Hurricane Matthew

NOAA/NHC ^ | 1 October 2016 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Matthew is big, bad and just downright scary, and we await the long anticipated sharp turn northward. Jamaica is completing final storm preparations. All interests in the Eastern U.S. and Bahamas should be carefully watching the track of Mighty Matthew.

Ripped straight from the NHC Discussion page:

Matthew remains south of a low-to mid-level ridge over
the western Atlantic. The dynamical models forecast this ridge to
weaken over the next 72 hours as a mid- to upper-level trough develops
over the Gulf of Mexico. This evolution should cause Matthew to turn
northwestward after 24 hours and northward by 48-72 hours. The guidance
generally agrees with this scenario. However, there is a spread between
the GFS forecast of landfall in Jamaica and eastern Cuba and the ECMWF
forecast landfall in southwestern Haiti. The guidance becomes more
divergent after 72 hours.

Cone of Death Historic Archive Loop

Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links

Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
Buoy 42058 Central Caribbean (in storm path)
Florida & Eastern Gulf Buoy Locations
SE Atlantic Coast Buoy Locations

SE U.S. Radar Sector
Gitmo Radar (primitive)
Jamaica Radar Loop (primitive)

If the info above doesn't satisfy your need for speed and graphics, strap yourself in for a ride to Mike's Weather Page

[GOPJ]

A few more spaghetti strings moving toward the Tampa Bay Area.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_tracks_latest.png

[GOPJ]

I knew a police officer years ago who would go out and talk to people who refused to leave barrier islands..

He had a great technique - he carried an indelible ink pen with him - the only weapon he needed. When he would run into someone staying they would start in on him saying things like, "it's a free country - you can't force me to leave". He would smile and explain he was cool with that, but that he would appreciate it if they would use his pen and put their social security number on their arm. That stopped them - - they would ask why - and he would tell them it would make it easier to identify the bodies... save him a lot of time.

Try it - tell your Mom that it would be a favor to the first responders...

[NautiNurse]

Great idea! I was thinking about a toe tag. I like your idea better.

[nralife]

Thanks for keeping me on the ping list and for all the good you do.

[NautiNurse]

The Hurricane Watch along the East Coast of Florida has been
extended northward to Fernandina Beach.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* north of Golden Beach to Sebastian Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles.

Max sustained winds...125 mph...
Moving...N at 10 mph...
Pressure...962 mb...

On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

[who knows what evil?]

Ho, ho, ho, Red Hampshire...no rain for you! (The extreme drought rolls on.)

[SE Mom]

Uhmm...checking around different sites. Now showing Matthew does a loop and comes BACK hitting Florida again.

Thanks for your updates, NN.

[SE Mom]

Of course in a normal world the press would investigate and cover what the CF has done in Haiti. But this is not a time of normalcy, is it?

[NautiNurse]

It does appear that Matthew has the potential to become loopy, but that is a lifetime away by storm prediction standards. It seems the NHC has its hands full sorting out Matthew’s first pass along the FL coast.

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Local Statements:

Miami FL
Melbourne FL
Jacksonville FL
Key West FL

[Alas Babylon!]

Same thing for me EXACTLY 21 years ago today!

Hurricane Opal. Max gust of 95 MPH far inland at Maxwell AFB in Montgomery.

Lost lots of beautiful pines and pecans. Big crash in middle of night. Saw pine needles/branches up against house thru bedroom window. At sun up, my favorite pine was JUST barely touching the house; missed crushing us!

[cll]

Good luck, Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas.

[rodguy911]

Looking at the latest spaghettis we need more info on what steers these things especially if we are anticipating a storm that does a u turn/circle. That would be unique at the very least.

[rodguy911]

Gotcha thanks NN.
I guess the biggest jeopardy for surging seas onto the land would be a high tide combined with a storm surge. That would do maximum damage in most cases.

[rodguy911]

Cool, when you do it hour by our you see how these storms really move.Mostly erratic.

[rodguy911]

OMG what a maze!

[NautiNurse]

Nothing quite as frightening as a nighttime hurricane. As for pecans—the old tree in the front yard sheds at least one 15+ft limb during every storm season. They sure are brittle trees for storm prone locales. Then too, we never get pecans off that tree. The squirrels grab ‘em all every year.

[rodguy911]

What the Clinton's have done to the poorest black people in the Caribbean,the Haitians--mostly poor and black, is a criminal act.Its a huge story that with only a few exceptions like Sean Hannity that our side is too stupid to cover.

Hannity said yesterday that 13 billion was designated as disaster aid for Haiti after the earthquakes which ravaged the country.It never got there thanks to the Clinton mobsters and their foundation.

If only half of that money had made it there they could have rebuilt an enormous amount of areas that had been devastated. Instead the Clintons did what they always do with black people; they savaged them after they had a good PR session and then went on to their next mark, the American people in our final election for potus.

[NautiNurse]

I guess the biggest jeopardy for surging seas onto the land would be a high tide combined with a storm surge. That would do maximum damage in most cases.

Absolutely! I've always found it most reliable to to follow local hurricane statements (along with local tide tables) when estimating surge potential. Our local weather news guys are very good about providing good/bad predictions for storm surge potential in relation to low/high tides.

[MD Expat in PA]

Looking at the latest spaghettis we need more info on what steers these things especially if we are anticipating a storm that does a u turn/circle. That would be unique at the very least.

There have been other hurricanes that have done similar loop backs.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h1 hour ago Pennsylvania, USA

Matthew left behind loop certainly possible. Look at these Esther 1961, Ginny 1963 , Ginger 1971 and Ivan 2004. Hermine crawled this year

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/783614147590184960

There is a ridge to the northeast of Matthew that is shifting westward (a subtropical system that developed off the coast of NC) that will stop northern movement and a mid- to upper-level trough approaching the eastern United States that will push Matthew to the east and then possibly back south as it gets caught between the two systems. And then there is TS Nicole although I don’t know if that is having any effect.