Posted on 10/19/2016 11:19:00 AM PDT by OneVike
TRUMP 41% -- Hillary 41% DEAD HEAT
Rasmussen's poll released today has Trump tied with Hillary ahead of the last debate tonight. 41% to 41%. There are a couple eye openers that should be a huge worry for the Hillary campaign;
The older the voter is, the more likely he or she is to vote and to vote for Trump.
The older the voter, the more they remember the "90"s and who the Clintons are. Plus younger voters are turned off by Hillary and thus less apt to even vote this year. Democrat candidates loses every time the young voters do not vote
Trump is ahead among whites and other minority voters but remains far behind among blacks.
This is HUGE, because if Trump leads among all white voters, then it shows a flaw their poll. There are not enough voting age black Americans to make up for Trumps lead among white voters. Which means they over sampled black Americans.
Trump leads Hillary 58 percent to 31 with white Americans without a 4 year college degree.
NOT just just Americans who never went to college, but Americans who went to college for a year or two but never graduating. Hillary only leads among those Americans who graduated with a 4 year degree. Big difference than no college education at all. There are millions and millions of Americans who went to college but never ever graduated, or even just received a 2 year degree.
I cannot emphasize the last point too much, because according to this article by the Washington Post, not since Ronald Reagan in 1980, has a candidate held such a large support among white registered voters who did not have a four-year college degree. Trump is leading Hillary by 27 points in this category. That is huge, because it is similar to what Reagan received.
Finally, Trump still leads among white women by 3%.
Why is this important you ask? Well when you consider the population of black women in America, there is not enough of them to give Hillary the lead they claim she has among all women in America. You do the math, it ain't there! Which again points to their over sampling of black Americans in a year that the black vote will not be as big as it was when Obama ran.
Seriesly, though, getting millenials to vote when pot was on the ballot worked. Now, they have it.
CO votes by mail. Little effort required. Just one more way rats consolidated power in that state.
May I borrow that phrase?
According to your prediction, you have 0% Democrats voting for independents, 0% Republicans voting for independents, and only 4% of independents voting for independents. That’s an unrealistic prediction. My predictions are:
37% Democrat, 35% Republican, and 28% Independent by party affiliation.
For the Democrats, 85% vote for Clinton, 15% vote for Trump, and 0% vote for independents.
For the Republicans, 85% vote for Trump, 15% vote for Clinton, and 0% vote for independents.
For the Independents, 35% vote for Clinton, 45% vote for Trump, and 20% vote for independents.
Clinton wins (0.37)(0.85) + (0.35)(0.15)+ (0.28)(0.35) = 46.5%
Trump wins (0.37)(0.15) + (0.35)(0.85) + (0.28)(0.45) = 47.9%
Everybody else(Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, and the others) wins (0.37)(0) + (0.35)(0) + (0.28)(0.20) = 5.6%
Amen.
Those bastiges.
Except Hillsdale, which is nonsectarian.
I can identify with rednecks......they’re my people. All the college degrees in the world won’t get you squat if you don’t have COMMON SENSE.....ergo, my people have gotten along just fine and are the most patriotic people I know. Hub’s niece has a PHD and she’s dumber than a box of hair.......;)
TRUMP voters go beyond likely voters and the usual suspects. Trump is drawing Catholics and Evangelicals together and Democrats, and independents.
Mostly he draws a Movement full of crawl through glass types that are in WAR CRY mood to vote.
Hill struggles everywhere even in her typical demos with retaining even iftheir interest. Enthusiasm is out of the question.
Trump leads among THINKING Americans 98 to 2.
>>That non-college educated gets it far more than college educated do, is a major indictment of our higher education system.<<
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Thank you! That is a point I have been fishing for the last few weeks. I knew it was out there somewhere!
I like your math @63 and it’s as sound as anything else I have read. I don’t think people should have much trust in these polls that are fluctuating wildly this close to the election. When I see these polls saying she is up 7 from down 3 for a 10 pt swing my BS meter pegs.
Trump is in this thing - of that, I have no doubt. The real question for me is “can Hillary and the DNC crank up the same machine that propelled Obama to victory and almost elected Gore?”
Even the left admits that there is not much in the way of enthusiasm for Hillary, but they have found the votes they needed. If it is a big turn-out for Trump and a mediocre turn-out for her we will be happy. If she gets the turn-out that Obama did we will not be happy.
Roger that. I/we have known a number of Phuds and rocks are a step up as far as common sense. Give us some good ol boys anyday. Coonasses are awesome too.
You betcha......lol
True.
As one data point: I was 20 in 1980, 24 in 1984, and no college. Voted Reagan.
This election I have a Masters.
Unlike how they reacted to Mittens by staying home, they'll be out in full force come election day!
Nope! The working man!
Just fixing my tagline
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