Posted on 10/27/2016 3:44:17 PM PDT by Beautiful_Gracious_Skies
Why is Republican nominee Donald Trump leading in two battleground states and nearly tied in another with less than two weeks before the election? Experts, analysts, and Washington, D.C. insiders lectured the American people on how this was not supposed to happen.
According to a new poll, Trump maintains a healthy lead in Ohio over Hillary Clinton, 46 to 42 percentage points and in a Bloomberg Politics poll of Florida, Trump leads Clinton 45 to 43. In Pennsylvania, Trump continues to dwindle Clinton's lead where he is now within three points of the Democratic nominee.
Florida and Ohio are must wins for the Trump campaign, and combined with a win in Pennsylvania, Trump would more than likely be the next President of the United States.
In the most accurate poll of 2012, Trump is basically tied with Clinton nationally.
According to FiveThirtyEight, the Investor’s Business Daily/TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence poll predicted the correct outcome of that election, exposing Obama's dramatically underestimated performance and the falsehood of Romney's estimated clear victory.
At a rally in Tallahassee on Tuesday night, Trump made clear his intentions in the Sunshine State. “In 14 days we are going to win the state of Florida and we are going to win back the White House,” he declared.
I have seen the Dem NoVA GOTV operation up close and personal. There is no way the Dem vote will be depressed there. Early voting allows them to marshal the vote and even commit voter fraud. The Dems are obsessive, vicious, well-funded, and organized in NoVA.
In 2012 we were able to increase the GOP vote by almost 100,000 compared to 2008. It was a massive GOTV effort. The Dems still won the state by 150,000 and increased their number by 25,000. Non-Hispanic whites, the power base of the GOP, are dying off. The Dems are increasing their numbers thru immigration and minority birthrates. By 2019 half of the children 18 and under are minorities as defined by the USG. Each cohort that turns 18 annually is more minority and more Dem.
One third of the vote is located in NoVA. In 2012 Obama amassed a margin of 224,000 votes in just Fairfax, Arlington, Alexandria (city), Prince William, and Loudoun counties. Obama won by 149,000 statewide. Then you toss in predominantly black cities like Hampton (28,000 margin for Obama), Newport News (24,000 for Obama), Norfolk (40,000 for Obama), and Richmond (55,000 for Obama). These are huge numbers to overcome.
The only hope is a depressed black vote (they make up 20% of the population) or Trump gets a surprising number of black votes. Blacks don't like the Clintons. And a much larger turnout from the rural areas.
The only reason I ask is that the VA Governor race was ridiculously close ... that’s the *only* reason I think Trump has a shot there. Would *yuge* turnout swing things in his direction :-).
We have had several close races in off years. McAuliffe barely beat Cuccinelli and Warner almost lost to Gillespie. In low turnout elections, the GOP has the advantage. During a Presidential year, the Dem turnout/fraud machine goes into overdrive.
I agree with you on PA. Trump has a better shot there than in VA. The demographics are a little better and Trump, unlike previous Reps, has more appeal among white, blue collar voters. PA has also suffered far more than VA when it comes to the loss of manufacturing jobs. VA is propped up by huge federal expenditures. Lots of federal employees throughout the state. I lived inside the Beltway in McLean. It shouldn't come as a surprise that seven out of the ten richest counties in America ring DC. We lived in a very affluent bubble.
Trump should concentrate his resources in the remaining days where he truly has a shot. PA and MI seem like good targets outside the needed Ohio, FL, and NC.
My son lives in Allegheny County. His wife said no hillary signs lots of trump signs.
Here is the problem, even Trump has not been to VA for how long, so does this mean he has given VA up too?
Is that a heavily populated county though?
Dems have the two major cities, and Trump needs to plug into their suburbs, and the black community.
“...but will grudgingly vote for her ‘cuz Trump is too scary!”
Might have something to do with him promising them jobs. A lot of people don’t really want a job if they’re already gaming the system well enough.
They were gonna vote for Hillary anyway. They’d have come up with a reason not to vote for Cruz or Carson or Jeb! or any of the rest.
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I meant to include Florida in the following:
10/26/2016 8:00:42 PM · 19 of 22
Graybeard58 to UMCRevMom@aol.com
Trump will win Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina and likely Virginia and certainly Texas, Georgia and Utah.
Remember, you heard it here first.
VA seems unlikely. PA, MI, NH, NV I’d believe.
I think Trump will win PA and might keep it close in other Northeastern States if he doesn’t win any. I think Trump will win NH and Maine.
Connecticut would be great, so would Rhode Island. In Connecticut, I’d love to see Dan Carter beat Senator Blooming Idiot.
NC is heading safe Trump. Early in person voting (65% of total Dem votes in 2012) is down 13%. Rep is only down 1% and independent is up 30% and nearly all white (Romney won by 3%). If the expanded early voting sites doesn’t change the trajectory, should be able to call NC as early as mid-next week.
Well here's the truth. Trump had a rally in Virginia just a few days ago and his campaign is spending a lot of money there. They see the state as winnable and I think they have a decent shot at it.
I've seen your other negative "all is lost" posts. Why don't you put your loser attitude on the shelf for the next 10 days. Turn off your computer and go get some fresh air.
Great pic.
For Presidential yacht: I nominate USS Iowa.
You might be surprised. There has been a Trump-Pence sign in the Fairfax County Parkway median all week and it hasn’t been touched.
I would love to be surprised.
I am STILL PRAYING for those 33,000 missing emails, I am hoping for the FRIDAY before Election Day so they have NO TIME to get their SPIN MACHINE in line!!!
Fox has been compromised.
Every night Megyn trots out Cuck Stirewalt who says the same thing Britt says. Give it up folks, idiot Trump has no chance. Not one time do they question the various methods of oversampling.
Meanwhile heavy internet traffic types like Cernovich, Adams, etc. are asking if the HillBullies have given up. Why all the emergency trips to Florida by any Dem with a pulse? My liberal FB friend says it’s because team Hillary doesn’t want to appear smug.
The other thing is Trump might most likely won’t take Cali or NY but what if he gets a bigger % of the popular vote than recent Repubbies.
However Hume leads with utter crap. Back when Fox started we were all just excited they could find a couple folks who “lean” right, thus Hume was sort of ok. Now I can’t stand him. Sometimes I watch him and Megyn (bang buddies?????) just to see how ridiculous Fox has gotten. Why do I think Nov. 9th is going to be some major upheaval?
“He won’t win VA. I say that as someone who lived 36 years in Fairfax County up to a year ago. NoVA will ensure Hillary wins in VA.”
You are sadly correct. The elitists from Montgomery County MD migrated to NoVA and have consistently voted for the same policies that ensured MD will be forever blue.
I live in Manassas city. I’ve seen two signs for the Beast. I actually saw a guy standing along side the Prince William Parkway (VA 294) down by Lake Ridge holding up an Evan McMuffin sign.
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