Posted on 10/21/2016 7:17:03 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
Wednesday we were stunned to hear a Hillary Clinton campaign spokesperson casually say, “in the next three weeks we expect the polls to tighten significantly.”
This begs the question: "Why would a Clinton spokesperson say the polls would “tighten” let alone say “the polls [would] tighten significantly?”
Why would this be?
Even Natie Silver knows the polls we see are fake and built on fake turnout models ; that’s why.
Because Donald Trump has not been stopped by the fake false accusations against him by women seeking their 15 minute of fame, they have to try something else. That something else is risky, but desperate times make for desperate people.
The obvious ploy the Media- Democrat cabal has to be thinking about is to have polls show Trump closing and closing and taking a lead so they can hit him with a barrage of lies and re-fake the polls to show he is now finally collapsing. Sure this is crazy but the thought of losing has made the left crazy.
The opening move has already been made by the crooks at NBC who are so flummoxed over Trump that they have released state polls showing Trump wining several important states which would be impossible if their national poll so aptly named “The Monkey poll” was correct.
The excellent work from Sundance at theconservativetreehouse.com puts this situation in a light that lets us see what is really going on with the fraudulent manipulation of polling data.
He writes, “Fortunately, we are at the stage in the presidential race where it is actually possible to gauge what’s going on by looking at ballots, early voting, absentee ballot distribution modeling, and comparisons to prior elections. Even if the media doesn’t want to take that approach, we can do it ourselves.”
Sundance credits, “Reader/Contributor “FLEPOREBLOG” [who] has assembled some data to highlight reality. Empirical data rebukes the gaslighting and help people(s) break the abusive cycle of battered voter syndrome:
As to North Carolina FLEPOREBLOG, said, “Folks ask me where is [the] evidence of the Monster Vote. As of 10-15-16 the Party Affiliation in NC are as follows:
Republicans – 30.2%
Democrats – 39.7%
Libertarians – 0.5%
UNA (Independents) – 29.7%
Male Registered Voters: 3,047,319 (44.8%)
Female Registered Voters: 3,613,040 (53.2%)
Didn’t Provide Gender Data: 135,347 (2.0%)
Total Registered Voters: 6,795,706
Data source http://ncsbe2.azurewebsites.net/absentee-data
Latest NC Early Mail Voting as of 10/18
15,610 (+922 from 10/17) more registered Republicans have requested an Early Mail In Ballot as of 10/17 (9.3% Lead up from 9.1% on 10/17 {+0.2%})
Vote-by-Mail Requested (Not Yet Returned)
REP: 67,954 (+2,679 from 10/17)
DEM: 52,344 (+1,757 from 10/17)
LIB: 597 (+29 from 10/17)
UNA: 47,276 (+1,946 from 10/17)
Total Requested: 168,171 (+6,411 from 10/17)
#Trump (Rep): 40.4% (same from 10/17)
#HRC(Dem): 31.1% (-0.2% from 10/17)
Lib: 0.4% (same from 10/17)
UNA: 28.1% (+0.1% from 10/17)
1,742 (+541 from 10/17) more registered Republicans have returned an Early Mail In Ballot as of 10/17 (3.8% Lead up from 2.9% on 10/17 {+0.9%})
Voted-by-Mail Returned & Accepted
Rep: 18,120 (+2,177 from 10/17)
DEM: 16,378 (+1,636 from 10/17)
Lib: 123 (+12 from 10/17)
UNA: 11,618 (+1,261 from 10/17)
Total Returned: 46,239 (+5,086 from 10/17)
#Trump (Rep): 39.2% (+0.5% from 10/17)
#HRC (Dem): 35.4% (-0.4% from 10/17) #Lib: 0.3% (same from 10/17)
# UNA: 25.1% (-0.1% from 10/17)
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/data-points/over-500-000-votes-have-already-been-cast-2016-presidential-n665196 ( New data out) concerning early voting party affiliation in NC
2016: D 37%, R 38%, I 25% (so far)
2012: D 47%, R 32%, I 21%
Interesting stuff for number junkies.
Bellwether Hamilton County Ohio:
Absentee Ballot Requests and Returns as of 10-18-16 http://boe.hamilton-co.org/data/absentee-voters-list.aspx (Source Link)
9,673 (-257 from 10/17) more registered Republicans have requested an Absentee Ballot as of 10/17 (11.5% Lead down from 12.1% on 10/17 {-0.6%})
Vote-by-Mail Requested (Not Yet Returned)
REP: 28,425 (+350 from 10/17)
DEM: 18,752 (+607 from 10/17)
Non-Partisan (Independents): 36,492 (+765 from 10/17)
LIB: 27 (same from 10/17)
Green Party: 58 (+2 from 10/17)
Total Requested: 83,754 (+1,724 from 10/17) Trump#: 33.9% (-0.3% from 10/17)
HRC#: 22.4% (+0.3% from 10/17)
Non-Partisan (Independents): 43.6% (same from 10/17)
LIB: 0.03% (same from 10/17)
Green Party: 0.07% (same from 10/17)
770 (-2 from 10/17) more registered Democrats have returned an Absentee Ballot as of 10/17 (7.7% Lead down from 37.0% on 10/17 {-29.3%})
Voted-by-Mail Returned
REP: 3,101 (+2,798 from 10/17)
DEM: 3,871 (+2,796 from 10/17)
Non-Partisan (Independents): 3,593 (+2,893 from 10/17)
LIB: 5 (+5 from 10/17)
Green Party: 8 (+6 from 10/17)
Total Returned: 10,578 (+8,498 from 10/17)
Trump#: 29.3% (+14.7% from 10/17)
HRC#: 37.0% (-14.7% from 10/17)
Non-Partisan (Independents): 34.0% (+0.3% from 10/17)
LIB: 0.5% (+0.5% from 10/17)
Green Party: 0.8% (+0.7% from 10/17)
We are looking really good in Ohio.
In Florida:
At this point don’t concern yourself with any polls coming out of FL. These tallies which are released daily [are] what is actually happening on the ground. Latest Florida Early Mail Voting as of 10-18-16
5,833 (+5,799 from 10/17) more registered Republicans have returned an Early Mail In Ballot as of 10/17 (+0.9% Lead up from 0.0% on 10/17 {+0.9%})
Rep: 265,657 (+55,0288 from 10/17)
DEM: 259,824 (+49,229 from 10/17)
Other: 17,457 (+3,105 from 10/17)
No Party Affiliation: 96,874 (+19,600 from 10/17)
Total Returned: 639,812 (+126,962 from 10/17)
#Trump (Rep): 41.5% (+0.4% from 10/17)
#HRC(Dem): 40.6% (-0.5% from 10/17)
Other: 2.7% (-0.1% from 10/17)
No Party Affiliation: 15.1% (same from 10/17)
20,832 (-19,720 from 10/17) more registered Republicans have requested an Early Mail In Ballot as of 10/78 (0.9% Lead down from 1.6% on 10/17 {-0.7%})
Vote-by-Mail Requested (Not Yet Returned)
Rep: 940,578 (-41,261 from 10/17)
Dem: 919,746 (-21,541 from 10/17)
Other: 56,490 (-1,622 from 10/17)
No Party Affiliation: 442,731 (-3,690 from 10/17)
Total Requested: 2,359,545 (-68,114 from 10/17)
#Trump (Rep): 39.9% (-0.5% from 10/17)
#HRC (Dem): 39.0% (+0.2% from 10/17)
Other: 2.4% (same from 10/17)
No Party Affiliation: 18.8% (+0.4% from 10/17)
You can track this daily at https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
In Pennsylvania:
Week of 10/10 to 10/16
2,680 Republicans switched to Democrat
4,007 Others (Ind.) switched to Democrat
5,197 Democrats switched to Republican
3,269 Others (Ind) switched to Republican
Yearly Total 2016
42,740 Republicans switched to Democrat
72,988 Others (Ind.) switched to Democrat (Many to Vote for Bernie in Primary)
106,159 Democrats switched to Republican
53,448 Others (Ind) switched to Republican (Many to Vote for Trump)
In Nevada
Early Voting Data from NV comparing early voting %s between 2012 and 2016
NV – 2012 44% D vs. 37% R
NV – 2016 33% D vs. 43% R (+17 points from 2012)
In NV at this time in 2012, the Party Affiliation of D and R was as follows
D = 42.2% (612,050 registered voters)
R = 34.1% (494,494 registered voters)
8.1% difference in favor of D
In NV at this time in 2016, the Party Affiliation of D and R was as follows
D = 39.8% (646,339 registered voters)
R = 33.0% (535,782 registered voters)
6.8% difference in favor of D
Large increase among Independents from 254,149 (17.5%) registered voters in 2012 to 334,960 (20.6%) registered voters in 2016.
Note: From 2012 numbers, Democrats have lost 2.4 % and Republicans have lost 1.1% while independents (favor Trump by 4 points) have seen an increase of their registration of 80,811 new voters.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/10/07/fox-news-poll-clinton-edges-trump-by-two-points-one-month-ahead-election.html
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/10/19/anti-gaslighting-raw-and-current-state-vote-data-not-remotely-close-to-media-polling/
The fake polls have given their best shot to sway voters.
Reality is about to set in real soon for these SOROS paid for fake polls.
With all of the voluminous evidence that every aspect of this filthy process is utterly corrupt, why in the world would I believe polls are sacrosanct?
What is interesting is unsubstantiated accusations against trump are run in the press as gospel daily while accusations through wiki which can be easily shown to be false by releasing the actual ones or showing where they are false are never in the press except at the bottom of a two page article in the last paragraph.
The polls will turn in a last ditch effort to suck every last dime they can from candidates.
Nobody spends on a won race. Lying and saying it’s close will make both sides dump cash on ads.
That used to be the model anyway. Trump has turned it on its head.
HRC still buys into the system. As her “lead” drops, she’ll drop a shit-ton of cash on ads.
Bfl
Clinton and the MSM have a difficult balancing act. How to fix the polls so that Trump voters get discouraged and stay home while at the same time not making Clinton voters complacent and stay home?
The answer is to show Clinton way ahead in the weeks before the election and then “tighten” the polls so that Clinton is still ahead but not too far ahead right before the election.
Off course, there's a risk here that if they show Trump as level or ahead, it would merely further enthuse his base, or persuade some floaters to go with the winner. We'll see, but the polls will tighten a lot.
Right because being accurately is important, but they ‘gotta win this motherfu&$er.’
The irony here is the more she is "seen" the less she is liked. She will lose on 11/8/2016.
What is Bfl? I don’t know how true this is but it was going around on Twitter.
NC RECENT ELECTIONS
2012
48.4% 50.4% Romney won
2008
49.7% 49.4% Obama won
Mitt won it after Obama had barely eke out over McCain in ‘08. But it was a pyric victory in that he still lost the election.
Wow. Frigging northerners making it tight.
i’m from the north and I hate them.
Bump for later
Thanks. I was afraid it meant Big Fat Lie. :-)
Romney in the one most relevant. BO has a mediocre approval rating - Romney had a decent (not good) message, but he still lost.
I have to wonder if that was because he did not energize the conservative base, did not attract enough traditional votes (I.e. married women) or what
video: BUSTED! Hillary Superpac PAYING OFF NBC WSJ Clinton FAKE +11 Point Poll lead
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