Posted on 11/05/2016 11:12:31 AM PDT by dp0622
http://www.ktvn.com/story/33617755/new-poll-shows-republican-surge-in-nevada
Just posting to counter the thread some troll punk put up about NV. I think it was pulled.
Trump is going to win and trolls are going to cry like the b.tches they are.
Jon Ralsron is no one to ignore on Nevada politics.
Heck and the GOPe are to blame if we lose.
Dividing the Party was beyond stupid.
Still, it’s not over. And it’s still close.
With such a large contingent of "Other" voters, I'll repeat a statement I made more than a month ago when I suggested that Nevada is probably the most unpredictable state in this election.
Yes, both Parties are cannibalizing their election day turnout with the large early votes.
Don’t know what difference it will make for either.
No. Ds almost universally vote early, cannibalizing their election day. For ex., in OH, FL, IA, and NC, all have much heavier R voting on election day than Ds. That’s why they need such a margin before election day, and why if they don’t have it, they will likely lose.
Are you sure? Doubt it.
No, it’s much more statewide. Something like 35,000.
Now, this is back of the envelope, don’t have actual numbers, but if about 1m voted in 2012, and if the split is roughly 32-27-16 (D/R/I as it has been in early voting); and assuming Trump gets (as the pollster says) +7 indies and just a 5% crossover, then my number is the Rs have to make up 8,000 votes on election day.
Increase either the indy portion or the D crossover, and you can see how it closes fast.
What evidence do you have that Rs are doing this in NV? They sure aren’t in NC.
Can someone point me to the actual CNN/ORC poll cited in this news story? The link in the news story 404s, and when I go to the CNN site, I can not find this poll anywhere.
Then what’s the point to the early voting? Lock in Dem votes before Hillary’s next scandal breaks?
Nevada has more registered Democrats (471,342) than Republicans (423,208). they also have a large group of Non-partisans (234,229) as well as Libertarians, etc.
http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4062
This is a huge elections for Nevada. We’ve got gun control, legalizing Marijuana, energy competition and exception from tax of medical equipment on the ballot.
I expect we’ll have a huge turnout of voters. I think Nevada will go Trump and go Democrat down ballot. We aren’t very happy with our Republican politicians. A part of that dislike is that they are nevertrumpers.
Almost no signs in town, rural areas have lots of Trump signs.
The point is, as it is argued, to try to ensure that all voters vote. You could say the same for Trump: he likely had a LOT of “early votes” before the tape surfaced.
I don’t do polls. I do votes.
Dems are not voting for Trump. They might go third party but he’ll get as many Dems as she gets in NeverTrumpers.
The early voting(cheating) numbers have her up big and if crossover voters are the only hope then Nevada is lost.
Go Trump!
It wasn’t a crank thread. The article about Republicans trailing in early vote in NV is by a well-established analyst for that state. It is the one very serious negative result in a state Republicans are seeing in early vote. It doesn’t tell us if there are Dems crossing over to vote GOP for example. But early vote is a valid data point, probably more valid than polls. It is a worrisome sign and suggests Trump and his campaign need to concentrate on other states like PA, CO, NH, MI or VA to make up for the possible loss of NV. NV votes the vast majority of its votes in early votes. He has little chance to make up ground if he’s lost the early vote. I would cancel his NV appearance this weekend and go to western PA.
Dear Lord this thread is all over the place, from believing this election will be won on Election Day to “might as well get on the ledge now”.
The HUGE increases in early voters.
Those don’t come from thin air or unicorn trees.
I expect it’s about the same for both Parties though.
If he is over 27%, then this is a real shot.
A “well established” analysis who is a rabidly anti Trump guy.
Perhaps people need to look beyond the media propaganda about “repudiation” and look deeper about the motivations of these people. Wilileaks has ripped the cover off just how deep the corruption runs in our political/media system
My ledge has a comfy chair and a well stocked cooler. I’ve crawled in and out of that window many times in the last two weeks.
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