Posted on 10/19/2016 9:47:46 AM PDT by IBD editorial writer
After more than a week of blistering attacks from Democrats, celebrities and the press, Donald Trump has managed to pull ahead of Hillary Clinton by 1 percentage point — 41.3% to 40% — in a four-way matchup, according to the new IBD/TIPP poll released today. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson got 8% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein got 6%. The results are the first in the IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll. Daily updates start Thursday and will continue until the election. The IBD/TIPP poll previously was monitoring support for the candidates in the 2016 election on a monthly basis.
(Excerpt) Read more at investors.com ...
I don’t think it has to be a “monster” vote exactly.
There are several blocks of voters this year that are not huge but significant when added together.
1) People who for a long time have believed the system is rigged. They don’t usually vote, they don’t identify with a political party and they don’t respond to polls. They are for Trump and there is no way pollsters have accounted for them in their samples.
2) Democrat crossovers who normally vote for Democrat, and can’t stand Republicans, but this year it’s Clinton they can’t stand. This includes union and non union blue collar workers, women, minorities. The pollsters may have a partial handle on this but may be vastly underestimated - many of these crossovers are very shy about admitting it.
3) Republicans like me. I’ve always voted Republican, always wishing the nominee could be more conservative, but voting R anyway. This year I feel like I get my wish: I believe Trump IS conservative, and I just can’t wait to vote for him. I have never been this motivated. Pollsters and pundits act like this kind of voter (like me) doesn’t exist. They talk as though conservative republicans are all like Mark Levin, embarrassed about Trump, hoping he’ll lose to make room for a GOPe like Ryan in 2020. I think there are more like me than they think. Why do they think his rallies are so well attended?
Anyway, I’m hoping there are enough people left with half a brain. This election couldn’t be more of a no brainer.
How do I know all this? It’s purely anecdotal.
I know nothing, but then again - neither do they!
That was the most accurate in 2012 and still has an A- rating from 538. Should keep an eye out on this one.
You’re talking about millions of Americans who for the past several decades just stopped voting for whatever reasons. Most of which was because they were totally sold out, looted and disenfranchised by the system.
Those folks will be coming out of the woodwork for Trump, just for the payback factor alone.
Bet the rent.
Sure hope so!!
Not every poll out today has tied or lead. 2 polls out today have Clinton +4 (Economist and Reuters) and one has Clinton +9 (bloomberg)
If Hillary wins it will be the last election with two candidates representing different ideas; we’ll continue seeing “Republicans” win, but they will be Republicans of the sort that are currently endorsing Hillary - “Republocrats”.
I’m a long time subscriber to IBD and this is good news, can you give more details on voter turnout models, etc. on this poll ?
TIPP was the most accurate pollster in the 2012 presidential election. Rasmussen biased Romney by almost 4 points I think.
Reason for hope. :)
Thanks so very much for sharing your brilliant insight,
NOTE ON ESSENTIAL TACTICS with me.
Indeed, I yearn for the restoration of traditional values in our nation.
We are suffering greatly for removing God from our schools and public square, leading us into the societal decline we are experiencing.
I love when Trump proclaims that there is no limit to the heights we can achieve if we all come together, united under one God, and saluting the Stars and Stripes!!!
The horrible disrespect seen in professional sports, with players (led by SF QB Kaepernick) in kneeling during the National Anthem should be condemned.
Also, Obama, Hitlery and the dems champion BLM, inciting a virtual open season attitude against law enforcement. It is, moreover, alarming that this climate has resulted in police departments finding it difficult to recruit new officers.
Trump’s policy of not telegraphing how he would defeat Radical Islamic Terrorism is absolutely the right response.
What’s more, he is the only one calling for extreme vetting to keep the enemy from infiltrating our borders.
Additionally, he is the sole candidate who cared enough to meet with and support The Remembrance Families, who have lost loved ones to crimes perpetrated by illegals who should not have been here in the first place.
We need the Wall, the termination of sanctuary cities and adherence to immigration laws.
Thank God for Trump’s unbridled patriotism—and he is already my President in my hear, mind and soul!!!
Thanks again for your tremendous post!
Simply Magnificent!!!
Appreciate your sharing this beautiful post with me!!
Trump is already my President in my heart and cannot wait to hear him called President-Elect November 8!!!
Poll bump
But when the People get inside that private voting booth, I think many will pull the lever for Donald Trump and not Hillary Clinton.
These tracking polls with higher samples must be more reliable than the polls sponsored and promulgated by biased organizations.
The Revolution is ON!
Vote Trump!
No wonder the evil burha came out of hiding...why? If you have between 11 and 12 point lead I would have canceled this debate! It’s all a façade none of it is real I heard this poll has always been accurate in the past elections! She really couldn’t afford not to be in this debate let’s put it that way!
Is Donald Trump our Cyrus?
God Bless you and yours!
IBD/TIPP has been the most accurate poll in the last three presidential election cycles.
Reince Preibus was on FOX several weeks ago. They cited CNN’s poll that looked worse in a 2-way, than a 4-way race...
Preibus called them out. They ALWAYS cite the worst poll possible, even if it’s someone else’s poll!
Just amazing
.... I really find it curious that there was supposedly a video of Bill actually doing the dirty deed with a 13 year old ..... And now suddenly there is this "Surprise" accusation coming out with the same charge about this against Trump.
Polls are all over the place. The sample in this one is tiny, so personally I disregard these.
I can't wait to see all those bastards lose their minds when Trump wins. They'll keep talking about how their polls had the Wicked Witch winning and fail to understand that the People are not bound by what the propaganda polls say.
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