Posted on 10/17/2016 6:50:20 AM PDT by imardmd1
According to FiveThirtyEight's Election Forecast, Trump entered October with a 32.7 percent
chance of winning the 2016 election. But after just two weeks, Trump now stands at a dismal
13.4 percent chance of victory according to polls and only 11.2 percent chance if the
election were held today, showing that perhaps even The Donald isn't immune to such a
mounting list of controversies.
(Excerpt) Read more at aol.com ...
I wish pot was legal everywhere so All the worried FReepers could buy about 4 or 5 ounces to get them through the election.
#### the polls.
They’re just that. Polls.
If they decided the election, then i would be concerned.
But that voting thing still happens on the eighth.
This is great. In the instructions to Hillarys Troll Army, there were instructions to make frequent references to 538 because they were in Hillarys pocket.
And here it is! LOL
The problem here is the Polling aggregators treat all polls as equal. That means if someone thumb is on the scale at say, NBC, it skew the results in a certain direction.
According to SevenNinetySeven’s Forecaster Forecast, AOL.commie is still a full bucket of festering, steaming dogcrap.
October/November
Reagan Carter Anderson
40% 44% 9%
39% 45% 9%
47% 44% 8%
Actual result
51% 41% 7%
hmm.
Has 538 explained why some polls are using such a skewed amount of Democrats? Didn’t think so.
Trump will win in a landslide.
I don’t like this result therefore 538 is wrong.
538 gave Trump a very low chance of winning the nomination, right?
AOL’s track record on predicting the future isn’t so great
Pretty much how it works. I remember reading the exact same thing in 2008 and 2012. The polls are wrong... the polls are wrong!!! And they weren’t wrong. I believe 538 picked every state..... yet for some reason this year he’s way off. I’m not buying it.
Trump spends way too much time talking about the bimbo attacks instead of staying on message. Hillary Clinton is the most beatable candidate the Dems have put up in decades, and we’re blowing it. Makes me want to start drinking before noon.
Exactly. Too many people are living and dying with every poll and not sleeping because of the thought of vote fraud. We can only do what we can and that’s vote, and convince the fence sitters to vote for Trump. Let the man upstairs ultimately decide our fate as a nation. I believe he will guide the majority of Americans to do the right thing, and will punish those who will try to harm this nation. Faith is what keeps me going or else I would be in the ranks of the constant worriers and hand wringers.
But FiveThirtyEights isn’t so bad. Especially in 2012. They nailed every state.
The script can't have a close race, because that would motivate Trump supporters. The script MUST be that Clinton is crushing Trump, the election is over. The polls will support the script, and the press will reinforce the script with the usual poll plus speculation (reasons why) cocktail.
It's all gaslighting.
This isn’t even a “poll”, the author is just pulling Nate Silver’s worthless ‘Hillary has a 99% of beating Sanders in Michigan!’ numbers.
With the 24/7 media hype about the recent accusations, no wonder the public is rating him lower.
The polls reflect the emotion of the moment, not reasoned thinking. But then, the American public is not capable of reasoned thinking.
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