Posted on 10/19/2016 5:59:27 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist
Averaging together measurements that are performed in different ways does not improve the accuracy of the measurement taken in the way that proves correct.
Some recent article praised the value of averaging. There would be value if you were measuring the length of a floor and all the measuring people used the same tape measure. Then averaging the measurement would have value.
But if each uses a different tape measure, there is no particular value in averaging.
Oh, and it’s worse than even that.
If you tell each person measuring the floor what everyone else is getting for a result, they will take their measurement and fudge it to be closer to everyone else.
The GOPe and the MSM would have hillary up 20 if they thought they could get away with it.
Agree - it’s apples and... other kinds of apples here (it’s not so different as apples and oranges).
I don’t envy the job of the pollsters: they have to guess, and for the most part they have an interest in getting it right. But it should be telling at this stage that the _best_ Trump has going for him right now is a tie... and the stories of Democrat panic have also subsided in recent weeks.
So yeah - I have strong concerns.
10% "undecided"? Or "not saying"?
If most of the alleged "undecideds" pull the lever for Trump, then it will be a landslide.
So you think that a +14 Dem is as valid as a +5 Dem when the same polls show a +11 voter enthusiasm for Trump.
You are assuming the polls are accurate when they have been proved wrong all year. I am saying nobody knows the true formula so they are all wrong. They most likely reflect the bias of the media.
Nah, that’s not the best. Maybe Rasumussen feels pressure from the other polls and offers up a tie when it’s actually a lead.
Voter enthusiasm is reflected only in the likely voter measurement. Already built into the measurement.
A chad punched really hard counts the same as one punched tentatively.
Cute little snarky comment.
It has nothing to do with that. It has to do with those Dems who will stay home rather than vote for Hillary vs people willing to walk through fire to vote for Trump.
Appreciate the cheap shot though.
Especially if the people doing the measuring are blindfolded liars and the length of the floor is constantly changing! :-)
So if you’re not a troll, you need to educate yourself about how polls work and the psychology behind them. They want to discourage Trump supporters to stay home so Hillary wins by default. That’s why they use terms like “plummeted” to describe a 1 point drop by Trump, and the next day claim that Hillary dropped by “a statistically insignificant” point the next day.
Make sure you check the internals of every poll. If they widely oversample Democrats, women, or college graduates, then disregard the poll.
Don’t fall for their tricks. The establishment wants the status quo, and they’ll do whatever it takes to keep it. It’s up to us, Trump supporters, to thwart them at every turn.
They don’t have an interest in getting it right until the last week before the election. They want to salvage their reputation for the next election at that point so they look prescient. Until that time, they only have an interest in pleasing the people who hired them to shape public opinion their way.
Thanks very much for the words of admonition, duly noted.
I have educated myself and dug deep into a network of Trump followers on twitter—especially Bill Mitchell who dissects virtually every poll.
He debunks so many polls and exposes the oversamples and contradictory internal tabs.
It’s just a nerve-racking time right now, coming so close to election day.
I am eager to cast my vote for Trump on November 8.
Sadly, I am in a deep blue state, Maryland, that isn’t in play. I have a bottle of champagne and hope to pop the cork and celebrate our nation’s own Brexit!!!
The issue, as has been said before is that Trump energized a bunch of new voters. These will not be counted as likely voters yet many will vote this time. I think, I have no scientific proof of it, that you can 2 to 3 percent on to Trump’s totals in these polls. Maybe more than that in some states
I’m in Arizona, and did you hear? WE ARE GOING BLUE FOR HILLARY!!!! Balderdash! They oversampled Democrats by 18%, women by 9%, and college graduates by 28%, and she still only “won” by 5 points! I’d be suicidal if I hadn’t learned about checking the internals a few election cycles ago. It’s just appalling the depths the left will go to in order to keep the status quo.
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