And in other news:
Muslims Outraged After Alibaba Changes Name Of Travel Website To “Flying Pig”… 
H/T weaselzippers
Posted on 11/03/2016 7:23:39 AM PDT by Henchster
Today, Rasmussen put this out:
The latest national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows Trump leading Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton 45% to 42%. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson has four percent (4%) support, and Green Party hopeful Jill Stein picks up just one percent (1%). Two percent (2%) like another candidate, and four percent (4%) are still undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
They then went on to say:
Eighty-eight percent (88%) of voters say they are now certain how they will vote. Among these voters, Trump has a 10-point lead over Clinton – 53% to 43%. Johnson gets two percent (2%) and Stein one percent (1%). This is the first time any candidate has crossed the 50% mark. Among those who still could change their minds, it’s Clinton 36%, Trump 36%, Johnson 22% and Stein six percent (6%).
Wait a minute! This doesn't compute, how can Trump only have 45% when he has 53% of 88%? Let's use their raw data to work back to their summary:
| Candidate | 88% | Certain | 12% | NotCer | Total |
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| Trump | 53 | 46.64 | 36 | 4.32 | 50.96 |
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| Clinton | 43 | 37.84 | 36 | 4.32 | 42.16 |
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| Johnson | 2 | 1.76 | 22 | 2.64 | 4.40 |
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| Stein | 1 | .88 | 6 | .72 | 1.60 |
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Ah-HA! Trump actually has 51% of the vote - Rasmussen is tweaking Trump's number down to keep the race interesting!
Here's the good news:
Rasmussen Reports updates its White House Watch survey daily Monday through Friday at 8:30 am Eastern based on a three-day rolling average of 1,500 Likely U.S. Voters.
The survey of 1,500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 31 and November 1-2, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
This is a small margin of error poll! Trump is busting into the landslide zone, but Rasmussen doesn't want to depress Clinton voters! Not only that, but it was taken over the last three days, so it is lagging on Hillary's freefall in support.
Good catch. Dunno how IBD doesn’t have Trump up, or how ABC has a tie.
Maybe they are using some of Zogby’s “special sauce”?
Yesterday I looked at the raw data for the CNN poll that showed Trump and Clinton tied in Colorado. 59% college grads (37% statewide) and a very high percentage of 18-29 year-old voters. CNN’s polling company concentrated their respondents from the college towns full of liberal professors and brain-washed students, no doubt. One of the many tricks firms like Monmouth (Hillary sent them $220,000 for “polling services”) use to constantly get left-leaning results.
There’s reason for optimism, but don’t start the celebration until November 9th! Now is not the time to take it easy. Get out there and VOTE TRUMP, and convince as many people as you can to VOTE TRUMP!
88% are "certain". But, 4% are undecided. That means that 8% expressed a choice, but aren't certain about it.
I'm not following your calculations, but if you didn't take this into account, try running them again.
The Rasmussen poll only includes likely voters, and of likely voters, 88% are certain who they will vote for, 12% are either undecided or may change their vote.
I concur...Pat Caddell called it correctly when he said it feels like 1980. A lot can happen between now and next Tuesday, but momentum is clearly with Trump, and I believe many of the so-called “pundits” will be surprised by the size of his victory. Hillary is spending most of her time defending what should be “safe” Democratic turf, while Trump is trying to expand the map.
To be fair, Trump needs to do that, to create more pathways to 270. But some of the polls over the last 48 hours suggest the tsunami is building. Looks like Ohio is in the bank and Florida is in the same position. He took Iowa weeks ago and the recent polls out of North Carolina look very good. That gives him more time to focus on some of the “other” states he needs to reach 270, like Nevada, Colorado and New Hampshire.
Of course, if Pennsylvania goes red, it’s all over.
One more thing: keep an eye on VA. Yesterday’s Hampton University poll gave Trump a three-point lead (he was down 12 in early October). The WaPo has called the Hampton U survey the most accurate in Virginia and it was the only survey that had Trump and Clinton tied in August and September before Hillary jumped to that big lead last month.
I’m on the road daily in areas that are Democrat strongholds (Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk). Have yet to see a Hillary yard sign anywhere; no bumper stickers; heck, you wouldn’t know there a Virginia senator on the ticket, judging from the obvious lack of enthusiasm.
On the other hand, I live in the northern edge of the recently-re-drawn 2nd Congressional District, and do a lot of work in the 1st District, which encompasses most of the Tidewater Peninsula and Northern Neck (R+8). Trump signs everywhere. True, the number of signs doesn’t always translate to votes, but I can safely predict that Democrat vote in my region will be down significantly on Tuesday. Trump clearly has an opening in Virginia.
They are trying to keep their narrative going in order to protect Clinton , while the Dems keep going to have rallies at colleges where kids are there already. How many of these kids on campus who attend these rallies are actually voting, and are form that state?
No this is just a day out for them on campus, or an excuse oto skip class.
Plus these kids don’t have a mortgage, pay electric, gas, water, property taxes, income tax, state tax, etc.
They have no ideas what they are screaming for at these rallies as they are so ignorant.
Yes, the calculations take that into account. It doesn’t mean that some of Trump’s 51% won’t change their vote to Hillary, but it does mean that if the election were today, that is how people would vote. I’d be more inclined to think that a higher percentage will change their mind from Hillary to Trump, given her downward trend and Google search requests for “Changing my early vote.”
You misread the article.
And in other news:
Muslims Outraged After Alibaba Changes Name Of Travel Website To “Flying Pig”…
H/T weaselzippers
Polling has transitioned from its original intention of being a snapshot of the “horse race” aspect of political campaigns - a newsy barometer - to becoming a campaign tactic.
The Hillary campaign has been fakery from the very beginning - their entire strategy from before the primaries was fakery. They wanted to create the meme of the “inevitable”. This would depress and discourage their opposition, whether Bernie (which was fakery even beyond this) to the Republican opponent (which they miscalculated significantly). The omnipresent polls have been a major part of their campaign tactics from the Convention on...and are just as fake as the rest of their smoke and mirrors campaign strategy has been. They have paid good Soros money to make damned sure they controlled the narrative from the polling that they controlled even more than they controlled questions and moderators at the debates. This IS their strategy, has been from the beginning. Just takes willing accomplices and money and Voila! the polls say what you want them to.
These late polls are just as fake as the others throughout the campaign have been. We are being played by a tactic that fits into their overall strategy.
Trump will win by 7, perhaps more. And nothing in the past 10 days has changed anything except the “perhaps more” part.
TTTT!
Stupid autocorrect..meant “sitting area”..
Someone is promising them free rides. That is what they are screaming for.
Imagine if Trump wins in...New York? Of all places that would be the final straw for the mediots.
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