He could always get lucky for a third time.
The Romney states (which incl NC) + FL, OH and NH only give Trump 257. He needs 13 more.
Good question. I don’t know.
13 or (12 for a tie - to be decided by the House, and I wouldn’t count on them for ANYTHING)
If Trump wins FL & OH (both must win states), then any one of following 6 possibilities gets Trump above 270.
1. VA
2. (WI+NH)
3. PA
4. (CO+NV)
5. WI
6. MN
The states to watch are...
FL - if Trump loses it, it’s pretty much over, short of a northern snowy white multi-state surge
If he wins FL, then...
PA - Trump is the next President if he wins it.
If he loses PA, then...
NH - It’s almost over if he loses this one. Unless he pulls out BOTH CO and NV.
If he wins NH, then he only needs one of CO and NV. Still a nail-biter to see where those go.
You can ban all reporting on the other states and still all but call the election based on FL, PA, NH, CO and NV.
Kelly Anne just said on Hannity, they’re writing off NV, but think they have a shot at CO.
Sabato is wrong....Trump has at least 41% of the Latino vote.
They are not monolithic in their voting patterns.
I’m assuming he wins Iowa, as I assume the poster of that post did since he didn’t mention it.
Trump has Iowa.
I dont get it. He himself said Trump is one state away from winning, but still gives hillary 2 to 1
That’s what Colin Powell said: she messes up through constant arrogance and hubris.
Well, he’s saying there’s only a 1 out of 3 shot any one of the necessary states flips. That probably means each individual state has a WORSE than 1 out of 3 chance it flips. Racking them together would improve the odds that at least one would flip. Just like if you have a 1 out of 6 chance of rolling a die and getting a 6, your chances go up if you get to roll it multiple times. Trump’s got 5 or so dice rolls on flipping a state he has a low probability of winning and he only needs to hit on one.
Kelly Anne just said Trump has 54% of chance of winning on Hannity. Not too bullish, but sounds like the realistic upper end of his chances.
He is right about 2:1 because Trump needs a whole bunch of battleground states all together. Whereas Hillary needs only a couple.
Right now Nate Silver shows Clinton leading on 273 and Trump leading on 265. What is really going to decide the race for Trump is going to depend on:
1. Turnout of the GOP base - this is what will cement things for FL, NC, and across the map.
2. Midwest Push - this can make a difference in winning PA, MI, MN, and WI; along with keeping OH/IA for Trump - on this Hillary has her head in the sand on what NAFTA/GATT and now ObamaCare have devastated the Midwest corridor
3. Colorado & New Hampshire - each with their own unique scenarios - watch turnout especially closely here
4. Mormons in Nevada, Arizona, CO, NM - this is huge for Trump; Silver gives McMullin a 12.4% chance of getting Utah but in reality its now about 2.0% and going down fast in favor of Trump; as the initial kneejerk reaction by Mormons on the Billy Bush tape has definitely turned strongly in favor of Trump thanks to Wikileaks and Hillary herself. The Mormons are almost all voting for Trump (with noses plugged) and they will be at the polls in droves in NV, Colorado, AZ, and NM where it will have some impact. A few weeks back that would’ve been unthinkable, especially considering how the Deseret News, for the first time in 80 years making any statement regarding Presidential candidates, came out against Trump. Keep in mind that the Deseret News is owned by the Mormon church and is considered the “word of God” by Mormons generally.
She is very honest on TV!!
That’s good, I guess :)
I want to here he has a 99 percent chance of winning!!
But being lied to never helped anybody.
Thanks. I wonder if there’s blue states that aren’t as strong as the dems think.
i notice Sabato just loves saying the the demographics of the USA is changing...they just hate white people, self loathing $%#^$&#$!@....
Trump gets at least 320 EVs. You heard it hear first.
That’s (Silvers’ rating) not running away. 52/48 is essentially a toss up.
I think things are all higgledy-piggledy as far as how today’s events are going to shake out.
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