Yes. The base states Trump takes and holds then add NH.
Posted on 10/26/2016 12:15:34 PM PDT by 11th_VA
Washington (CNN) — Hillary Clinton's edge over Donald Trump is dwindling in New Hampshire, a new Monmouth University poll shows.
Clinton leads the GOP nominee by 4 percentage points, within the poll's 4.9-point margin of error and an apparent decrease from the 9-point edge she enjoyed in Monmouth's September survey.
Washington (CNN) — Hillary Clinton's edge over Donald Trump is dwindling in New Hampshire, a new Monmouth University poll shows.
Clinton leads the GOP nominee by 4 percentage points, within the poll's 4.9-point margin of error and an apparent decrease from the 9-point edge she enjoyed in Monmouth's September survey.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
If it’s from lying Monmouth Trump is ahead in NH.
Take it..I know we’re not focused on NH, but I want it anyway. I want as many states as possible to repudiate this madness.
SSSHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The key to the election now is to motivate our side, and convince the other side it is in the bag and they don’t need to show up!
Going to be like Reagan in 1980 BUT VOTE and Work Hard
COME ON, New Hampshire! Vote for Mr Trump!
Live Free, or Die!
In the past maybe. This year the bias is off the charts. It may simply be that no amount of skewing can hide a Trump surge. That said, I'm still burned by 2012 and 2008 thinking that the GOP was secretly leading.
LOL. Yeah right. Trump will just go running there without any internal polling confirming the results of this one poll.
Look where the candidates are campaigning and that will tell you what they consider to be the most important and critical. Trump has been practically living in FL and NC.
Trump is scheduled today for two visits to NC. Tomorrow it is three stops in Ohio. Friday it is NH and MA.
As the days dwindle, so must the ‘special sauce’ Hillary leads concocted by abetting pollsters. That is unless they don’t want to keep doing business by maintaining these ridiculous “Hillary is winning” assertions.
Regardless, I believe he will win and it will be a landslide of 1980 proportions.
NH is the state I had giving Trump 272! This election is going to be called real early.
Concur.
Never doubted this... The media cartel completely in the bag for Hillary since the Friday before the 2nd debate has likely made this election closer than it probably would have been otherwise, but Trump will still get a solid win.
Indeed. Watch for the "sudden surge of swing-voters" excuse.
Maybe not on the scale of 1980, but I think many late deciding voters go to Trump for a comfortable victory.
While I’d love to see a landslide, Trump just winning 270 with taking New Hampshire is fine by me. I remember the outrage of when Bush won in 2000 with the help of New Hampshire. The Democrats were outraged as if they’ve been cheated on...to lose their “safe” blue state.
First, the desire to poll "likely voters" means that the polling companies use Registered voter lists, and ask for a specific voter when calling. Then they ask how likely that person is to actually vote. This results in dated information being used to determine the sample. Many new registrations have happened in the last few months, many of them who had been disenchanted with the political process, but see Trump as a force to change that.
Second, in order to turn around a poll quickly, the sample is not truly random; the pollster creates a party affiliation model based on estimated turnout. This could be accurate, it could be manipulated, or it could be that the guess is simply wrong, without any willful intent. No one really knows for sure what the turnout will be, so the pollsters use historical data for guidance. But as we know, past performance is not indicative of future results.
And third, there is the idea that people are not candid with the pollster for a number of reasons. This is the hardest one to confirm or quantify, but with social media and the media so belligerent toward Trump, it may be a factor, even a small one.
Taken together, these factors could cause the Trump support to be underestimated.
As the Voting lists get updated, the models revised, and the voter becoming more forthcoming, we could see the results tighten.
But whether they tighten or not, I think all of Trump's support is understated, and expect the votes on election day to be quite a surprise to the "conventional wisdom".
They polled 23% D, 25% R, 51%I
Here is NH voter registration as of October 1, 2016:
D 271353—29%
R 295697—32%
I 351316—38%
So their sample is skewed towards Independents with a one point skew towards Democrats.
Why are they oversampling Independents by so much?
Couldn’t they keep calling until they got the right mix?
There is still too much opportunity for mischief.
Yes. The base states Trump takes and holds then add NH.
Trump was planning to be in NH anyway. He’s in Manchester on Friday.
I agree. If Trump wins NH, and we'll know early in the evening, the election is over.
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