I understand what you are saying, and to some degree, I would agree with you, but this has been blown completely out of proportion. I have lived in Prince William, Fairfax, Falls Church, Arlington, and Loudoun Counties for more decades than I care to admit (and, I may as well have lived in Alexandria, because I spent a lot of weekends there). I have seen the changes throughout the region, over a very long period of time, and the doom-n-gloomers have exaggerated the problem to almost embarrassing levels. Most of the new growth areas are actually filled with a mixture of Republicans and democrats, regardless of where their paychecks come from. I know, since I live among them. They are raising families, they see first-hand the devastation of illegal immigration, and, generally speaking they are professionals (this is very different from the true fedgov types who inhabit Arlington/Alexandria/parts of Falls Church, who are true believers and died-in-the-wool democrats). But those areas are not where the bulk of the growth has been. The bulk of the growth has been in outer FFX county, Loudoun, PW, etc, and it is there that you find a fairly normal mix of voters.
Don’t buy into the hype. VA is still a swing state.
The BIG change has been demographics. Many of these these areas have experienced large-scale changes. My regular voting area in mid-FFX county went from being largely white (60-40), to something more like 10-90, during 08 and 12. These voters were never seen before (at least by me), and were for the most part young, and I honestly had no idea what continent they were from. I never saw them in 10, or 14, or 04/06. But in the Obama election they were walking neighborhoods, and were everywhere before the election. I can still remember them walking the neighborhoods with idiot college kids from Mason. Now, nowhere to be seen.
Haven’t seen them at all, this time. 08 and 12 were aberrations, caused by Obama. Northern Virginia may lean democrat, but the results of 08 and 12 are very misleading. For both elections, I lived in mixed, working class neighborhoods that were fairly ethnic. They loved Obama. Signs everywhere, and you would constantly overhear people talking politics. Now, I don’t hear a word. The only time I have even run into Hillary supporters have been from never-Trumpers, not from democrats.
Well said. I likewise think the “Virginia is permanently blue” line is much exagerrated. Obama was able to assemble a coalition that Hillary cannot replicate. Obama was a perfect storm for Democrats - huge numbers of minorities and young voters.
I agree 100%. Virginia has been a traditionally right of center state since the 60’s. It voted against Clinton twice in the 90’s.It voted against Gore and Kerry.
I will not be surprised at all when Trump wins the state of Virginia as it returns to its sense of honor given the complete and total corruption of the Clinton’s.
I don’t live in VA, so I will happily yield to your expertise there.. There is little doubt that 08 in particular was a complete abberation nationally... Between moderates anger at Bush’s wars, and Obama’s time for a black man.. you wound up with such a skewed turnout and result that using it as a baseline for ANYTHING going forward is worthless.
8 though, in most areas returned to more normal numbers, and Romney and the RNC blew it.
Every indication I have seen, is Hillary will vastly underperform 12... and in the rust belt states in particular, I truly do expect Trump to completely outperform any R in decades... Folks not from this area, I don’t think understand just how bad things are across most of these states... at least for the rural and small towns. The coordinated wealth extraction from the United States, is something they recognize intrinsically even if they can’t articulate or understand it.. its being done to this part of the nation now for decades... and its not abating anytime soon if nothing changes.... They know in their gut, even if they don’t understand currency manipulations, or quantitative easing... they know they are getting hosed, and its being done willfully and voluntarily by their own nation and its institutions. They may be life long democrats, from many generations of life long democrats, but they are not big city social liberals... they are hard working honest men and women, watching their lives being destroyed... no one caring or doing a damn thing about it... and then being asked to vote for someone who they know to be completely dishonest and living large on corruption and cheating....
Hillary just won’t play across most of it. I would love to see VA flip, and I will yield to you completely on it your opinions, I don’t spend a lot of time there. I’d love to see VA flip red... and I do agree that 08 and 12 are bad cycles to use as baselines for anything.. 08 in particular. Just like this cycle, will not be a good baseline for 20 or 24... What is happening with both of these 2 candidates is so far outside the norm, that using this election however it turns out as a baseline predictive model for the next one will be comical.
Keep fighting hard... GOTV... We got this.
Thanks for the insights. I’ve been saying that VA is basically a tie for awhile now. It’s all going to depend on three things: turnout, turnout, and turnout. I’m also a little more sanguine given fraud and the illegal vote in FFX and NOVA. We’ll find out by about midnight on the 8th.