The polling data we’re being fed is based on the 2012 turnout model.
I think we can all agree, that’s not realistic in 2016. Our side will shatter records this year.
I think they are on to something and make some valid points or at least hypothesis. If you examine American politics recently I think people on both sides of the spectrum feel betrayed by our elected leaders.
We had the TEA party and they swept the GOP into controlling congress. What changed? Nothing - they did not cut spending by a dime. This made a populist outsider candidate much more popular.
The left had Occupy Wall Street and many of them gravitated to Sanders - another person who seemed to be an outsider. Meanwhile, on the heels of Obama who promised grandiose things and changed nothing you have mainstream democrats who are deflated with the results. What was the DNC’s answer to all of this political angst? They rigged the game against the DNC version of a populist - Sanders - and they nominated the ultimate insider.
This is already a “rebellion” election on the right, but what if it is a rebellion election on the left? There is very little enthusiasm for Clinton and I think even many of their pundits openly admit this.
If I am right and this piece is on to something - we might be pleasantly surprised in November and it might be far worse for the DNC than we think.
October/November
Reagan Carter Anderson
40% 44% 9%
39% 45% 9%
47% 44% 8%
Actual result
51% 41% 7%
The ghetto crowd doesn’t get excited about midterms, it’s all about the POTUS to them.
Polling is an exact science. The problem is not with polling -- as the article makes clear. The problem is with connecting two different populations: the people you reach in a poll, and the people who vote on election day.
If you poll 1000 adults truly at random, their opinion on a yes no question will have a 95% confidence interval of around +/- 3% for the entire population of 250 million adults.
That is exact a statistical consequence of the Central Limit Theorem and there is no aberration from it; if there were, so many aspects of the world -- including the basic physics of the universe -- would fall apart.
Next, if you randomly examine the ballots of 1000 people who have just voted, you will be able to predict with 95% confidence what the percentages of votes are in the entire voting population to within about +/-3%. Again, there is really no arguing with this.
When FReepers say, "How can these polls be right, they involve so few people?" This is nonsense, pure and simple. It is as dumb as thinking that you have to flip a coin ten million times before you will get close to 50% heads. There is a 95% chance you will get 50% heads +/- just 0.01% by flipping the coin only 10,000 times. It is not the polls per se that break down. What breaks down is the predictive model that attempts to say how the actual voting population on election day compares with the population answering the poll right now. That is where the error comes in. Not in the math, but in the various theories that attempt to relate two different populations -- which are never the same -- to each other.
We as Republicans know very well that it really stinks being given a “it’s my turn” candidate.
Don’t think this applies to presidential elections so much. Turn out has been up in every election since 1988. The only time it’s been down is 2012, and the Dems won that one.
It was low turn out because of low enthusiasm which is the case today.
From a piece I posted earlier:
A New Gallup survey has determined that enthusiasm among Democrats is at a 16 year low
Gallup has also found that in general ENTHUSIASM among Democrats is at a 16 year low.
In regard to Gallup’s findings, The Washington Examiner commented, “Just 65 percent of Democrats plan to vote in the election, and it’s just 47 percent among all voters aged 18-34, a trend that has the party worried about the lack of enthusiasm for Hillary Rodham Clinton. Republicans hold an 11-point advantage in those planning to vote, 76 percent to 65 percent, but the GOP vote is also at a 16-year low, but by three points compared to nine for the Democrats.”
A compilation of three recent polls that are generally unfriendly to Trump, shows the CNN/ORN poll had her down in enthusiasm among supporters 58/46, the Washington Post/ABC NEWS poll had Clinton down 46/33 and a New York Times/CBS survey showed Clinton behind 45/36 in supporter enthusiasm.
All three linked at
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/296360-enthusiasm-gap-looms-for-clinton
The rats since bill have been stealing the elections right from under our noses, the only way to win is MASS TRUNOUT AND LANDSLIDE VICTORY
Dems will only turn out for Obama.
Hillary hasn’t done anything to earn the black vote.
This is the weak spot in the polling. Without Obama on the ticket, few blacks will vote.
Only the dead vote Democratic.
The ones who are enthused in this election are those who are voting against Hillary and the Establishment.
What the Dems are doing now is keeping Hillary out of sight and creating scandal after scandal against Trump in an effort to make him as unpopular as she is. While she’s out of sight, people forget how loathsome she it.
Beware of loving family/friends who try to get you to vote for anyone but Hillary or Trump. They need the regular Republican voters to NOT vote for Trump. They don’t care if you vote for Hillary, just don’t vote for Trump.