Posted on 11/06/2016 7:13:23 PM PST by GilGil
Political statistician Nate Silver officially projected that Republican nominee Donald Trump will win the highly influential swing state of Florida, according to an analysis published Sunday.
Trump has a 52 percent chance of winning Florida, compared to only a 48 percent chance for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in the polls-only forecast published on 538. Trump made incredible progress in the state, coming up from a 22 percent chance as of Oct. 15. Clinton has fallen from a 78 percent chance of winning the state since Oct. 15.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailycaller.com ...
Bill Mitchell:History will look back at this time and realize Hillary never stood a chance as the STATUS QUO candidate in a CHANGE election.
If I were a Dem supporter, I’d be really upset how poorly she’s doing when everyone indicated she had this in the can.
Trump in a powerful landslide.
He still has Trump at 35 percent. While higher than other idiotic sites, he TOO will look like an idiot in 48 hours!!
Why quote this moron? Perhaps he’s trying to save face.
If I were a Dem supporter, I’d be really upset how poorly she’s doing when everyone indicated she had this in the can.
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Hillary made the exact same mistake when running against Obama. She thought she had it in the bag and expected to clean up on super Tuesday. She was destroyed by her arrogance.
The same is happening here. The exact same thing. She did not take this election seriously and she is going to be destroyed by her arrogance.
I hope. Anyone else getting sick to their stomach as this election comes down to the wire? They’re going to have to give me horse tranquilizers and put me into a coma if I see Hillary pull ahead as the returns come in Tuesday night, my God, talk about a horror show because you know as well as I if she wins this election NOTHING is going to happen to her. Extreme corruption will have been legitimized and this RINO party will be on their knees to her. I just KNOW these punks like Paul Ryan will start saying stuff like “For the good of the country we should stop focusing on Hillarys MISTAKES”..She is going to skate scot free and start in right away with the razing of this country to the ground come Jan.20th.
“Trump has a 52 percent chance of winning Florida, compared to only a 48 percent chance for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton...”
That’s a coin flip.
Nates a pundit who tries to think his arguments are scientific... But his bias is obvious...
Watching him eat crow Tuesday will be delightful. As will reminding all my leftist friends who worship at his alter how they were had
Trump has Ohio and Florida !
Nate has gotten every single Trump predictions wrong. My bet is he is wrong this time too. Nate is know for being such a good prognosticator in the 08 and 12 elections, both went to Obama and worked well in his model, now that the Change candidate is a republican and polls slanted democratic his models are ripe to be in error!!
Nate’s map appears to have Trump at 265 EVs, even though his estimate below the map shows worse. The EV estimate seems to be a projected average estimate, not a count off the map.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
So he is saying Trump only needs to flip one more state to win or tie at 269...NH, CO, PA, MI, VA...
Strangely, he has Trump winning NV but losing CO, because he looks more at polls than early voting results. But he has tweeted that IF the NV polling is wrong, it could be a bad sign for Trump meaning other polls may be overestimating his support too.
“Silver officially projected that Republican nominee Donald Trump will win the highly influential swing state of Florida”
Uh, oh. We all know what THAT means: Florida is no longer an important swing state and will now be lumped in with the “unimportant” states like Ohio.
Larry Sabato just said on CNN that its not even close...Clinton will crush Trump cuz of the latino vote...such a smug punk...i pray Trump slams this cabal Tuesday.
Why quote this moron? Perhaps he’s trying to save face.
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I’m quoting him to show that he has no credibility and is a media propagandist.
He analyzes polls. The polls changed. He doesn’t base his work on tea leaves or feelings.
Silver only got one state wrong in 2008 and 2012. He only needs to get one wrong this time for Trump to win.
I think this is a "change" election, too.
But, I'm not sure there will be enough "change" voters to counter the "gimme that" voters, the "idiot" voters, the "emotionally overwrought" voters, and the vote fraud.
Trump has had an uphill battle due to media bias and his own unforced errors, but I don't think any of the other Republican candidates would have had a better chance against the Clinton machine -- because I don't think any of the other candidates would have embraced the "change" that voters really want.
I really hope that this is like the 1980 Reagan/Carter election, but the Democrats are in a better position now than back then. I guess we'll know pretty early -- if unexpected northeastern and midwestern states start flipping to Trump, it will be an early night. If Hillary hangs on to certain key states, it will be decided long before the polls close in the west.
I feel exactly the same. But not only because she gets away with all her corruption; imagine what she can do to this country, starting with the Supreme Court!.
the only states he needs is Florida— ohio— n. carolina and NH.. and if not NH he has VA, Wi, Pa, CO, NM, and MI
Silver’s biggest concern is what gives him the best chance of maintaining his reputation. He’s Frank Luntz with a spreadsheet.
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