Posted on 10/26/2016 5:57:43 AM PDT by 11th_VA
... Who's going to win? At the moment the most reliable poll in recent history is giving a slight edge to the guy who fires up fanatics for free.
That's Donald Trump, and as of Saturday the Investors Business Daily/TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence Poll had him leading Hillary Clinton by two points in a four-way race. (Check the RealClearPolitics daily summaries of the latest polls here.)
That lead is within the margin of error of course, but it's fascinating that Trump could still be in contention after a couple of what looked like the worst weeks in history.
To find out why, I put in a call to Raghavan Mayur. He's the president of Ramsey-based Technometrica, the company that does the actual polling for Investor's Business Daily.
The IBD/TIPP tracking poll was rated as "the most accurate" in the 2012 race by the New York Times. While other polls had Republican Mitt Romney up by several points going into the election, Mayur's poll correctly showed Obama ahead.
Check this Business Insider article about how IBD/TIPP called the race at this point in the 2012 cycle. They had Obama up 3 points while other polls were calling it for Romney.
In 2008, the poll got Obama's victory margin right down to the decimal point at 7.2. And the cycle before that, the poll put George W. Bush at 2.1 going into an election he won with a 2.5 percent margin.
That means Mayur is perfectly positioned to answer the question Clinton famously asked a month ago: "Why aren't I ahead by 50 points?"
The reason, said the Indian-born graduate of NJIT and Rutgers, is that support on either side has hardened to the point that scandals don't seem to matter – even the recent groping allegations against Trump.
(Excerpt) Read more at nj.com ...
I remember that race well, and one of the reasons the ass-stomping by Reagan seemed so harsh was that the polls all had Carter winning no matter what. It is no different today.
Hear rumblings on my scouring the alt-right and other sites that Trump is within striking distance now in a bunch of states, Wis, VA, Mich, NM, and other deep blue states and that Ohio, Fla, Iowa and are goners for Clinton(Not news to us). this is looking like 1980. Even that joke ABC poll has her down 3 points today to 9. I put on my full body condom and went over to DU, haha..they are panicked. The threads there are hilarious, talk about concern trolls, but then again that site being mostly gay\bi\beta males they get discouraged easily. One thread a guy had the temerity to say, maybe the right wingers are right and the polls are cooked and we are swallowing our own Kool-Aid. He got totally blasted. Their meme, "Trump Zombies come to rallies, we'll come to the polls"....We'll see snowflakes, we'll see, you discourage easily, your snowflake hero is done in a cpl of months. I read that DU average age is 24 and male..no surprise. I say offer a free tattoo, a 25% discount at Urban Outfitters on skinny corduroys and a fruit flavored craft beer and they won't vote that day.
Obama in his own hubris gave us a gift this week in announcing the 25% Obamacare increase. We all know it’s much higher especially in all the battleground states like AZ, NC, OH, PA and FL.
If the Senate Republicans had half a brain, the Turtle would round them up, get Ryan on board with the House, and announce that given the emergency crisis in Obamacare, they are putting their disagreements and reservations about Trump aside for the good of the country! They can announce that they are unanimously throwing support behind Trump because the country cannot endure this Obamacare catastrophe any longer! They would save face by not showing any love to Trump but rather support him for the good of the country.
The senate would save their own sorry ass positions, the country would resoundingly respond as they are already doing, and it would be a Trump presidency AND a republican congress. Will they do it? The republicans’ capacity for stupidity never ceases to amaze me. We will see!
I was in undergrad in 1980, the morning after the election about 1/2 the Windows had banners hanging out of them
“It’s morning in America”
Before the vote students were too cowed by the commie profs to show their faith. Afterwards, it was another story.
Trump is already ahead in early voting in key states that matter.
And turnout is nowhere near D +6 for 2016. Polls are way off.
In the military as well. Service members were scared to death but couldn’t wait until the peanut-head Carter left office. Things were in shambles. At RAF Lakenheath, about 30% of the F-111 aircraft could get off the runway at any time. The ‘Elephant Walk’, where they tried to get all available aircraft off at once, was pathetic. Parts were scarce and moral was in the pits.
LOL!
Refuse to die? You mean commit suicide while winning. The MSM can only deny reality for so long. The early voting should dispel any notion that Trump is losing. The numbers are astounding compared to Romney’s and Obama’s numbers in 2012. Something very big is happening on the ground.
Not D +6.
If the polls are right, Ds should be swarming to the polls.
Its off compared to 2012 and even 2008.
There is no way Hillary matches Obama in voter turnout, especially among minorities. Massive voter fraud is her path to victory—her only path.
Yesterday, I was working from my parent’s house and making sure my elderly aunt was ok. Fox News was on. Hour after hour they were practically throwing dirt on Trump’s grave and proclaiming his campaign dead.
They even had some University of Houston academic talking about how Texas only leans Republican and Hillary may have a shot.
I admit, it did demoralize me a little — especially when Shepard Smith gleefully mentioned changes to their election map, all benefiting Hillary. Their source was Real Clear Politics and their map showed Hillary with 300 EV.
Now nothing will stop me from pulling the lever for Trump. My family feels the same way. I can completely understand though how people can become despondent listening to the media.
Fortunately, Free Republic was here to lift my spirits.
There are gonna be TONS of DemocRATS voting for Trump! If they were going to vote for Hillary they would be attending her rallies and have her bumper sticker on their car. They are totally rejecting her! Trump Landslide!
he is still going to vote though right?
OF COURSE!
Dom likes Trump a lot. But the media is waring.
Go Trump!
Fortunately, Free Republic was here to lift my spirits.
Yeah Freepers are all that !!
Lets Focus. The Trump emails are talking about massive $140 million-dollar ad blitz coming soon.
This is needed as grandma pickles ads are full of it but for low information voters, they get hooked.
*For the Children* STAY AWAY FROM MY KIDS!
Thank you to you and your husband.
I went to the rally in my town of St Augustine FL and everyone was saying how disgusting the media are, and how the polls were all fixed, and all it does it make us more determined to go out and vote.
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