October/November
Reagan Carter Anderson
40% 44% 9%
39% 45% 9%
47% 44% 8%
Actual result
51% 41% 7%
“October/November
Reagan Carter Anderson
40% 44% 9%
39% 45% 9%
47% 44% 8%
Actual result
51% 41% 7%”
The 47 44 8 last poll before the election was a “cover your a__” poll that was taken before the election but.....
wait for it....
was not publicly available until _after_ the election.
So when folks went into the voting booths in November 1980 they believed the numbers were 39 45 9 if they trusted the New York Times, Washington Post etal.
This means that they were shocked to learn that the polls were off by twelve points on the Reagan vote.
The notion that so many people decided to vote for Reagan at the last minute is Monday morning quarterbacking and speculation at best.
The media bias against Reagan was amazing to behold, and it is unreasonable to believe that liberal pollsters were able to keep their strong anti-Reagan biases from affecting their selection of questions, potential voters and their analysis and adjustment of the data.
Just as today, the polls were part of the narrative designed to cast the Republican candidate as an extremist, crazy, unfit to be President, etc.
Here is an example of a New York Times “hit piece” on Reagan in October 1980: