The polling data we’re being fed is based on the 2012 turnout model.
I think we can all agree, that’s not realistic in 2016. Our side will shatter records this year.
You are correct - the 2012 models don’t capture this election and they will be wrong because they assume that Clinton will get the same votes as Obama. Won’t happen.
The alienation of Sanders supporters (usually reliable voters) may be viewed by history as a fatal mistake by her. Did she truly need to play the games she did to defeat him? Perhaps she did, but she may have won the battle (primary) and lost the war (election). Isn’t it par for the course that the media (and FR) spent so much time agonizing over Cruz supporters abandoning Trump when they were a fraction of Sanders supporters in real numbers?
In the end, more than anything Trump did or did not do, despite all of the hand wringing by a GOP elite that nobody likes..... it may be Clinton who has the knife in her back on election day.
Plus it assumes Romney’s 27% of Hispanic vote. Trump is getting 38%.