Working Class District in Minnesota Trump Up by 12 and Dems are Going Independent

American Lookout ^ | 10-26-2016 | Tom Franklin

[MMaschin]

The eighth Congressional District of Minnesota is a working class area in Eastern Minnesota. It has voted for a Democrat in the last four Presidential elections. It has a Democrat Congressman and will likely be the most expensive Congressional race this year.

Usually, a Democrat Presidential candidate would win. But a recent poll held a shock:

Trump is up 12 points!

And more: Trump is winning among women. And the Democrat Party is losing members. They’re becoming Independents.

What The Data Says did this analysis of the Eighth Congressional District of Minnesota:

– Trump is beating Hillary by 12 points: “Our poll shows Republican Donald Trump with a 12-point lead over Clinton, 47 percent to 35 percent“
– Trump is winning with women: “leading Clinton 41 percent to 39 percent.”
– Dems are crossing over: “the number of Democrats dropped from 34 percent in 2014 to 27 percent in 2016. The number of independents jumped from 31 percent two years ago to 41 percent this year.“

You may say, this is one congressional district and it does not represent the whole country. Right it does not, but it does represent old fashion Democrats. Democrats who do not really support the party’s position on social issues, but have traditionally voted for Democrats because they believed the Democrat was for the “worker”. This district could be a microcosm of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Iowa. According to Wikipedia, Minnesota’s 8th district has voted Democrat for the past 4 presidential elections, so why would it be polling +12 for Trump???

If this District is a sign of what’s happening in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Iowa, Trump is going to win in a landslide!

Voters are leaving the Democrat Party. They’re voting for Trump.

How many working class voters are doing the same thing?

[MMaschin]

This is one of the (probably the biggest) reasons that I think polls have been so inaccurate this year!

The polls start out with an expected distribution of party id for the turnout, and then they weight the poll to match. This will obfuscate any significant change in party identification.

Just imagine if the poll in MN CD-8 started with a predetermine proportion of D/R/I and forced it. The poll would be drastically different! That is what has happened to the majority of polls this year.

This poll of CD-8 did not need to weight by party id, because it was a relatively small area, and they could use other demographics to insure they had a proper sample distribution. This is also why I think the Remington Research polls are much more accurate than other polls. The also did not weight on party id, but in order to not weight on party id, they needed to have large enough samples from each of the regions of the State, to insure a proper distribution - like this poll has done. That is why if you look at the Remington Research polls, their sample sizes are so much larger - they needed to be large enough to get adequate sample distributions for different area's of the State.

This poll shows that yes, it may be a Trump landslide - at least in the Rust Belt, but that's good enough for me!

[gaijin]

BERNERS..!!

Thank you!

And thank YOU, Hillary, for berning them...!

SCREAM OF ANGER FROM BASEMENT..?

[RoseofTexas]

WOW!!! Praise God!! GO TRUMP GO!!

[gaijin]

[LostPassword]

It’s hard to keep a party together that “represents” both BLM and workers. Especially when workers are told to sit down and shut up.

And that’s just one of the many conflicts Democrats have to deal with.

[Alberta's Child]

That district covers about 25% of the entire state of Minnesota. It's mostly rural, with the exception of the Duluth area. It's probably seen a lot of loss of industry in Duluth and International Falls, and I know they had that debacle within the last year or so where a foreign mining company backed out of a major deal to reopen some of the iron mines up in the Mesabi and Vermillion hills.

This has been a Democratic district for most of the time since World War II. Jim Oberstar represented it for a million years until he lost in the 2010 midterms, and it had a Republican for one term before it went back to the Democratic side. I can easily see the Republican challenger winning this race in a wave of blue-collar support for Donald Trump.

[Weeble]

Dunno if dems er da Berners. Dis is Daloot and da iron range, duncha no. Figger dem taconite miners up der kinda got some fear a what old Hillery done to da coal miners - she might do it to dem too. Always been lots a good hard working folks up der, but dey all voted DFL cuz dats what you did up der and what your parents and der parents did for generations. Bobby Dylan is from der. Da times they are a changing.
“End of movie script from Fargo”.

[Michael.SF.]

Ohio......Pennsylvania......Michigan......Illinois...... Wisconsin......Iowa

YES.........YES..................MAYBE............NO.........MAYBE.........YES

If we get those three yeses we can call Trump Mr. President

[EGPWS]

Yeah, the "Red Eighth" and not named that for being Republican..

Been politically "red" for over half a century. You go Comrades of the eighth!!

[Parley Baer]

I have to agree with you analysis. I think most of the polls are using 2012 as there base for weighing the data. IMHO you cannot do that for 2016 as I believe there are a lot of cross over votes that will go for Trump.

[Red Badger]

Minnesota in play?...............

[Alberta's Child]

For whatever it's worth, 5 of the 20 players on the roster of the 1980 U.S. Olympic "Miracle on Ice" hockey team were from the area now covered by the 8th Congressional district.

I have no idea why I even felt the need to post that. LOL.

[Rusty0604]

Fun facts!

[Clintonfatigued]

This is looking really good. The problem from a statewide perspective is those high-income Twin City suburbs are not producing good numbers for Trump. The same situation exists in the high-income Philly suburbs of Pennsylvania.

[Navin Johnson]

“Minnesota in play?...............”

That would be nice, but the ‘Rats in Minneapolis will try to cheat if necessary to flip the state to Illary.

[jjotto]

Just to be clear, Minnesota 8th is NORTHEASTERN Minnesota, which includes Duluth and the traditional mining area called the Iron Range. It has been home to corrupt unions and European-descended socialists for several generations. America’s most famous Communist leader, Gus Hall, was born and raised there.

It may be that it is simply changing to a more traditional Midwestern rural (GOP) area as the mining and manufacturing have been exported, and communist centers have moved to universities and the coasts.

[karnage]

AC, that sort of factoid may not appear relevant now - but you never know. Thanks!!!

[Tuxedo]

Idk... they did vote for Jesse Ventura....

[HamiltonJay]

I’ve been trying to tell folks, the rust belt thing is bigger than than just Trump. This is a major realignment that has been long overdue!!! Of working class, and white working class in particular. They should have moved R long ago, but idiotic adherence to “free trade” kept it from starting...

Trump is a catalyst, he abandoned this nonsense and provided the R don’t blow it, the rust belt could be as reliably red as the south within a few cycles....

MN is a bit of an odd beast, I don’t know if it could ever go solid red, but the rest sans MN and IL certainly can, and should if R’s aren’t too stupid and squander it.

[Atlantan]

Very competitive 8th District House race.

http://kstp.com/politics/stewart-mills-rick-nolan-8th-congressional-race-kstp-survey-usa-poll/4299301/