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Posted on 10/01/2016 7:00:34 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Matthew is big, bad and just downright scary, and we await the long anticipated sharp turn northward. Jamaica is completing final storm preparations. All interests in the Eastern U.S. and Bahamas should be carefully watching the track of Mighty Matthew.
Ripped straight from the NHC Discussion page:
Matthew remains south of a low-to mid-level ridge over
the western Atlantic. The dynamical models forecast this ridge to
weaken over the next 72 hours as a mid- to upper-level trough develops
over the Gulf of Mexico. This evolution should cause Matthew to turn
northwestward after 24 hours and northward by 48-72 hours. The guidance
generally agrees with this scenario. However, there is a spread between
the GFS forecast of landfall in Jamaica and eastern Cuba and the ECMWF
forecast landfall in southwestern Haiti. The guidance becomes more
divergent after 72 hours.
Cone of Death Historic Archive Loop
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
Buoy 42058 Central Caribbean (in storm path)
Florida & Eastern Gulf Buoy Locations
SE Atlantic Coast Buoy Locations
SE U.S. Radar Sector
Gitmo Radar (primitive)
Jamaica Radar Loop (primitive)
If the info above doesn't satisfy your need for speed and graphics, strap yourself in for a ride to Mike's Weather Page
The NHC trys to take the wobbles out of the equation but that's what really happens.
I remember Hurricane Hazel = I was just a mere child but I remember it. It came inland through Raleigh where I lived. Many huge Oak Trees were down.
Then there was hurricane Fran which did damage even worse than Hazel.
If it looks like Matthew is coming inland directly over us in central NC (not very likely as of now)- I plan to leave and go West. I almost went nuts listening to the winds during Hurricane Fran and don’t plan to ever go through that again if I can possibly avoid it.
I would agree. He was in marathon this week for a while. You gotta remember this guy doesn’t have to endure all this aggravation. He’s well off. He could just disappear on a vacant island and live happily ever after but he’s not. He’s doing the right thing for the state.
Really good question.Most likely somewhere between 40-60 mph especially if its for a longer duration.
Unfortunately The Weather Channel went down several notches a few years ago when it was bought by NBC. It’s all glitz and glamour,fast talkers,one nuisance show following another instead of weather, and driveby BS these days. Still some really good people are there, Cantori, and of course “my queen” Stephany Abrams former gator and truly brilliant gal and may others.
OMG--Hurricane Fran was horrible inland! Had a tree leaned against the roof for 105 long, miserable days in an apartment. A 'possum took up residence. Horrible.
Excellent explanation of storm surge and storm tide.Two different animals.
Storm tide is very important. Not so much here in the Keys where we have one and two feet tides but by the time you get to NC where you have 5-7 foot tides add a wave on top of that and then add a storm surge on top of that and you have the Hatteras road washed out very easily even with all the sand barriers there.
Wow.
Fran’s destruction looked like a battle zone - it was so horrible. Trees down everywhere. If I remember right, the winds were “just” 80 MPH but there was thought that a tornado spun out of the storm also. Whether or not there was a tornado, there was damage unlike anything I had ever seen since Hazel. I don’t want that to ever happen again.
Seems difficulty to understand...we need something that says 4-6 foot surge, 3-5 foot sure, a little bit easier to digest.
Fran taught me to loathe nighttime hurricanes. As the sun came, the amount of tree damage and flash flooding was astonishing. A short time later, the sound of chainsaws was like a beautiful symphony as they cleared the roads. I drove 20 miles toward Greensboro before finding a shop open for a hot cup of coffee. After that, I vowed to always be hurricane prepared. Then I moved to Florida.
The interactive program above has a drop down menu to choose storm surge in feet. The default is >3 ft. The map shows color legend for probability of surge > 3ft. Coastal Georgia is showing the highest potential for storm surge overall.
Yes, I will never forget Fran coming through in the dark of night. That night was just terrifying as I kept hearing the roar, roar, roar of the wind and then the crack and thump of huge pine trees coming down around my house. Fortunately, the worst tree that fell crashed on my driveway but missed the house. And, yes, the chainsaws went to work and all our neighbors pitched in to clear the driveways and the streets and the homes of the downed trees.
Yes it will - and add to that the crack and thuds of large trees coming down through the night - and it made for one horrible horrible experience. Never want to go through that again.
Yeah.
(GROWL)
I reminded her that if she changes her mind in the middle of the storm, nobody was coming to rescue her. Besides that, she says her roof is leaking two days before a hurricane.
Well....after having the poop scared out of me once because I didn't evacuate (when I lived in Texas), I don't hesitate to leave when these things get to close.
A good scare will set her straight
Max sustained winds...130 mph...
Moving...N at 8 mph... Pressure...950 mb...
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
175 miles
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
Thanks for memory! When I was a kid in New Orleans, Dad had a map of the Caribbean and Gulf mounted to a board. We’d take a jar lid and thumb-tack the center of it to the lat/lon coordinates reported by the news.
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